Hurricane Central 2011

[phw115wvwx]

As of this morning, both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic seasons have seven named storms.  However, the Eastern Pacific has five hurricanes and three major hurricanes, while the Atlantic is still stuck at zero.  I suspect that the transition from La Niña to neutral has hurt the Atlantic a little.  The wind shear, overall upper air pattern with a lot of troughs off the East Coast, and pockets of dry air in places are limiting the potential available for intensification.

Here's a factoid that I discovered for you all:  The latest that any Atlantic season got its first hurricane in the modern era of naming storms is on September 11, 2002 with Hurricane Gustav.  You have to go back to 1941 to find a season when the first hurricane formed later that than date.

[TWCmatthew]

12z GFS run still shows a pretty robust tropical system impacting the SE/mid-Atlantic.

This is 228 hours out, and the GFS tends to overplay systems at times, but this will definitely need to be closely monitored.

[gt1racerlHDl]

i will laugh when all that convection hits the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, especially with the drought starting in parts of the area

[toxictwister00]

We might have TD8 soon, 93L up to 60% of development. There's definitely a circulation showing up nicely, but the convection has been spotty at best right now. It blossomed up this afternoon before waning down some.

1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Visib. Satellite of 93L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[toxictwister00]

Also a sidenote: The 0z GFS continues the US landfall streak making this the 12th run in a row to show a solution of a US landfall!  Either the GFS is incredibly genius or incredibly wrong at this point. Very fascinating to see nonetheless because the tracks haven't been erratic like say a GOM landfall one run then NYC the next, it's consistent in a GOM/SE coast landfall. The track takes it over the FL keys, north into West/Central FL (Around Tampa) It continues northbound until around South/Central Georgia before making a turn NE into the Carolinas,

EURO decided to leave the GFS out in the cold, saying it's being foolish and insane with it's solutions, but the CMC and UKMET (albeit not as aggressive) have the GFS's back.

A picture of our critter of interest and the 0z GFS is attached below. (PROCEED AND HEED THEM WITH CAUTION)

[TWCToday]

The consistency of the GFS is rather interesting.

[toxictwister00]

I'm feeling more confident that this threat may indeed happen. The 0z EURO decided, "Hey, you know what? Maybe the GFS is on to something, I got your back again man. In fact let me scare Savannah, GA with a major hurricane." The EURO is also the most agressive showing a pressure in the 950's! Wow, if that happens Savannah is gonna get raked. 

The following below are other models and their solutions.

06z GFS - Makes it run #13, track similar to 0z run. (only a smudge west)

0z UKMET - Shows the storm, but weaker than GFS/Euro and further south missing Hispanola to track into the GOM.

0z Canadian - Grazes East Coast of FL, hints at NC hit with a pressure of 970mb.

If this disturbance does develop as modeled, don't expect much until around Sunday/Monday when it's near the Leeward Islands, once it's beyond that point it has a chance to really blossom.

Invest 93L - Expect this to be "Harvey" within the next 12-24 hours. NHC upgraded to 80% chance of development.

[toxictwister00]

UPDATE

Run #14! GFS not giving up on US landfall, but  the strength it's forecasting after going over Hispanola/Cuba are in question, but not enough of a concern to worry about this far out. The track once again as it makes landfall near Tampa heading NNE and then rides up I-95  into the Northeast region. Pictures posted below.

[TWCToday]

lol GFS is strengthening over mountains

[toxictwister00]

I've been pretty preoccupied with Invest 97L, I didn't pay the critter behind it any attention. It looks very healthy right now, but I bet it'll be the same song and dance where it'll suffer a bad case of bronchitis from that Saharan Dry Air weakening it before  it gets it's act together.

[Trevor]

[toxictwister00]

18z GFS took a serious turn west...into Texas? lol

[toxictwister00]

Russian Roulette in the Atlantic, Who's gonna be Harvey, Who's Gonna Be Irene, and Who's Gonna Be Jose? 

[Eric]

Russian Roulette in the Atlantic, Who's gonna be Harvey, Who's Gonna Be Irene, and Who's Gonna Be Jose? 

It looks like T.D. Eight will become Harvey.  #3 might have a shot at Irene, though it's obviously much too early to tell.  #2 doesn't seem too promising for any real development... at least not yet.

[toxictwister00]

0z GFS - It shifted east as I suspected would happen, but it's in an area that would be putting salt on open wounds especially since it coincides with the 6th anniversary of the notorious Katrina which affected the same area. I'm really curious to see how the GFS and the other models behave once it's a TD. To me, it doesn't seem to be a question of will it happen, but where? I'm starting to feel like a little kid again waiting for Christmas to arrive just wondering what were gonna get once it's here.

Also, anyone know a website where you can find analogs of past hurricanes? I've heard everything from Hurricane Georges '98, to Hurricane Hugo '89 to Hurricane Donna '60 on other forums.