TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on May 14, 2011, 11:58:10 PM
-
May 15th marks the start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Although I'm not expecting any tropical development for a few more days, I figured this would be a good time to open up the official Hurricane Central 2011 thread. Here are the storm names for the 2011 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons:
Atlantic
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney
Eastern Pacific
Adrian, Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon, Selma, Todd, Veronica, Wiley, Xina, York, Zelda
-
Thanks, Mac! I edited your post so that the names don't take up as much space. Welcome to Hurricane Central 2011! Use this thread for all general tropical discussions and questions. As a slight change for this year, please keep posts about invests in this thread as well. Once a system becomes at least a subtropical or a tropical depression, then you may create a separate topic to track the storm. Even after the storm is gone, you're free to ask questions or discuss about it until the season is over. Enjoy! B)
-
Note that Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney are all new names for this season as replacements for the hurricanes of the devastating 2005 hurricane season.
-
Note that Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney are all new names for this season as replacements for the hurricanes of the devastating 2005 hurricane season.
Oh, that's right - the 2005 list is getting recycled (although barely!) this year. I almost forgot!
-
Note that Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney are all new names for this season as replacements for the hurricanes of the devastating 2005 hurricane season.
OK wow, a couple of these names are way too similar to the devastating storm names they are replacing. :blink:
Katia / Katrina
Rina / Rita
-
A new storm cluster is currently being investigated in the Pacific Basin, and given a 20% chance of development into a tropical system. The Atlantic is also stirring, with another cluster with a 20% chance of development.
-
There is now a moderate chance of tropical development of an area of low pressure today as a storm system makes its way southwestward towards Florida today. The NHC has given this storm system a 30% chance of development.
-
Invest 93L is moving through right now .. strong line of storms passed by ~1 hour ago
-
I'll be moving to Daytona Beach next month... and I certainly hope this isn't a foreshadowing of things to come! No hurricanes, please... :cry3:
-
I'll be moving to Daytona Beach next month... and I certainly hope this isn't a foreshadowing of things to come! No hurricanes, please... :cry3:
Well at least with hurricanes you have time to get out. Just don't be hesitant to leave.
-
I was kind of surprised to see low pressure centers coming off the Africa coast. They fall apart pretty quickly, but there had to have been two areas that had a circulation.
-
I thought this NHC statement for the recap of May in the Eastern Pacific was rather interesting given the factoid in the last sentence:
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. ON AVERAGE...ABOUT ONE TROPICAL
STORM FORMS EVERY OTHER YEAR DURING MAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONLY THE
SECOND TIME SINCE THE YEAR 2000 THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT
FORMED DURING THE MONTH.
-
Oh, wow. Well, two systems are being looked at, one in each basin. Invest 94L shows some pretty good potential for development over the next 48 hours. NHC gives it a 30% chance at the moment as it remains stationary.
The second system, in the Pacific, also remains stationary and has a 20% chance of development.
-
They always forecast an above average hurricane season unless there's an El Nino.
-
They always forecast an above average hurricane season unless there's an El Nino.
In 2010s case, there was an above average season, but no storms really made landfall.. however that isnt always true.. 2009 had a below average season, and it had a La Niņa summer, which did transfer over into an El Niņo winter. :yes:
I also have a post on my new weatherblog about this hurricane season http://zach.dyndns-work.com:53205/weatherblog/?p=6 (http://zach.dyndns-work.com:53205/weatherblog/?p=6)
-
We could be saying hello to Tropical Depression One in the Pacific very, very soon. NHC gives an area of low pressure in the Pacific a 60% of development in the next day or two. Adrian may be coming soon after that.
-
I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems and can make tracking storms confusing. Maybe we can make this thread for the Pacific and the other thread for the Atlantic hurricane season
-
I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems.
Don't worry. Once we actually get some tropical depressions or storms, they will each have their own thread to make it easier to separate. Furthermore, the Eastern Pacific usually doesn't get discussed much, so it wouldn't do well as a topic to itself.
-
I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems.
Don't worry. Once we actually get some tropical depressions or storms, they will each have their own thread to make it easier to separate. Furthermore, the Eastern Pacific usually doesn't get discussed much, so it wouldn't do well as a topic to itself.
ok, I forgot to edit my post before you posted lol but that sounds good
-
40%
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif)
-
There is now a 90% chance of development in the Pacific. Tropical Depression One-E should form tomorrow or Tuesday, at the latest.
From the NHC:
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
I'm pretty sure that low will develop by tomorrow or so. It looks pretty organized.
-
I'm not sure if this is the same system or not, but the 6z GFS shows a weak tropical storm/depression with abundant moisture making landfall around New Orleans on the 20th. It then heads north at the end of the run towards Illinois.
(http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/3410/06zgfs850mbtslpp12348.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/845/06zgfs850mbtslpp12348.png/)
-
When TWC this morning compared both sides of the tropics, the Caribbean disturbance looked healthier than the Pacific disturbance :thinking:
-
As of 8:00 am Pacific time, TD One-E has formed.
-
That tropical wave in the Caribbean missed its window of opportunity and is fizzling out now. Everything else is quiet as expected for early June. Meanwhile, we have our first tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific, so look for Adrian's storm thread to continue discussion on it there.
-
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that the american computer model GFS was showing a tropical disturbance around the latter end of this month and much to my surprise it's still there! It's been off and on from model run to run and unfortunately it seems to be gone on the runs today since the 00z last night :hmm:, but since the idea has been hinted this long I believe it'll be back again. Even better if there's not a tropical storm Arlene out of this, the Southeast will be getting drenched as we shift into a stormier weather pattern meaning some much needed drought relief. I'm hoping we do get something tropical though, it's a much quicker drought relief than scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
-
First Tropical Depression coming soon?
50% chance of development.
Satellite pictures and surface observations suggest that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern bay of campeche is gradually becoming better defined. Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for significant development, these winds are forecast to become more favorable during the next day or so. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly west-northwestward. An Air Force reserve unit Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the area Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the yucatan peninsula and southeastern Mexico tonight. These rains and winds will gradually spread westward into northeastern Mexico during the next day or two.
Source: www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1]https://secure.[url=http://www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1]www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1 (https://secure.[url=http://www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1)[/url]
-
We almost have Tropical Depression #1 - 90% chance of development.
1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
-
We almost have Tropical Depression #1 - 90% chance of development.
You can skip the depression part and head straight to our first storm thread for the Atlantic here:
https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-arlene/ (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-arlene/)
-
Since it's a fish storm, I'm not surprised to not see a thread on it, but it's worth mentioning that Hurricane Dora in the East Pacific has become a real monster of a storm. It started out as a measly Cat 1 hurricane this morning, with winds around 90 mph, but at the latest NHC update, the winds are now at 135 mph, and it has a really well-defined eye. Although it's window of opportunity is closing in, we may see a Category 5 hurricane in the next few days.
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg)
Visible imagery of Hurricane DORA
-
I have an itchy feeling this little critter will be our "D" storm. I guess we shall see, development is expected to be slow the next few days.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
-
Nothing to get excited about, but I've been comparing the pace of last year's storms to this year. Don't jump to conclusions on this, because it may change completely, but we are ahead of the pace of 2010 by about 2 weeks. Here are the exact numbers:
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Hurricane Alex: June 25th - July 2nd
Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 22nd - 24th
Tropical Storm Colin: August 2nd - 8th
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Arlene: June 29th - July 1st: 4 Days Behind 2010
Tropical Storm Bret: July 17th - PRESENT: 5 Days Ahead of 2010
Tropical Storm Cindy: July 20th - PRESENT: 13 Days Ahead of 2010
Again, nothing to make broad conclusions about, but it's worth making a point about it.
