Hurricane Central 2011

[gt1racerlHDl]

Here's what the Water Temps look like for Invest 97L

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl_tmap.html

Scroll to the SE to see the other Florida/Georgia and GOM water temps

[toxictwister00]

TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm.

Well technically it isn't a typical projected path, it's just highlighting areas of concern going by the dynamical models of where Invest 97L could go. Once we get a Tropical Depression and can more accurately locate a low level center of circulation, the models will start honing in better on an area that's most likely to be hit. Right now they're still jumping all over the place going past Haiti/DR. We got anything from a New Orleans hit to a Carolinas hit.

Also I wouldn't be so quick to discount this even if it does go over Haiti/DR/Cuba, Hurricanes/Tropical Cyclones have surmounted those obstacles before, Hurricane Gustav from 2008 is a good example. In addition to this, it's still possible it will miss those islands all together or barely scrape them to the south which I don't have to remind anyone that it would be much worse having the advantage to strengthen and become very powerful. It kinda bothers me that people assume it's a goner if it went over those islands, not every tropical cyclone is affected the same, some suffer worse than others and some might suffer very little disruption of the circulation.   

[Eric]

TWC is really hyping this invest and giving a projected path BEFORE it has even become anything (something I don't recall happening before). I'm just wondering if it's going to be much of a threat at all because it's got a lot of land to pass over in the Caribbean before it hits the U.S. I guess rain may be the #1 concern with this storm.

They're not the only ones.  Central Florida TV is doing the same thing.  And it's not the first tropical wave they've done that for this year.

[toxictwister00]

As far as the hyping, I'm not surprised, that's why I asked about that last night. I can understand the reason why, it's the first legit threat to the US this Hurricane Season and possibly the first hurricane threat we've had since Ike in 2008.

Speaking of Invest 97L, it's been updated to 90% chance of development, TD 9 is possible at any moment within the next 48 hours.

12z EURO wastes no time rapidly intensifying this storm and bombs it down to a pressure in the 960's as it hits FL dead on moving north, that's when the fun begins for me to go through the eye, I'm gonna get whacked!   

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER HISPANIOLA
BY MONDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

[toxictwister00]

8pm advisory is going to be interesting, we might skip TD 9 and go straight into Tropical Storm Irene w/ Invest 97L.

[wachirawits12]

Even though the NHC hasn't put it out yet but we have Irene....

Irene is currently at 50mph....

[Eric]

I wasn't a member of this forum during the last landfalling U.S. hurricane, so I have a question...

Is it expected (or requested, or just asked for) that those in the path of a hurricane or other tropical system post reports about what's going on?  I think it would make for some interesting reading.  I'm not working Thursday, Friday, and the first half of Saturday, so I'll be able to write about the storm so long as the power holds out.

Who else is in the expected path of the storm?  Where are you?  I'm in Daytona Beach, Florida, and tropical storm conditions are expected here from Thursday night through Saturday morning.  Right now, they're predicting we'll probably escape most hurricane-force winds, since the track keeps shifting to the east.

[phw115wvwx]

Eric, we have no rule on hurricane reports, so it's completely voluntary.  You're welcome to make brief posts if you have the time and can do so safely.  I would advise for reports to be posted within the storm thread itself.

[WeatherWitness]

I wasn't a member of this forum during the last landfalling U.S. hurricane, so I have a question...

Is it expected (or requested, or just asked for) that those in the path of a hurricane or other tropical system post reports about what's going on?  I think it would make for some interesting reading.  I'm not working Thursday, Friday, and the first half of Saturday, so I'll be able to write about the storm so long as the power holds out.

Who else is in the expected path of the storm?  Where are you?  I'm in Daytona Beach, Florida, and tropical storm conditions are expected here from Thursday night through Saturday morning.  Right now, they're predicting we'll probably escape most hurricane-force winds, since the track keeps shifting to the east.

Please post reports, if you can Eric. It's always very interesting to hear accounts from members who are experiencing the storm first-hand.

But as Patrick said, you are not required to do this. It's not like you're going to be permanently banned or anything if we realize you are in the path of the storm but don't post anything. Just remember, safety is your #1 priority. It probably isn't a good idea to be on the computer and write about a hurricane if you are somehow caught in the middle of one.

BTW, are you going to have to evacuate?

[Eric]

So that contract I signed in blood wasn't for THIS forum?  Well... good to know, anyway. 

No, I very seriously doubt I'll have to evacuate.  I'm actually quite a distance from the coast, so I certainly hope flooding isn't going to be an issue.  How long the electricity will stay on - that's a question.  But I already have plenty of batteries, flashlights, radios, tinned food, and so on, so I'll be fine.

[Anistorm]

So that contract I signed in blood wasn't for THIS forum?  Well... good to know, anyway. 

No, I very seriously doubt I'll have to evacuate.  I'm actually quite a distance from the coast, so I certainly hope flooding isn't going to be an issue.  How long the electricity will stay on - that's a question.  But I already have plenty of batteries, flashlights, radios, tinned food, and so on, so I'll be fine.

It's best to be prepared for a hurricane like this juuuuust in case. Glad to see that you're ready for the storm I hope it doesn't affect your area too much.

[Eric]

I already have experience from Massachusetts (yes!) in living through minor hurricanes, and Irene's forecast seems to indicate that we'll experience some moderate tropical storm conditions late this week.

[toxictwister00]

I know were all preoccupied with Irene, but there is another invest out in the East Atlantic that could be making a run towards becoming Jose. It looks to be a fish right now if it does develop.

Invest 90L

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Mr. Rainman]

New large wave just moved off of Africa. Looks like it has a decent chance of development over the next several days.

[toxictwister00]

New large wave just moved off of Africa. Looks like it has a decent chance of development over the next several days.

I don't know about wind shear, but dry air doesn't look to be an issue. Very little of it now than it has been this summer, so if shear is light I don't see anything getting in it's way. It looks healthy already.