Hurricane Central 2011

[Mr. Rainman]

Since it's a fish storm, I'm not surprised to not see a thread on it, but it's worth mentioning that Hurricane Dora in the East Pacific has become a real monster of a storm. It started out as a measly Cat 1 hurricane this morning, with winds around 90 mph, but at the latest NHC update, the winds are now at 135 mph, and it has a really well-defined eye. Although it's window of opportunity is closing in, we may see a Category 5 hurricane in the next few days.


Visible imagery of Hurricane DORA
 

[toxictwister00]

I have an itchy feeling this little critter will be our "D" storm. I guess we shall see, development is expected to be slow the next few days.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[Mr. Rainman]

Nothing to get excited about, but I've been comparing the pace of last year's storms to this year. Don't jump to conclusions on this, because it may change completely, but we are ahead of the pace of 2010 by about 2 weeks. Here are the exact numbers:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Hurricane Alex: June 25th - July 2nd
Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 22nd - 24th
Tropical Storm Colin: August 2nd - 8th

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Arlene: June 29th - July 1st: 4 Days Behind 2010
Tropical Storm Bret: July 17th - PRESENT: 5 Days Ahead of 2010
Tropical Storm Cindy: July 20th - PRESENT: 13 Days Ahead of 2010

Again, nothing to make broad conclusions about, but it's worth making a point about it.

[Mr. Rainman]

That invest mentioned above is putting out some interesting model runs...almost all the models are saying this storm will hit Cuba and vicinity before heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The BAMM goes all out and points to a landfall in SW Alabama. Too far out to really rely on one, but looking at this data suggests we may have a landfall with this system.

[Mike M]

Latest on Dora

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...DORA WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 111.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL AND WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

[toxictwister00]

It's just one run, but the 0z NAM computer model shows the current tropical wave w/ 10% of development approaching the GOM as a tropical storm at a pressure of 1003 mb at hr 84. If the run went out any further, I would assume it would take it onshore somewhere on the LA shore.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

[toxictwister00]

24 Hours ago this tropical wave was on life support, only had a 0% chance of development. Now it's back up to 30%. It's possible we could have a TD or even Don by tomorrow if it continues to organize as well as it has today. It's heading into a very favorable environment and as it stands right now could bring welcome rainfall to Texas by this weekend.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.  HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source: National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[toxictwister00]

I got these from another weather forum.

18z model tracks for Invest 90L


Model Projected Storm Strengths

[toxictwister00]

8pm Update - Upgraded to 40% Code Orange

[phw115wvwx]

Tavores, let's keep invests in this thread until it develops into something.  I do feel there is a decent chance here for this tropical wave to develop further.

[toxictwister00]

Tavores, let's keep invests in this thread until it develops into something.  I do feel there is a decent chance here for this tropical wave to develop further.

Understood, I'll remember that next time. 

2 AM Update - 70% Chance Of Development CODE RED
According to the NHC, this invest is showing more signs of a LLC (Low Level Circulation)

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO.  IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

8 AM Update - Upgraded to 80% Chance of Development (TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TODAY)

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

[gt1racerlHDl]

does it have a better chance to hit the TX/LA coast? or have the same path as Arlene?

[toxictwister00]

does it have a better chance to hit the TX/LA coast? or have the same path as Arlene?

There are still 3 possibilities:
1. Makes landfall in Northern Mexico
2. Makes landfall anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston, TX
3. Makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

Right now, #2 is most likely and hopefully it will pan out that way. Tropical downpours is exactly what the lonestar state needs.

The 12z GFS model is going w/ #3, but it keeps the system poorly organized the entire time.
The 12z NAM model has the system make landfall near Houston,TX

[toxictwister00]

The 6z HWRF model peaks the system as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane (989mb) while making landfall in TX
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnesthwrfLoop.html