-
That invest mentioned above is putting out some interesting model runs...almost all the models are saying this storm will hit Cuba and vicinity before heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The BAMM goes all out and points to a landfall in SW Alabama. Too far out to really rely on one, but looking at this data suggests we may have a landfall with this system.
-
Latest on Dora
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 111.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL AND WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
-
It's just one run, but the 0z NAM computer model shows the current tropical wave w/ 10% of development approaching the GOM as a tropical storm at a pressure of 1003 mb at hr 84. If the run went out any further, I would assume it would take it onshore somewhere on the LA shore.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
(http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/9238/00znam850mbtslpp06084.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/190/00znam850mbtslpp06084.png/)
-
24 Hours ago this tropical wave was on life support, only had a 0% chance of development. Now it's back up to 30%. It's possible we could have a TD or even Don by tomorrow if it continues to organize as well as it has today. It's heading into a very favorable environment and as it stands right now could bring welcome rainfall to Texas by this weekend. :D
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Source: National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
-
I got these from another weather forum.
18z model tracks for Invest 90L
(http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=137401)
Model Projected Storm Strengths
(http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16148-1311713840_thumb.png)
-
8pm Update - Upgraded to 40% Code Orange
-
Tavores, let's keep invests in this thread until it develops into something. I do feel there is a decent chance here for this tropical wave to develop further.
-
Tavores, let's keep invests in this thread until it develops into something. I do feel there is a decent chance here for this tropical wave to develop further.
Understood, I'll remember that next time. ;)
2 AM Update - 70% Chance Of Development CODE RED
According to the NHC, this invest is showing more signs of a LLC (Low Level Circulation)
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
8 AM Update - Upgraded to 80% Chance of Development (TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TODAY)
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
-
does it have a better chance to hit the TX/LA coast? or have the same path as Arlene?
-
does it have a better chance to hit the TX/LA coast? or have the same path as Arlene?
There are still 3 possibilities:
1. Makes landfall in Northern Mexico
2. Makes landfall anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston, TX
3. Makes landfall near the TX/LA border.
Right now, #2 is most likely and hopefully it will pan out that way. Tropical downpours is exactly what the lonestar state needs.
The 12z GFS model is going w/ #3, but it keeps the system poorly organized the entire time.
The 12z NAM model has the system make landfall near Houston,TX
-
The 6z HWRF model peaks the system as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane (989mb) while making landfall in TX
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnesthwrfLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnesthwrfLoop.html)
-
Hopefully this thing makes landfall on Texas, they desperately need some rain after the drought.
-
2PM UPDATE - 100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.
I might be jumping the gun, but I'll go ahead and say we will have TD #4 or Tropical Storm Don by the 5pm advisory.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
-
Something else to monitor... :whistling:
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
Glad you brought that system up: it's been showing some good convection and radar showed some pretty obvious rotation with it...we'll see what NHC says at 2 AM, but I think this little thing could be Emily within a week.
EDIT: It is worth point out that if Emily does form by...let's say Saturday, which my contact and I believe is a reasonable date for it to form into a depression or storm...then we will have had 4 named systems in July - a fairly rare feat - and we will be almost 30 days ahead of the 2010 pace. Tropical Storm Earl last year formed on August 25th.
-
Glad you brought that system up: it's been showing some good convection and radar showed some pretty obvious rotation with it...we'll see what NHC says at 2 AM, but I think this little thing could be Emily within a week.
EDIT: It is worth point out that if Emily does form by...let's say Saturday, which my contact and I believe is a reasonable date for it to form into a depression or storm...then we will have had 4 named systems in July - a fairly rare feat - and we will be almost 30 days ahead of the 2010 pace. Tropical Storm Earl last year formed on August 25th.
We'll also be only 1 storm behind the historic 2005 hurricane season where there was 5 storms in July if this occurs.
EDIT: Now it's up to 30% - CODE ORANGE!
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Also looking at models such as the European, it would suggest that this may be something for the East Coast to watch out for.
-
Invest 91 is definitely one to watch. Look at this intensity model! (132 hours = 5 days, which would be Tuesday).
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201191_model_intensity.gif)
Computer models only have it around Guadeloupe by then, so it will have tons of time to strengthen. We're talking a Category 1 by then!
I'm gonna jump the gun here and predict landfall around Wilmington, NC.
-
Cool, I hope Emily forms! We desperately need the rain ad well, but certainly not the wind damage or storm surges
-
It's still a little to far out, but the models take 91L into the Carribean and curve it towards the East Coast, where it would make a beeline for N Florida/Georgia/Southern South Carolina. We'll have to see if the models see it curving away or if we could have a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast.
Part of my gut tells me this storm could be the modern-day Hugo, for some reason O_O.
-
I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be. :blink:
-
I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be. :blink:
That's why you all see me being a little upset lately in these threads. I wish some people would look at the overall environment and the storm's structure before jumping into some wild conclusions. Many systems never become what you think they will. I'm trying to teach some valuable tips on forecasting here as a lot wish to do it in their futures.
-
Frankly, I think the only time it would even be appropriate to "wish" for an extremely strong tropical cyclone would be if it remained entirely in the middle of the ocean, away from land... but then we'd be getting into debates over whether it should or should not be named. <sigh>
It's a very good point - though. Professionalism requires looking at the data and using one's experience, not giving into desires.
-
That's a good point, and I'm sorta guilty of this bloodlust. :P I will point out, though, that looking at the track and intensity models, my thoughts of intensification and track are not based off of one lone model. The majority of the intensity models do agree in intensification to at least Cat 1 hurricane strength, although the time when it does so is variable, and over half the track models point to a gradual turn to the NW towards the Southeast.
The prediction of location of landfall, I'll admit, is probably nearly impossible to predict at the moment. We'll have to wait and see.
EDIT: Latest model runs agree even more on a track north of Cuba towards the Southeast.
-
I seem to notice some kind of hurricane bloodlust in this forum... predicting that every storm or potential storm will end up becoming much stronger than it actually is/will be. :blink:
It's not being bloodlust if more than one model is showing the possibility of a strong hurricane possibly affecting the east coast.
-
These are analog tracks of hurricanes that have formed or were on the same track as Invest 91L. I noticed Hurricane David from 1979 is on there, that was the last hurricane to strike Savannah,GA.
(http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13231-1311968924_thumb.png)
-
Looking at this a bit further, there's something we all forgot to take into account here: there's a ridge up north that may have an effect on this system as it pushes west. By what I understand...it may force this system to curve away from the United States with no impact...or, if the system continues on a more westerly track than the models suggest, bypass the ridge altogether and continue moving towards the Gulf. We'll see.
Now looking at this, landfall on the United States is now in quite a bit of doubt (in addition to the fact that this thing is still at least a week out from impact). I still agree with the models at the moment, impacting the Caribbean before curving north. Whether it curves north severely or gradually (much like Earl did, which scraped the Outer Banks), is all dependent on that ridge I mentioned.
EDIT: Regarding intensity, other than some moderate wind shear in the storms anticipated path in the next 24 hours, I'm not seeing models detect much shear in the storms path. Ocean temperatures are more than suitable for intensification as well. I'm fairly confident that this system will become at least a hurricane before it impacts any land. How intense it gets, I don't know.
