Hurricane Central 2011

[toxictwister00]

18z GFS Today Hr. 372 (Fantasyland for the GFS right now) - WOW. 
August 26, 2011 - What's more eerie is this is very close to the 6th anniversary of Katrina.

[TWCToday]

Best not to look that long out but interesting nevertheless. 92L and 93L need to be watched

[toxictwister00]

Best not to look that long out but interesting nevertheless. 92L and 93L need to be watched

I know it's just eye candy, scary eye candy, but the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range like this. The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity, it also doesn't hurt that it has the Euro on it's side in all of this in the long range. Looks like the GFS isn't so quick to develop Invest 92L on the 18z run unlike the 0z run last night, more in line with the Euro in being slower.

[ruhgster]

The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity.

I don't mean to come off mean, but you say this like it's no big deal.  Possible changes in the track and intensity are the main reason to not put a lot of trust in a model this far out, not to mention the NHC day 5 path as mentioned by Patrick many times and proven by Emily.  But I do agree it is something interesting to look at, but as a meteorology teacher of mine who worked at the NWS said in class once, "One thing we know for sure, this will not happen
exactly how it's forecast" (referring to a model chart several days out).

[toxictwister00]

The only thing that usually changes is the track and intensity.

I don't mean to come off mean, but you say this like it's no big deal.  Possible changes in the track and intensity are the main reason to not put a lot of trust in a model this far out, not to mention the NHC day 5 path as mentioned by Patrick many times and proven by Emily.  But I do agree it is something interesting to look at, but as a meteorology teacher of mine who worked at the NWS said in class once, "One thing we know for sure, this will not happen
exactly how it's forecast" (referring to a model chart several days out).

No, that's not how I was trying to come off as saying it. What I mean is those two things are reasons it is what it is in the long range eye candy because it will change several times until we get to the short range. That was the first thing I learned about computer models is that anything after 3 days is basically a grain of salt and in the case of Emily this year, anything beyond 3 hours is a grain of salt.

Invest 92L 12z model tracks/wind forecast




Invest 93L

[Mr. Rainman]

Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.

[Zach]

Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.

That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.

The first one is 92L, with speech bubble pointing at it, and the second one is 93L, also with a speech bubble pointing at it.

Also, the low up at the top that has no speech bubble in either images is Emily's remnants.

[toxictwister00]

Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)

[TWCToday]

92L will probably be a fish. 93L is a little more interesting

Something's not right there: I don't think it's possible for both 92L and 93L to have the exact same model tracks.

Correct. There is an error with the source they are using

That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.

No the images posted earlier despite labeled as 92 and 93L were exactly the same. An error

Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)

18z and 300+hr 

[toxictwister00]

Here's another wild solution of eye candy from the GFS! 18z run today, this is Invest 93L and it looks to make landfall near Charleston, SC. (And yes, it does travel up the I-95 corridor into NE beyond this)

18z and 300+hr 
[/quote]

It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.

[Zach]

That is actually how the models are just running it. I'll post some data I plotted in Google Earth.

No the images posted earlier despite labeled as 92 and 93L were exactly the same. An error

Yeah, I can see that now with these new runnings

[TWCToday]

It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.

Is it being consistent? At 0Z I saw the 300+ storm hitting Bermuda, 06z lost it, 12z was a gulf runner. Unless I am missing something it doesn't seem consistent at all

[toxictwister00]

It's nothing but fantasy now, but at least right now it's being consistent in a US landfall in about 10-14 days from now. Like I said before the GFS is good at sniffing out storms in the long range, it'll be interesting to see how things stand by this time next week with Invest 93L.
Also the model spreads for Invest 92/93 was probably an error w/ the Raleigh site, that's where I got them from.

Is it being consistent? At 0Z I saw the 300+ storm hitting Bermuda, 06z lost it, 12z was a gulf runner. Unless I am missing something it doesn't seem consistent at all

Ok, about 80% consistent  , but it's natural for the GFS to lose a storm or in this case send it out to sea and then reverse back to what it was showing before on future runs.

Anyway, we'll probably have "Gert" soon...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[toxictwister00]

LONG RANGE (10 DAYS OUT)

GFS, EURO, AND CMC in agreement of an East Coast Threat for Late August. (0z Runs) CMC is the fastest with the disturbance.

As a bonus....
Farmer's Almanac Forecast for Southeast US.
August 2011
16th-19th. Scattered thunderstorms.
20th-23rd. Pleasant, turning unsettled.
24th-27th. Hazy and humid, with scattered thunderstorms.
28th-31st. Hot and steamy. A hurricane threat for the Southeast.

It'll be interesting to see if the FA is accurate on their long range forecast. Because it's long range, there's still plenty of questions than answers on what will happen, but after reading that forecast on FA, I thought I post this since the dates are aligned with eachother.

[toxictwister00]

For about the 9th straight run in a row the GFS still shows a US threat for the timeframe mentioned in my above post and the past 4 runs today alone continue to show the Gulf Coast under the bullet. It's long range, but that's pretty remarkable. I wonder how long this streak will keep going on the GFS The track hasn't changed drastically either as would be expected in this range. I might even get hurricane force winds out of this run.  The only thing worse than not knowing what will happen is having to wait til short term to see if it happens.