Hurricane Central 2011

[Mr. Rainman]

We could be saying hello to Tropical Depression One in the Pacific very, very soon. NHC gives an area of low pressure in the Pacific a 60% of development in the next day or two. Adrian may be coming soon after that.

[Localonthe8s]

I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems and can make tracking storms confusing. Maybe we can make this thread for the Pacific and the other thread for the Atlantic hurricane season

[phw115wvwx]

I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems.

Don't worry.  Once we actually get some tropical depressions or storms, they will each have their own thread to make it easier to separate.  Furthermore, the Eastern Pacific usually doesn't get discussed much, so it wouldn't do well as a topic to itself.

[Localonthe8s]

I'm not sure if we should be discussing the Atlantic and Pacific seasons into one thread..since both are relatively different systems.

Don't worry.  Once we actually get some tropical depressions or storms, they will each have their own thread to make it easier to separate.  Furthermore, the Eastern Pacific usually doesn't get discussed much, so it wouldn't do well as a topic to itself.

ok, I forgot to edit my post before you posted lol but that sounds good

[gt1racerlHDl]

40%

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Mr. Rainman]

There is now a 90% chance of development in the Pacific. Tropical Depression One-E should form tomorrow or Tuesday, at the latest.

From the NHC:


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. 
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Anistorm]

I'm pretty sure that low will develop by tomorrow or so. It looks pretty organized.

[toxictwister00]

I'm not sure if this is the same system or not, but the 6z GFS shows a weak tropical storm/depression with abundant moisture making landfall around New Orleans on the 20th. It then heads north at the end of the run towards Illinois.

[Zach]

When TWC this morning compared both sides of the tropics, the Caribbean disturbance looked healthier than the Pacific disturbance

[Eric]

As of 8:00 am Pacific time, TD One-E has formed.

[phw115wvwx]

That tropical wave in the Caribbean missed its window of opportunity and is fizzling out now.  Everything else is quiet as expected for early June.  Meanwhile, we have our first tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific, so look for Adrian's storm thread to continue discussion on it there.

[toxictwister00]

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that the american computer model GFS was showing a tropical disturbance around the latter end of this month and much to my surprise it's still there! It's been off and on from model run to run and unfortunately it seems to be gone on the runs today since the 00z last night , but since the idea has been hinted this long I believe it'll be back again. Even better if there's not a tropical storm Arlene out of this, the Southeast will be getting drenched as we shift into a stormier weather pattern meaning some much needed drought relief. I'm hoping we do get something tropical though, it's a much quicker drought relief than scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

[toxictwister00]

First Tropical Depression coming soon?

50% chance of development.

Satellite pictures and surface observations suggest that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern bay of campeche is gradually becoming better defined. Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for significant development, these winds are forecast to become more favorable during the next day or so. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly west-northwestward. An Air Force reserve unit Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the area Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the yucatan peninsula and southeastern Mexico tonight. These rains and winds will gradually spread westward into northeastern Mexico during the next day or two.

Source: www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1]https://secure.[url=http://www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1]www.stormpulse.com/?fsd=1[/url]

[toxictwister00]

We almost have Tropical Depression #1 - 90% chance of development.

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[phw115wvwx]

We almost have Tropical Depression #1 - 90% chance of development.

You can skip the depression part and head straight to our first storm thread for the Atlantic here:
https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-arlene/