-
This is quite an observation...and you can see it on the Brownsville radar:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM
THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED
MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.
From the forecast discussion of the 4 pm advisory.
-
Not one, but two disturbances to keep us entertained!
Invest 91L - Up to 50%
Another disturbance - Only 0%
1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
The majority of the models are picking up 91L quite well...and the intensity models are in good agreement that this disturbance should achieve winds of 40 mph 24-36 hours from now.
-
Only 0%
Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?
-
Only 0%
Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?
Sorry about that, I didn't think it would be that bright. It says Only 0%.
-
Only 0%
Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?
Sorry about that, I didn't think it would be that bright. It says Only 0%.
Well, you never know until you try. :)
-
Much more organized this morning, I hardly recognize it from last night. We may have our "Emily" before today is over.
70% - HIGH Chance of Development
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
-
i see Emily taking a similar path like Bill or Earl's Track but staying offshore.
Early prediction of Cat 3-4
-
That's generally what the models are saying, especially given the big high pressure in the Atlantic that's going to steer the storm as you indicated.
-
There's still the scenario that the storm could remain a weak or moderate tropical storm which in that case would mean it won't be influenced steering wise by the trough that will settle into the Eastern portion of the US by late next week. It would head westward until it reaches the GOM, where it goes from there is a question mark. I'm hoping for the latter if it will mean Texas getting another chance at rainfall.
-
Now 80% from NHC. Tropical depression possible in the next couple days.
That scenario for a move to the west is still around, but looking at the models again, they are starting to get more and more consistent with the turn to the northwest. They all generally agree on a landfall near the Windward Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic, before heading northwest. There are a few models that suggest a westward movement, so we'll see what happens.
Early prediction of Cat 3-4
I'm not so sure about that, actually...the models take it up to a borderline Cat 2, but then level it off or weaken it a little bit...assuming because of interaction with the Dominican Republic. Again, not sure. It'll be interesting, though...shear is almost non-existent in its path, and ocean temperatures are more than favorable for development of this thing.
-
Even though, as of the most recent report, the tropical wave that could become Emily had a 90% chance of developing into at least a depression, I'm starting to think that we'll have to wait a little longer than expected to see any real development. I just looked at the latest satellite imagery, and the wave has lost a lot of convection over the past couple of hours. We'll have to wait until tomorrow when the Sun comes back to see if this trend reverses itself. Granted, since these expectations are given for two days out, it could still keep its 90% chance, but I think it's lost itself some time tonight.
-
It's likely going through a cycle...it's been doing that quite a few times over the last few days. I don't think you really have anything to worry about...you'll likely see a tropical depression tomorrow sometime, possibly early Monday.
-
If this storm's track holds true we may get some impact from this. :yes:
-
If this storm's track holds true we may get some impact from this. :yes:
Right now, the track is supposed to bring future-Emily just to the east of Florida. Just like Bret, it will be far enough away so that we escape any actual impact, but it will be dragging drier air in around it. Bret came just after I arrived in Florida, and, as a result, we really haven't had all that many of the thunderstorms that are supposed to be typical of Florida in the summer. And, as a result, it has just been muggy as all get out, and the sun is just... brutal!
-
Even though, as of the most recent report, the tropical wave that could become Emily had a 90% chance of developing into at least a depression, I'm starting to think that we'll have to wait a little longer than expected to see any real development. I just looked at the latest satellite imagery, and the wave has lost a lot of convection over the past couple of hours. We'll have to wait until tomorrow when the Sun comes back to see if this trend reverses itself. Granted, since these expectations are given for two days out, it could still keep its 90% chance, but I think it's lost itself some time tonight.
Here's your possible culprit: Wind Shear
It's moderately strong up to 20 kts on the northside and westside. That may be hindering her development. If it heads NW soon it's going to head into even stronger shear to it's north. I don't know how long it will last at that intensity, but it's something worth monitoring because it could change the outcome of what could really happen with this disturbance.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=91L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=91L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0)
-
At least in rainbow you can still see some close convection
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html)
-
Newest update: near 100% chance of development. A tropical depression now looks imminent. One will likely form tomorrow, and watches and warnings will likely be put up immediately following the declaration of a tropical depression.
-
Eventhough it hasn't been highlighted as an invest or as any interest, I suspect this disturbance just coming off of the African coast "could" have the potential to become our "F" storm... :thinking:
-
Past 5 Hours of Invest 91
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/Invest91.gif)
HWRF Model...expected to reach Category 1 by Thursday
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/hrwf.png)
-
My thoughts right now
Red - High Risk/Most Likely to happen
Orange - Medium Risk/ Possible to Happen
Yellow - Low Risk/ Not likely to happen
I should mention, even if it does recurve, I expect there will be higher surf/ rip current risks along the east coast.
-
Sorry, Gulf of Mexico. Although there is still a slim possibility future Emily could slip under this trough and ridge to make it into the region, almost all the models now agree on a turn to the NW, impacting parts of the Windward Islands and Hispaniola.
The East Coast will have to wait and see what happens. It all depends on what the models see once this invest becomes a tropical depression. There's a trough - and a fairly strong one at that - being picked up by models in the mid-week moving off the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a chance that this trough could push the system out to see, with the impacts becoming rip currents and high surf for the East Coast.
-
12z GFS is a recurve, but it's further south and west. It gets pretty darn close to the SE coast before it takes a sharp turn...
Also does anyone know what's with the area to the west of it? It's really blowing up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html)
-
NHC keeping near 100% on this system, and recon is enroute to the system right now to see if it is a tropical depression. That separate batch of storms you're looking at - well, NHC seems to interpret it as 91L as well, which is kinda confusing.
-
That batch of convection west of the Invest looks to be it's own system, but that's just me.
-
By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.
-
Gotta love technical issues...
UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
-
By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.
You're right, both areas are highlighted as one now.
-
Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.
Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.
Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.
-
I expected that there would be a hurricane striking within the first week I moved to Florida. Looks like I was just half a month off. Still, though, a category 1 storm is much better than, say, Charlie, which, even though it made landfall on the west coast of Florida, did quite a lot of severe damage in the Daytona Beach area.
-
Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.
Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.
Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.
Seems like the models that hint at that pull the trough out of the NE before it can pick up "Emily" and quickly curve it out to sea.
Definitely a shift west on the 0z model spreads, there's even one that keeps it going west through the Caribbean.
-
6z GFS - Wow, I don't buy it, but wow. Direct bullseye for FL heading north to GA/FL border before being swept out to sea by an incoming trough. It also really ramps up in intensity once it's out out sea again.
Around hour 132 is when it makes landfall in South Florida.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html)
As a sidenote, this disturbance is mentioned in the forecast discussion from the Peachtree City NWS office that serves Atlanta
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOWS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THAT COULD DEPEND ON INDIRECT TROPICAL
INFLUENCES IN THE EXTENDED.
-
My Morning forecast outlook.
[TFDATD]
USA Weather - Tropical Forecast Division
Atlantic Tropical Discussion **Update**
9:03 AM EDT Monday, August 1, 2011
Tropical Depression 91L
Located: 14.1 N 53.6 W
Winds: 25 kts | 30 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb | 29.71 inches
...TD 91L EXPERECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS NOTED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO A LIGHT SHEAR ZONE, WHERE IT WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED THAT OUT TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SOME MARGINALLY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO TRACK WEST THROUGHT THE DAY TODAY, THEN SHIFT NORTH WEST TUESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF US IMPACTS MID/LATE WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ELSE WHERE, TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC WEST OF AFRICA. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE OF. MORE DETAILS WILL BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT UPDATE AT 11AM ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L.
