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Author Topic: Hurricane Central 2011  (Read 38610 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #75 on: July 30, 2011, 11:27:23 PM »
Quote from: twcc_ericdn on July 30, 2011, 09:59:37 PM
Even though, as of the most recent report, the tropical wave that could become Emily had a 90% chance of developing into at least a depression, I'm starting to think that we'll have to wait a little longer than expected to see any real development.  I just looked at the latest satellite imagery, and the wave has lost a lot of convection over the past couple of hours.  We'll have to wait until tomorrow when the Sun comes back to see if this trend reverses itself.  Granted, since these expectations are given for two days out, it could still keep its 90% chance, but I think it's lost itself some time tonight.


Here's your possible culprit: Wind Shear
It's moderately strong up to 20 kts on the northside and westside. That may be hindering her development. If it heads NW soon it's going to head into even stronger shear to it's north. I don't know how long it will last at that intensity, but it's something worth monitoring because it could change the outcome of what could really happen with this disturbance.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=91L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
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Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #76 on: July 31, 2011, 12:50:42 AM »
At least in rainbow you can still see some close convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #77 on: July 31, 2011, 01:48:53 AM »
Newest update: near 100% chance of development. A tropical depression now looks imminent. One will likely form tomorrow, and watches and warnings will likely be put up immediately following the declaration of a tropical depression.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #78 on: July 31, 2011, 08:02:48 AM »
Eventhough it hasn't been highlighted as an invest or as any interest, I suspect this disturbance just coming off of the African coast "could" have the potential to become our "F" storm... :thinking:
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #79 on: July 31, 2011, 10:05:30 AM »
Past 5 Hours of Invest 91



HWRF Model...expected to reach Category 1 by Thursday
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 10:10:24 AM by Trevor Birchett »
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #80 on: July 31, 2011, 11:21:08 AM »
My thoughts right now

Red - High Risk/Most Likely to happen
Orange - Medium Risk/ Possible to Happen
Yellow - Low Risk/ Not likely to happen

I should mention, even if it does recurve, I expect there will be higher surf/ rip current risks along the east coast.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 11:22:46 AM by StuckonStoop-id »
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #81 on: July 31, 2011, 11:30:53 AM »
Sorry, Gulf of Mexico. Although there is still a slim possibility future Emily could slip under this trough and ridge to make it into the region, almost all the models now agree on a turn to the NW, impacting parts of the Windward Islands and Hispaniola.

The East Coast will have to wait and see what happens. It all depends on what the models see once this invest becomes a tropical depression. There's a trough - and a fairly strong one at that - being picked up by models in the mid-week moving off the East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a chance that this trough could push the system out to see, with the impacts becoming rip currents and high surf for the East Coast. 
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #82 on: July 31, 2011, 01:29:37 PM »
12z GFS is a recurve, but it's further south and west. It gets pretty darn close to the SE coast before it takes a sharp turn...

Also does anyone know what's with the area to the west of it? It's really blowing up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 01:52:52 PM by StuckonStoop-id »
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #83 on: July 31, 2011, 02:04:24 PM »
NHC keeping near 100% on this system, and recon is enroute to the system right now to see if it is a tropical depression. That separate batch of storms you're looking at - well, NHC seems to interpret it as 91L as well, which is kinda confusing.
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Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #84 on: July 31, 2011, 02:31:48 PM »
That batch of convection west of the Invest looks to be it's own system, but that's just me.
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #85 on: July 31, 2011, 03:09:17 PM »
By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #86 on: July 31, 2011, 05:00:01 PM »
Gotta love technical issues...


UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.  A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #87 on: July 31, 2011, 06:21:40 PM »
Quote from: plane852 on July 31, 2011, 03:09:17 PM
By what I've read, looks like 91L sorta got torn in two...and now there are two areas of storms competing for energy and organization. Although the western batch at the Windward Islands have more convection...it's not showing any circulation...and recon soundings look to put winds at around 20 mph. The eastern batch is showing clear rotation and its center of circulation is evident...I think that is the batch to look for over the next few hours.

You're right, both areas are highlighted as one now.
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #88 on: July 31, 2011, 10:24:54 PM »
Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.

Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.

Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.
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Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2011
« Reply #89 on: July 31, 2011, 11:03:52 PM »
I expected that there would be a hurricane striking within the first week I moved to Florida.  Looks like I was just half a month off.  Still, though, a category 1 storm is much better than, say, Charlie, which, even though it made landfall on the west coast of Florida, did quite a lot of severe damage in the Daytona Beach area.
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