Hurricane Central 2011

[toxictwister00]

Bad news and worse news on 91L, folks.

Bad news: The Bahamas and the general area are gonna see this storm as a strong tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane, according to the latest model runs. This is not new.

Worse news: With every model run, the tracks have shifted just a tiny bit west and a little to the south. Looking at the latest model guidance, it is now reasonable to conclude that Eastern Florida now faces a potential landfall threat as the system begins curving towards the northwest. This is not wishcasting; this is not hypecasting. This is a forecast based on model runs.

Seems like the models that hint at that pull the trough out of the NE before it can pick up "Emily"  and quickly curve it out to sea.

Definitely a shift west on the 0z model spreads, there's even one that keeps it going west through the Caribbean.

[toxictwister00]

6z GFS - Wow, I don't buy it, but wow. Direct bullseye for FL heading north to GA/FL border before being swept out to sea by an incoming trough. It also really ramps up in intensity once it's out out sea again.

Around hour 132 is when it makes landfall in South Florida.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

As a sidenote, this disturbance is mentioned in the forecast discussion from the Peachtree City NWS office that serves Atlanta

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOWS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THAT COULD DEPEND ON INDIRECT TROPICAL
INFLUENCES IN THE EXTENDED.

[Donovan]

My Morning forecast outlook.
[TFDATD]
USA Weather - Tropical Forecast Division
Atlantic Tropical Discussion **Update**
9:03 AM EDT Monday, August 1, 2011


Tropical Depression 91L
Located: 14.1 N 53.6 W
Winds: 25 kts | 30 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb | 29.71 inches



...TD 91L EXPERECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP...



A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS NOTED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO A LIGHT SHEAR ZONE, WHERE IT WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED THAT OUT TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SOME MARGINALLY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO TRACK WEST THROUGHT THE DAY TODAY, THEN SHIFT NORTH WEST TUESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF US IMPACTS MID/LATE WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.



ELSE WHERE, TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC WEST OF AFRICA. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE OF. MORE DETAILS WILL BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT UPDATE AT 11AM ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L.



 









 

GATLIN

[Eric]

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

[Donovan]

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

[Eric]

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

But that's just wrong.  A tropical depression requires certain accepted conditions, and this tropical wave doesn't yet meet all of these conditions.  If it did, then it would have been designated as a depression by the National Hurricane Center.

Who is the person giving the orders, and what kind of qualifications does he have?!

[gt1racerlHDl]

GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

[Donovan]

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

But that's just wrong.  A tropical depression requires certain accepted conditions, and this tropical wave doesn't yet meet all of these conditions.  If it did, then it would have been designated as a depression by the National Hurricane Center.

Who is the person giving the orders, and what kind of qualifications does he have?!

I agree with you completely. Recon did not find a closed circulation at the surface this AM... But, still he begs to differ. GO figure. Qualifications? Eh, No idea.

[Trevor]

I originally had my target point for landfall as Wilmington, NC; but I have widened it to include Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

If he has no qualifications, then he is technically providing false information. I would not listen to him...

[Donovan]

I originally had my target point for landfall as Wilmington, NC; but I have widened it to include Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

If he has no qualifications, then he is technically providing false information. I would not listen to him...

I agree. This isn't exactly something I wanted to talk about here, but I guess oops? I'm taking this up with he/she later... I don't approve of undermining the authority of NHC/NWS

[twcctornado77]

GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

Wow... looks like it's gonna miss the US. **fingers crossed**

[Eric]

GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

Wow... looks like it's gonna miss the US. **fingers crossed**

That is - by far - the most easterly track I've seen predicted for this system.

[Mr. Rainman]

It looks like it. We can hope, of course, but you've gotta factor in the other models and what they say. I still say the U.S. isn't completely clear from this.

[toxictwister00]

GFS

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

Hmm, if that's the 0z GFS from last night, it's different from the same run on this site. It's much further west closer to the FL coast...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

12z GFS still says South Florida landfall, traveling north through the Sunshine state before a trough pushes it out to sea on  the GA/SC coast similar to the 6z run this morning.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html

12z Canadian is going with a Gulf Of Mexico solution again, the pressure is down to 999mb making landfall on the FL panhandle. These scenarios are interesting, but it's still too early to buy into this. One thing is for certain, the longer it takes for this thing to develop a low level circulation so it can become a depression and tropical storm, the greater the chances these solutions could be plausible.

[gt1racerlHDl]

NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

From: http://spaghettimodels.com/