GATLIN
-
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
-
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. :fire:
-
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. :fire:
But that's just wrong. A tropical depression requires certain accepted conditions, and this tropical wave doesn't yet meet all of these conditions. If it did, then it would have been designated as a depression by the National Hurricane Center.
Who is the person giving the orders, and what kind of qualifications does he have?!
-
GFS
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA (http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA)
-
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. :fire:
But that's just wrong. A tropical depression requires certain accepted conditions, and this tropical wave doesn't yet meet all of these conditions. If it did, then it would have been designated as a depression by the National Hurricane Center.
Who is the person giving the orders, and what kind of qualifications does he have?!
I agree with you completely. Recon did not find a closed circulation at the surface this AM... But, still he begs to differ. GO figure. Qualifications? Eh, No idea. :chair:
-
I originally had my target point for landfall as Wilmington, NC; but I have widened it to include Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico.
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. :fire:
If he has no qualifications, then he is technically providing false information. I would not listen to him...:no:
-
I originally had my target point for landfall as Wilmington, NC; but I have widened it to include Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico.
Tropical Depression 91L
But it's not yet a tropical depression. It's a tropical wave.
Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. :fire:
If he has no qualifications, then he is technically providing false information. I would not listen to him...:no:
I agree. This isn't exactly something I wanted to talk about here, but I guess oops? I'm taking this up with he/she later... I don't approve of undermining the authority of NHC/NWS
-
GFS
[url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url] ([url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url])
Wow... looks like it's gonna miss the US. **fingers crossed**
-
GFS
[url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url] ([url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url])
Wow... looks like it's gonna miss the US. **fingers crossed**
That is - by far - the most easterly track I've seen predicted for this system.
-
It looks like it. We can hope, of course, but you've gotta factor in the other models and what they say. I still say the U.S. isn't completely clear from this.
-
GFS
[url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url] ([url]http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA[/url])
Hmm, if that's the 0z GFS from last night, it's different from the same run on this site. It's much further west closer to the FL coast... :huh:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html)
12z GFS still says South Florida landfall, traveling north through the Sunshine state before a trough pushes it out to sea on the GA/SC coast similar to the 6z run this morning.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html (http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html)
12z Canadian is going with a Gulf Of Mexico solution again, the pressure is down to 999mb making landfall on the FL panhandle. These scenarios are interesting, but it's still too early to buy into this. One thing is for certain, the longer it takes for this thing to develop a low level circulation so it can become a depression and tropical storm, the greater the chances these solutions could be plausible.
-
NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml)
From: http://spaghettimodels.com/ (http://spaghettimodels.com/)
-
I hope you guys realize that the models don't do a good job with features that aren't even classified as tropical depressions or storms yet. I wait until it's actually something to allow time for ship reports and recon flights to put data into the models so that they have a far better handle on it. Tracking a tropical wave with little data is dangerous.
Donovan, I don't understand why you're making that depression statement when it's completely false. There is no closed surface circulation, so it's not a tropical cyclone, period. You can't even call a tropical depression by its invest number anyway, which is what I see on the headline of your statement. There's even a slim chance that this wave may never develop into anything! Whoever you're working for needs to learn about real Meteorology.
-
I hope you guys realize that the models don't do a good job with features that aren't even classified as tropical depressions or storms yet. I wait until it's actually something to allow time for ship reports and recon flights to put data into the models so that they have a far better handle on it. Tracking a tropical wave with little data is dangerous.
Donovan, I don't understand why you're making that depression statement when it's completely false. There is no closed surface circulation, so it's not a tropical cyclone, period. You can't even call a tropical depression by its invest number anyway, which is what I see on the headline of your statement. There's even a slim chance that this wave may never develop into anything! Whoever you're working for needs to learn about real Meteorology.
Very true, that's why I'm not buying into the models showing a Florida hit or GOM hit yet. They may be misplacing where the LLC is giving off false tracks and intensities. It's almost the same during the winter where some models don't grasp onto the right solution for a winter storm until it's taking shape in the lower 48's.
-
Again, my fault for jumping to conclusions on the models. I won't make judgments on landfall, track, and intensity this early. My bad.
I do want to clear something up that is starting to mildly annoy me slightly, and that is the criticism Donovan has been getting for his forecast. Since I work in the same division as him, I'll go ahead and explain this entire thing to you guys now:
Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.
I agree with you all that one should wait on these declarations until the NHC says something. But people, I'm wondering how much clearer Donovan has to make it: this was not my call, nor was it Donovan's. It was the directors. Now, I'm going to ask that if you have ANY criticism towards that forecast, that you steer it away from Donovan. It wasn't his personal call. He knows it's not a tropical depression.
NHC downgraded this invest to 80%.
-
Well.... I'm just gonna act like I didn't read all of that and forget it. Just know, I'm no fool, I know my weather basics... Now I forgive those who can't or didn't read those posts. :rofl2:
-
I think we should just move on here. I apologize if my post was a little harsh towards you, Donovan. As you can tell, it always pinches a nerve when individuals or companies try to go on their own and declare things that aren't true according to official sources.
Anyway, another recon flight is in progress, so we'll see if anything comes up this evening on this wave.
-
Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.
At the risk of insulting your employer, I am going to say that this is just plain stupid. The NHC alone has the duty and the authority to declare a system tropical.
Does this director really believe that people are going to listen to USA Weather over the National Hurricane Center regarding a tropical system? Does this director feel that, for the purposes of "beating" the NHC at declaring a system tropical, it is worthwhile to just disregard the established guidelines of what makes a system tropical in the first place?!
Stupid. :club:
-
Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.
At the risk of insulting your employer, I am going to say that this is just plain stupid. The NHC alone has the duty and the authority to declare a system tropical.
Does this director really believe that people are going to listen to USA Weather over the National Hurricane Center regarding a tropical system? Does this director feel that, for the purposes of "beating" the NHC at declaring a system tropical, it is worthwhile to just disregard the established guidelines of what makes a system tropical in the first place?!
Stupid. :club:
Okay.... Well i'll set it straight.
-
In other news.... It looks like some dry air and some shear has resulted in the wave being downgraded to 80%... Looking at models this morning I knew deep down that something was going to hinder the development today. Also, someone told me recon has found the pressure dropping and they haven't arrived at the wave yet.
-
I agree whole-heartedly with your statement. We are trying to make a compromise with him so we do not have this issue again.
-
Tropical Weather Summaries for the month of July:
Atlantic:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THREE NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY. THIS WAS WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2010) AVERAGE OF
ONE.
Pacific:
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN DURING JULY WAS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THREE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...AND TWO
BECAME HURRICANES...WITH DORA REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON
AVERAGE THREE TO FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN DURING JULY
...WITH TWO REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY AND ONE BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
-
Hopefully this thing makes landfall on Texas, they desperately need some rain after the drought.
You mean they desperately need rain since they are in such a bad drought. "After" would mean that the drought there is over and it's nowhere near over. I hope they get much-needed rain, too.
-
NOAA released their revised prediction for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season today. Here are the new numbers, compared to the older season. Allow me to remind you how the 2010 season went:
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Named Storms: 19
Hurricanes: 12
Major Hurricanes: 5
NOAA's First Forecast - May 19th, 2011
Named Storms: 12-18
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
NOAA's Revised Forecast - August 4th, 2011
Named Storms: 14-19
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-5
This implies to me, at least, that if NOAA is right, we may be facing a season just as active as last year.
-
Long range models such as the GFS and EURO are showing mid-late August turning active and possibly ugly within the next week.
0z GFS decides it wants to scare the crap out of NYC and Boston by giving them a close call w/ a hurricane, but alas an incoming trough comes to save the day and brush it out to sea.
This will most likely be "Gert" as the current Invest 92L has already stayed out to sea as a fish storm prior to this storm.
(http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/2049/00zgfs500mbhghtpmsltrop.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/849/00zgfs500mbhghtpmsltrop.png/)
If you thought the GFS was scary, wait until you see the EURO. It appears to be going for a double whammy. Having both Invest 92L ("Franklin") and possible future "Gert" hot on it's heels heading towards the NE region.
As always these scenarios are never set in stone will change a million times, but I would stay vigilant if you live on the Eastern Seaboard the next couple of weeks because I do believe things will get ugly quickly. I'm more concerned about the system behind Invest 92L right now which may become "Gert" and a serious threat to the US.
I don't know a whole lot about teleconnections, but from my understanding at another weather forum, The -NAO is expected to go positive in a few days which will probably allow for more of an east coast threat in late August. Not to alarm anyone, but please if you live on the coastal areas of FL to MA start preparing now while you still can. Don't wait until the last minute to come up with a hurricane evacuation plan or supplies to have once it's here. Eventhough it's very long range, the threat could very well be real in the short range.
Here's the 0z EURO
(http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/3830/00zeurotropical850mbvor.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/00zeurotropical850mbvor.png/)
-
What about Franklin? :P
-
Oh lordy, lordy! 4 count em' 4 areas of interest! :wow: (Well, we can ignore #3, it's just that pesky Emily)
-
18z GFS Today Hr. 372 (Fantasyland for the GFS right now) - WOW. :blink: :blink: :blink:
August 26, 2011 - What's more eerie is this is very close to the 6th anniversary of Katrina.
-
Best not to look that long out but interesting nevertheless. 92L and 93L need to be watched
(http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/3931/trackearly2.png)
(http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/5985/trackearly1.png)
-
Best not to look that long out but interesting nevertheless. 92L and 93L need to be watched
I know it's just eye candy, scary eye candy, but the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range like this. The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity, it also doesn't hurt that it has the Euro on it's side in all of this in the long range. Looks like the GFS isn't so quick to develop Invest 92L on the 18z run unlike the 0z run last night, more in line with the Euro in being slower.
-
The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity.
I don't mean to come off mean, but you say this like it's no big deal. Possible changes in the track and intensity are the main reason to not put a lot of trust in a model this far out, not to mention the NHC day 5 path as mentioned by Patrick many times and proven by Emily. But I do agree it is something interesting to look at, but as a meteorology teacher of mine who worked at the NWS said in class once, "One thing we know for sure, this will not happen
exactly how it's forecast" (referring to a model chart several days out).
-
The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity.
I don't mean to come off mean, but you say this like it's no big deal. Possible changes in the track and intensity are the main reason to not put a lot of trust in a model this far out, not to mention the NHC day 5 path as mentioned by Patrick many times and proven by Emily. But I do agree it is something interesting to look at, but as a meteorology teacher of mine who worked at the NWS said in class once, "One thing we know for sure, this will not happen
exactly how it's forecast" (referring to a model chart several days out).
No, that's not how I was trying to come off as saying it. What I mean is those two things are reasons it is what it is in the long range eye candy because it will change several times until we get to the short range. That was the first thing I learned about computer models is that anything after 3 days is basically a grain of salt and in the case of Emily this year, anything beyond 3 hours is a grain of salt. :P
Invest 92L 12z model tracks/wind forecast
(http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/1843/12zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/30/12zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif/)
(http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/9176/12zearly2.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/12zearly2.gif/)
Invest 93L
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4514/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif/)
(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/4492/12zearly.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/220/12zearly.gif/)
-
Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.
-
Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.
That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.
The first one is 92L, with speech bubble pointing at it, and the second one is 93L, also with a speech bubble pointing at it.
Also, the low up at the top that has no speech bubble in either images is Emily's remnants. :P
-
Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)
-
92L will probably be a fish. 93L is a little more interesting
Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.
Correct. There is an error with the source they are using
That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.
No the images posted earlier despite labeled as 92 and 93L were exactly the same. An error
Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)
18z and 300+hr :sick:
-
Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)
18z and 300+hr :sick:
[/quote]
It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.
-
That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.
No the images posted earlier despite labeled as 92 and 93L were exactly the same. An error
Yeah, I can see that now with these new runnings :blushing:
-
It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.
Is it being consistent? At 0Z I saw the 300+ storm hitting Bermuda, 06z lost it, 12z was a gulf runner. Unless I am missing something it doesn't seem consistent at all
-
It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.
Is it being consistent? At 0Z I saw the 300+ storm hitting Bermuda, 06z lost it, 12z was a gulf runner. Unless I am missing something it doesn't seem consistent at all
Ok, about 80% consistent :P, but it's natural for the GFS to lose a storm or in this case send it out to sea and then reverse back to what it was showing before on future runs.
Anyway, we'll probably have "Gert" soon...
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
-
LONG RANGE (10 DAYS OUT)
GFS, EURO, AND CMC in agreement of an East Coast Threat for Late August. (0z Runs) CMC is the fastest with the disturbance.
As a bonus....
Farmer's Almanac Forecast for Southeast US.
August 2011
16th-19th. Scattered thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Pleasant, turning unsettled.
24th-27th. Hazy and humid, with scattered thunderstorms.
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.
It'll be interesting to see if the FA is accurate on their long range forecast. :thinking: Because it's long range, there's still plenty of questions than answers on what will happen, but after reading that forecast on FA, I thought I post this since the dates are aligned with eachother.
-
For about the 9th straight run in a row the GFS still shows a US threat for the timeframe mentioned in my above post and the past 4 runs today alone continue to show the Gulf Coast under the bullet. It's long range, but that's pretty remarkable. I wonder how long this streak will keep going on the GFS The track hasn't changed drastically either as would be expected in this range. :o I might even get hurricane force winds out of this run. :lol: The only thing worse than not knowing what will happen is having to wait til short term to see if it happens.
-
As of this morning, both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic seasons have seven named storms. However, the Eastern Pacific has five hurricanes and three major hurricanes, while the Atlantic is still stuck at zero. I suspect that the transition from La Niņa to neutral has hurt the Atlantic a little. The wind shear, overall upper air pattern with a lot of troughs off the East Coast, and pockets of dry air in places are limiting the potential available for intensification.
Here's a factoid that I discovered for you all: The latest that any Atlantic season got its first hurricane in the modern era of naming storms is on September 11, 2002 with Hurricane Gustav. You have to go back to 1941 to find a season when the first hurricane formed later that than date.
-
12z GFS run still shows a pretty robust tropical system impacting the SE/mid-Atlantic.
This is 228 hours out, and the GFS tends to overplay systems at times, but this will definitely need to be closely monitored.
-
i will laugh when all that convection hits the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, especially with the drought starting in parts of the area
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/northeast_dm.png)
-
We might have TD8 soon, 93L up to 60% of development. There's definitely a circulation showing up nicely, but the convection has been spotty at best right now. It blossomed up this afternoon before waning down some.
1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
Visib. Satellite of 93L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html)
-
Also a sidenote: The 0z GFS continues the US landfall streak making this the 12th run in a row to show a solution of a US landfall! :o Either the GFS is incredibly genius or incredibly wrong at this point. Very fascinating to see nonetheless because the tracks haven't been erratic like say a GOM landfall one run then NYC the next, it's consistent in a GOM/SE coast landfall. The track takes it over the FL keys, north into West/Central FL (Around Tampa) It continues northbound until around South/Central Georgia before making a turn NE into the Carolinas,
EURO decided to leave the GFS out in the cold, saying it's being foolish and insane with it's solutions, but the CMC and UKMET (albeit not as aggressive) have the GFS's back.
A picture of our critter of interest and the 0z GFS is attached below. (PROCEED AND HEED THEM WITH CAUTION)
-
The consistency of the GFS is rather interesting.
-
I'm feeling more confident that this threat may indeed happen. The 0z EURO decided, "Hey, you know what? Maybe the GFS is on to something, I got your back again man. In fact let me scare Savannah, GA with a major hurricane." The EURO is also the most agressive showing a pressure in the 950's! Wow, if that happens Savannah is gonna get raked. :(
The following below are other models and their solutions.
06z GFS - Makes it run #13, track similar to 0z run. (only a smudge west)
0z UKMET - Shows the storm, but weaker than GFS/Euro and further south missing Hispanola to track into the GOM.
0z Canadian - Grazes East Coast of FL, hints at NC hit with a pressure of 970mb.
If this disturbance does develop as modeled, don't expect much until around Sunday/Monday when it's near the Leeward Islands, once it's beyond that point it has a chance to really blossom.
Invest 93L - Expect this to be "Harvey" within the next 12-24 hours. NHC upgraded to 80% chance of development.
-
UPDATE
Run #14! GFS not giving up on US landfall, but the strength it's forecasting after going over Hispanola/Cuba are in question, but not enough of a concern to worry about this far out. The track once again as it makes landfall near Tampa heading NNE and then rides up I-95 into the Northeast region. Pictures posted below.
-
lol GFS is strengthening over mountains :P
-
I've been pretty preoccupied with Invest 97L, I didn't pay the critter behind it any attention. It looks very healthy right now, but I bet it'll be the same song and dance where it'll suffer a bad case of bronchitis from that Saharan Dry Air weakening it before it gets it's act together.
-
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/circu.gif)
-
18z GFS took a serious turn west...into Texas? lol :blink: :P
-
Russian Roulette in the Atlantic, Who's gonna be Harvey, Who's Gonna Be Irene, and Who's Gonna Be Jose? :thinking: :dunno:
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/5535/1313710752.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/1313710752.gif/)
-
Russian Roulette in the Atlantic, Who's gonna be Harvey, Who's Gonna Be Irene, and Who's Gonna Be Jose? :thinking: :dunno:
It looks like T.D. Eight will become Harvey. #3 might have a shot at Irene, though it's obviously much too early to tell. #2 doesn't seem too promising for any real development... at least not yet.
-
0z GFS - It shifted east as I suspected would happen, but it's in an area that would be putting salt on open wounds especially since it coincides with the 6th anniversary of the notorious Katrina which affected the same area. I'm really curious to see how the GFS and the other models behave once it's a TD. To me, it doesn't seem to be a question of will it happen, but where? I'm starting to feel like a little kid again waiting for Christmas to arrive just wondering what were gonna get once it's here.
Also, anyone know a website where you can find analogs of past hurricanes? I've heard everything from Hurricane Georges '98, to Hurricane Hugo '89 to Hurricane Donna '60 on other forums.
-
If by analogs you mean tracks, Wikipedia is the site to go to. They have track maps for every recorded tropical system from the 1851 hurricane season onward. I use it a lot to compare tracks.
Looking at the latest NHC analysis, #3 looks to be Irence and #2 looks to turn into Jose. Assuming Jose forms in the next couple days (which is a bit aggressive), it is worth noting that the "J" storm from last year formed on September 12th.
-
If by analogs you mean tracks, Wikipedia is the site to go to. They have track maps for every recorded tropical system from the 1851 hurricane season onward. I use it a lot to compare tracks.
Looking at the latest NHC analysis, #3 looks to be Irence and #2 looks to turn into Jose. Assuming Jose forms in the next couple days (which is a bit aggressive), it is worth noting that the "J" storm from last year formed on September 12th.
Yeah, that's what I meant, I'll check there and see then. 6z GFS shifted east also just about where it was on the runs before the 18z run making landfall in the E. GOM in the eastern FL panhandle, moving north through GA then NE. It's also been shifting south of Hispanola avoid a direct hit, but a hit nonetheless so it would still be terrible either way because they'll be in the right front quadrant of the storm. The EURO and Canadian shifted much further east focusing on a SE threat. (EURO ensembles still suggest GOM threat, so were not done with more flip flopping yet... :P)
I agree with you about who becomes "Irene" and "Jose". Invest 98L looks to be a fish storm and Invest 97L looks like it's developing convection on the northside, but not around the center yet obviously.
Also has anyone ever heard of the GFS model having a history of underdoing pressures on hurricanes? I've heard that on other forums. One member in particular said that when Katrina was still an invest, the GFS only modeled it to drop into the 960's, even all the way up into short range when it was rapidly strengthening in the GOM. He also said it did the same with Rita that year. If that ends up being the case with this were gonna be in serious trouble if it makes landfall in the US (a recurve out to sea is still a small possbility btw)
EDIT: Tracks similar to Hurricane David and Frederic (1979) seems plausible right now. I should also mention I only looked at storms that originated from the Cape Verdes and these two seem to be the only ones close to what the models are showing at the moment.
-
12z Euro shifted west again agreeing again w/ 12z GFS on Eastern FL/GOM landfall.
EDIT: Throwing in the NOGAPS model for fun. :P It's joining the party also it appears.
-
New NAM Model Run is rather interesting... :thinking:
(http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/invest97.gif)
-
New NAM Model Run is rather interesting... :thinking:
([url]http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af19/TWCFreak/invest97.gif[/url])
DR/Haiti and PR looks to be the challenge right now, it'll be interesting to see how it behaves once it gets there. Will it miss to the north or south? or will it cut right through and what will be left of it once that happens? Most models seem to favor rapid intensification once it reaches the GOM. Seas surface temps certainly won't be a problem, they haven't been touched all summer and some isolated areas are sizzling above 90.
18z GFS gives Florida/Georgia another good hard thumpin'. 3rd run in a row to show this today.
NWS here very briefly mentions Invest 97L
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY...THEN MEANDERING SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
INTO MIDWEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY IN OUR FUTURE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)
18z DGEX
(http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/6559/18zdgex850mbtslpp06192.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/831/18zdgex850mbtslpp06192.gif/)
-
This is kinda offtopic, but is the local news in anyone's area that could possibly be affected by Invest 97L hyping this thing up already? Our ABC affiliate sure is.
-
I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.
Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.
Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O
-
This is kinda offtopic, but is the local news in anyone's area that could possibly be affected by Invest 97L hyping this thing up already? Our ABC affiliate sure is.
Yes. The Orlando/Daytona Beach TV stations are all keeping a close watch on it, and the new text box on the extended forecast on TWC's local forecasts have Thursday highlighted in red saying that the tropics are being watched.
-
I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.
Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.
Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O
I don't think it's going to happen, and not by a long shot. Conditions in 2005 were different than they are now, and the development of systems was nothing short of phenomenal, especially after the season ended. After all, it's apparently only once in half a century when a storm carries over into the next calendar year.
-
Yeah, you've got a point, and I should have kept that in mind. But still, the fact that we're this far into the name list this early in the season (early being used loosely) is worth noting.
-
Yeah, you've got a point, and I should have kept that in mind. But still, the fact that we're this far into the name list this early in the season (early being used loosely) is worth noting.
Yes, you're absolutely right. It is rather interesting to note that, in terms of the number of named storms, this year is pretty much performing the same as the remarkable year of 2005.
-
I've been looking at the 2005 hurricane records. Although things looked pretty pathetic compared to that infamous season a few weeks ago, we are now uncomfortably close to the pace of the 2005 season. It all relies on little Jose, who looks like it may have some development trouble as it encounters some dry air in its path.
Jose, in 2005, formed on August 22nd. That's four days away. Although chances are slim in my opinion, if that occurs, we will have officially tied the 2005 pace for at least one day. Our K storm will have to have formed the next day to match Katrina's formation on the 23rd.
Nothing to get excited about, as a lot can change pattern wise, but it is worth noting. Who knows? We may jump into the Greek Alphabet again this year. O_O
There's an Invest 99L which could be Katia if 98L becomes Jose and Irene 97L. I wish they could have came up with a better replacement for Katrina, it's too close to being the same name as that, the same for Rita whose replacement is "Rina".
Were also one name ahead of the Eastern Pacific currently.
-
There's an Invest 99L which could be Katia if 98L becomes Jose and Irene 97L. I wish they could have came up with a better replacement for Katrina, it's too close to being the same name as that, the same for Rita whose replacement is "Rina".
Were also one name ahead of the Eastern Pacific currently.
My thoughts exactly... :whistling2:
Note that Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney are all new names for this season as replacements for the hurricanes of the devastating 2005 hurricane season.
OK wow, a couple of these names are way too similar to the devastating storm names they are replacing. :blink:
Katia / Katrina
Rina / Rita
-
Hmm, Invest 97L is getting it's act together quickly despite dry air still being to it's north and west in addition to some moderate shear to the north of it making it clear already this will be a force to be reckoned with. I'm a little skeptical on whether a track over Hispaniola will disrupt it completely. We might manage to get TD 9 today rather than tomorrow or Monday like I was thinking. RECON hurricane hunters will be investigating today at 2pm, hopefully if they find a decent LLC maybe we'll start to get more reliable data in the computer models on a track.
Currently Invest 97L is at 80% chance of development.
-
TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm. :thinking:
-
Here's what the Water Temps look like for Invest 97L
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl_tmap.html (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl_tmap.html)
Scroll to the SE to see the other Florida/Georgia and GOM water temps
-
TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm. :thinking:
Well technically it isn't a typical projected path, it's just highlighting areas of concern going by the dynamical models of where Invest 97L could go. Once we get a Tropical Depression and can more accurately locate a low level center of circulation, the models will start honing in better on an area that's most likely to be hit. Right now they're still jumping all over the place going past Haiti/DR. We got anything from a New Orleans hit to a Carolinas hit.
Also I wouldn't be so quick to discount this even if it does go over Haiti/DR/Cuba, Hurricanes/Tropical Cyclones have surmounted those obstacles before, Hurricane Gustav from 2008 is a good example. In addition to this, it's still possible it will miss those islands all together or barely scrape them to the south which I don't have to remind anyone that it would be much worse having the advantage to strengthen and become very powerful. It kinda bothers me that people assume it's a goner if it went over those islands, not every tropical cyclone is affected the same, some suffer worse than others and some might suffer very little disruption of the circulation.
-
TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm. :thinking:
They're not the only ones. Central Florida TV is doing the same thing. And it's not the first tropical wave they've done that for this year.
-
As far as the hyping, I'm not surprised, that's why I asked about that last night. I can understand the reason why, it's the first legit threat to the US this Hurricane Season and possibly the first hurricane threat we've had since Ike in 2008.
Speaking of Invest 97L, it's been updated to 90% chance of development, TD 9 is possible at any moment within the next 48 hours.
12z EURO wastes no time rapidly intensifying this storm and bombs it down to a pressure in the 960's as it hits FL dead on moving north, that's when the fun begins for me to go through the eye, I'm gonna get whacked! :lol:
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.
-
8pm advisory is going to be interesting, we might skip TD 9 and go straight into Tropical Storm Irene w/ Invest 97L.
-
Even though the NHC hasn't put it out yet but we have Irene....
Irene is currently at 50mph....
-
I wasn't a member of this forum during the last landfalling U.S. hurricane, so I have a question...
Is it expected (or requested, or just asked for) that those in the path of a hurricane or other tropical system post reports about what's going on? I think it would make for some interesting reading. I'm not working Thursday, Friday, and the first half of Saturday, so I'll be able to write about the storm so long as the power holds out.
Who else is in the expected path of the storm? Where are you? I'm in Daytona Beach, Florida, and tropical storm conditions are expected here from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Right now, they're predicting we'll probably escape most hurricane-force winds, since the track keeps shifting to the east.
-
Eric, we have no rule on hurricane reports, so it's completely voluntary. You're welcome to make brief posts if you have the time and can do so safely. I would advise for reports to be posted within the storm thread itself.
-
I wasn't a member of this forum during the last landfalling U.S. hurricane, so I have a question...
Is it expected (or requested, or just asked for) that those in the path of a hurricane or other tropical system post reports about what's going on? I think it would make for some interesting reading. I'm not working Thursday, Friday, and the first half of Saturday, so I'll be able to write about the storm so long as the power holds out.
Who else is in the expected path of the storm? Where are you? I'm in Daytona Beach, Florida, and tropical storm conditions are expected here from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Right now, they're predicting we'll probably escape most hurricane-force winds, since the track keeps shifting to the east.
Please post reports, if you can Eric. :) It's always very interesting to hear accounts from members who are experiencing the storm first-hand.
But as Patrick said, you are not required to do this. It's not like you're going to be permanently banned or anything if we realize you are in the path of the storm but don't post anything. Just remember, safety is your #1 priority. It probably isn't a good idea to be on the computer and write about a hurricane if you are somehow caught in the middle of one. ;)
BTW, are you going to have to evacuate?
-
So that contract I signed in blood wasn't for THIS forum? Well... good to know, anyway. :)
No, I very seriously doubt I'll have to evacuate. I'm actually quite a distance from the coast, so I certainly hope flooding isn't going to be an issue. How long the electricity will stay on - that's a question. But I already have plenty of batteries, flashlights, radios, tinned food, and so on, so I'll be fine.
-
So that contract I signed in blood wasn't for THIS forum? Well... good to know, anyway. :)
No, I very seriously doubt I'll have to evacuate. I'm actually quite a distance from the coast, so I certainly hope flooding isn't going to be an issue. How long the electricity will stay on - that's a question. But I already have plenty of batteries, flashlights, radios, tinned food, and so on, so I'll be fine.
It's best to be prepared for a hurricane like this juuuuust in case. Glad to see that you're ready for the storm :) I hope it doesn't affect your area too much.
-
I already have experience from Massachusetts (yes!) in living through minor hurricanes, and Irene's forecast seems to indicate that we'll experience some moderate tropical storm conditions late this week.
-
I know were all preoccupied with Irene, but there is another invest out in the East Atlantic that could be making a run towards becoming Jose. It looks to be a fish right now if it does develop.
Invest 90L
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
-
New large wave just moved off of Africa. Looks like it has a decent chance of development over the next several days.
-
New large wave just moved off of Africa. Looks like it has a decent chance of development over the next several days.
I don't know about wind shear, but dry air doesn't look to be an issue. Very little of it now than it has been this summer, so if shear is light I don't see anything getting in it's way. It looks healthy already.
-
Fast Bloomer...very little wind shear to tear it apart and no dry Saharan air in it's way. Not necessarily a bad thing, it might mean a fish if it develops too quickly. We'll see...if it develops maturely, it'll receive the "K" name "Katia".
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
That invest just shot up to near 100% chance of development. Katia should be here by tomorrow.
-
Katia? Katrina much? :blink:
-
Rita has become Rina
Wilma has become Whitney
-
now that the probability just shot up to about 100% i wonder what the track would look like.
-
As far as the names go, this hurricane season is pretty much caught up with the 2005 season. The sixth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall (in Louisiana) is tomorrow, and we may have our "K" storm forming very soon.
Greek alphabet again, anyone? :P
-
now that the probability just shot up to about 100% i wonder what the track would look like.
FISH, but always subject to change. if we end up with a set up like we had w/ Irene, it's gonna be a double whammy for the east coast.
(http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201192_model.gif)
12z/18z GFS - Out to Sea (Atlantic High is very weak, curve north/NNE)
(http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110828/18/gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif)
12z European - Out To Sea (Hits Bermuda hard though)
(http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNA240.gif)
Just a reminder: Both models showed Irene hitting somewhere in the GOM around this time range...
-
"Lee" or "Maria" should be here by the weekend from the way it appears to be now.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
-
No one is allowed to post about a new storm topic until it has been officially declared by NHC through a public advisory. It creates mass confusion and sets up for some legal issues if anyone tries to beat the only official source for tropical cyclones. I am putting this suggestion into effect immediately.
-
Wow, from what the current paths show, it looks like Lee and Katia are going to run into each other towards the end of the week! :blink: I guess Lee will be post-tropical and will be "overthrown" by Katia if she does hit land, but areas such as NC and VA may want to watch out for two possible storms.
EDIT: Scratch that idea. From the models that Alex posted in the other thread, it looks like I'm completely wrong. :P Most models have Katia turning far north before it even comes to the U.S.
-
Were not done yet folks! Maria may be coming soon.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
-
Early Models for Soon-To-Be Maria
-
September is picking up where August left off. If we manage to get to the "O" name this month we'll be a month ahead of 2005 when in October that year "Ophelia" formed and hit NC. Also I believe we'll have TD 14 by the 5pm update.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/refresh/two_atl+gif/1315331098.gif)
-
Invest 96L will probably be "Nate" by the 5pm advisory.
-
I think we may have a good shot at making it all the way to the "W" storm this year which would be Whitney (Wilma's replacement). September looks to be active near the latter part of the month and I wouldn't be surprised if October is active also.
-
Given that NOAA sees increasing signs of a returning La Nina, I wouldn't be surprised if we at least make it to "T" this year. Whether we go Greek this year...well, we'll just have to wait and see.
-
Looks like our "N" storm may be in the works. 60% chance of development in the far Eastern Atlantic.
-
Looks like our "N" storm may be in the works. 60% chance of development in the far Eastern Atlantic.
Here was already an N storm. :P I think you mean O.
-
Something I find ironic, some of the moisture associated with the rainfall over TX/OK this past weekend was from TS Nate. So in a way, TX didn't get screwed over by Nate.
-
Looks like our "N" storm may be in the works. 60% chance of development in the far Eastern Atlantic.
Here was already an N storm. :P I think you mean O.
How could you forget about TS Nate? :club:
Lol :P. Well anyway, it certainly wasn't much. However, as Tavores said, I didn't realize some of the moisture we got here this past week was partially due to that TS. I remember some of the models tracking it NE again once it crossed over MX...maybe that's what happened.
-
Chances of that invest developing into something are up to 70% this morning, and Ophelia is the next name in line here.
-
:blink: Wow, talk about a terrible memory. Thanks for catching that.
-
Philippe Perhaps?... :thinking: :dunno: We'll see...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
-
I think our last storm will develop in mid to late October seeing how the water temps still warm
-
Just like those blizzards, the rain just keeps coming, coming, coming for the NE....
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201191_model.gif)
-
Another follow-up analysis from NHC shows a brief tropical system between August 31st and September 3rd existed between Nova Scotia and Bermuda, and that the system obtained enough tropical characteristics to become a tropical storm. This brings our named storm total to 19. If all storms had been named this year, we would have gotten to "Tammy."
-
Well, this year's hurricane season was another "Gentle Giant" season as the NWS called last year's season (with the exception of Irene and Lee's remnant low).
-
The 2011 hurricane season officially came to a close yesterday for both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic basins as Mike indicated above. Here's my final tropical summary with some help from NHC and Wikipedia:
The Atlantic basin finished with a total of 20 tropical depressions, 19 tropical storms (one was unnamed as NHC discovered it after the fact upon further analysis), 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Irene, Katia, and Ophelia). This season tied the third highest number of tropical storms in recorded history dating back to 1851. The 1887, 1995, and 2010 seasons also had 19 storms. Only the 1933 season (21 storms) and the infamous 2005 season (28 storms) had more. The first eight storms never reached hurricane strength, which is a new record for the most number of consecutive tropical storms to start a season. Irene ended that streak, and it was the deadliest (at least 55 confirmed as of today) and the costliest storm (over $10 billion in damage) out of the entire season. Once again, the United States was really fortunate as only two tropical storms (Don and Lee) and one hurricane (Irene) made landfall. It could have been much worse, especially since Irene weakened from Category 3 to Category 1 before paralleling the East Coast.
The Eastern Pacific basin finished with a total of 13 tropical depressions, 11 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes (Adrian, Dora, Eugene, Hilary, Jova, and Kenneth). While the Atlantic couldn't generate a single hurricane at first, the Eastern Pacific couldn't stop producing them as the first five storms all became hurricanes. Three of those five hurricanes reached Category 4 intensity, which included Dora (strongest hurricane out of both basins with winds of 155 mph). Interestingly, this active streak stopped one week before Irene formed in the Atlantic on August 20, which possibly hints the moment when the current La Niņa period ensued. From that point forward to October 5, just one named storm developed in the Eastern Pacific, while 10 named storms formed in the Atlantic. The Eastern Pacific finished with one last push as Hurricane Kenneth, the last storm of the season, became the strongest late-season storm to ever form in this basin with winds of 145 mph. Mexico suffered a few glancing blows and three landfalls from Tropical Depression 8-E, Hurricane Jova (costliest storm with over $200 million in damage), and Tropical Depression 12-E (deadliest storm with at least 80 confirmed as of today due to excessive flooding).
Hope everyone enjoyed tracking this season and found my summary interesting to read! I'll leave this main thread open until the end of 2011 if you want to ask any questions or discuss more. B)
-
Thanks for the summary, Patrick! Very interesting season to track indeed, and we are lucky that we didn't suffer any significant blows. I am glad that anyone on the forums here affected by Irene made it through without any major problems, especially for those of you in North Carolina and the New England area.
-
The only storm I can see being retired is irene as it caused billions of $$ in flooding damage
-
The only storm I can see being retired is irene as it caused billions of $$ in flooding damage
Irene definitely stands a chance due to the costs of damage, and the fact that it had produced the worst flooding in centuries in upstate New York and Vermont. However it does have a rather low fatality rate, even though it was the deadliest of the season.
-
Since there have been no posts here for well over a month and the fact that it's 2012 now, I'm closing down this thread. See you in the 2012 hurricane season!