Hurricane Central 2011

[phw115wvwx]

I hope you guys realize that the models don't do a good job with features that aren't even classified as tropical depressions or storms yet.  I wait until it's actually something to allow time for ship reports and recon flights to put data into the models so that they have a far better handle on it.  Tracking a tropical wave with little data is dangerous.

Donovan, I don't understand why you're making that depression statement when it's completely false.  There is no closed surface circulation, so it's not a tropical cyclone, period.  You can't even call a tropical depression by its invest number anyway, which is what I see on the headline of your statement.  There's even a slim chance that this wave may never develop into anything!  Whoever you're working for needs to learn about real Meteorology.

[toxictwister00]

I hope you guys realize that the models don't do a good job with features that aren't even classified as tropical depressions or storms yet.  I wait until it's actually something to allow time for ship reports and recon flights to put data into the models so that they have a far better handle on it.  Tracking a tropical wave with little data is dangerous.

Donovan, I don't understand why you're making that depression statement when it's completely false.  There is no closed surface circulation, so it's not a tropical cyclone, period.  You can't even call a tropical depression by its invest number anyway, which is what I see on the headline of your statement.  There's even a slim chance that this wave may never develop into anything!  Whoever you're working for needs to learn about real Meteorology.

Very true, that's why I'm not buying into the models showing a Florida hit or GOM hit yet. They may be misplacing where the LLC is giving off false tracks and intensities. It's almost the same during the winter where some models don't grasp onto the right solution for a winter storm until it's taking shape in the lower 48's.

[Mr. Rainman]

Again, my fault for jumping to conclusions on the models. I won't make judgments on landfall, track, and intensity this early. My bad.

I do want to clear something up that is starting to mildly annoy me slightly, and that is the criticism Donovan has been getting for his forecast. Since I work in the same division as him, I'll go ahead and explain this entire thing to you guys now:

Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.

I agree with you all that one should wait on these declarations until the NHC says something. But people, I'm wondering how much clearer Donovan has to make it: this was not my call, nor was it Donovan's. It was the directors. Now, I'm going to ask that if you have ANY criticism towards that forecast, that you steer it away from Donovan. It wasn't his personal call. He knows it's not a tropical depression.

NHC downgraded this invest to 80%.

[Donovan]

Well.... I'm just gonna act like I didn't read all of that and forget it. Just know, I'm no fool, I know my weather basics... Now I forgive those who can't or didn't read those posts. 

[phw115wvwx]

I think we should just move on here.  I apologize if my post was a little harsh towards you, Donovan.  As you can tell, it always pinches a nerve when individuals or companies try to go on their own and declare things that aren't true according to official sources.

Anyway, another recon flight is in progress, so we'll see if anything comes up this evening on this wave.

[Eric]

Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.

At the risk of insulting your employer, I am going to say that this is just plain stupid.  The NHC alone has the duty and the authority to declare a system tropical.

Does this director really believe that people are going to listen to USA Weather over the National Hurricane Center regarding a tropical system?  Does this director feel that, for the purposes of "beating" the NHC at declaring a system tropical, it is worthwhile to just disregard the established guidelines of what makes a system tropical in the first place?!

Stupid. 

[Donovan]

Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.

At the risk of insulting your employer, I am going to say that this is just plain stupid.  The NHC alone has the duty and the authority to declare a system tropical.

Does this director really believe that people are going to listen to USA Weather over the National Hurricane Center regarding a tropical system?  Does this director feel that, for the purposes of "beating" the NHC at declaring a system tropical, it is worthwhile to just disregard the established guidelines of what makes a system tropical in the first place?!

Stupid. 

Okay.... Well i'll set it straight.

[Donovan]

In other news.... It looks like some dry air and some shear has resulted in the wave being downgraded to 80%... Looking at models this morning I knew deep down that something was going to hinder the development today. Also, someone told me recon has found the pressure dropping and they haven't arrived at the wave yet.

[Mr. Rainman]

I agree whole-heartedly with your statement. We are trying to make a compromise with him so we do not have this issue again.

[Mr. Rainman]

Tropical Weather Summaries for the month of July:

Atlantic:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THREE NAMED STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY.  THIS WAS WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2010) AVERAGE OF
ONE.

Pacific:

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE BASIN DURING JULY WAS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  THREE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...AND TWO
BECAME HURRICANES...WITH DORA REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ON
AVERAGE THREE TO FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORM IN THE BASIN DURING JULY
...WITH TWO REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY AND ONE BECOMING A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

[Lightning]

Hopefully this thing makes landfall on Texas, they desperately need some rain after the drought.

You mean they desperately need rain since they are in such a bad drought. "After" would mean that the drought there is over and it's nowhere near over. I hope they get much-needed rain, too.

[Mr. Rainman]

NOAA released their revised prediction for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season today. Here are the new numbers, compared to the older season. Allow me to remind you how the 2010 season went:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Named Storms: 19
Hurricanes: 12
Major Hurricanes: 5

NOAA's First Forecast - May 19th, 2011
Named Storms: 12-18
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-6

NOAA's Revised Forecast - August 4th, 2011
Named Storms: 14-19
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-5

This implies to me, at least, that if NOAA is right, we may be facing a season just as active as last year.

[toxictwister00]

Long range models such as the GFS and EURO are showing mid-late August turning active and possibly ugly within the next week.

0z GFS decides it wants to scare the crap out of NYC and Boston by giving them a close call w/ a hurricane, but alas an incoming trough comes to save the day and brush it out to sea.
This will most likely be "Gert" as the current Invest 92L has already stayed out to sea as a fish storm prior to this storm.


If you thought the GFS was scary, wait until you see the EURO. It appears to be going for a double whammy. Having both Invest 92L ("Franklin") and possible future "Gert" hot on it's heels heading towards the NE region.
As always these scenarios are never set in stone will change a million times, but I would stay vigilant if you live on the Eastern Seaboard the next couple of weeks because I do believe things will get ugly quickly. I'm more concerned about the system behind Invest 92L right now which may become "Gert" and a serious threat to the US.
I don't know a whole lot about teleconnections, but from my understanding at another weather forum, The -NAO is expected to go positive in a few days which will probably allow for more of an east coast threat in late August. Not to alarm anyone, but please if you live on the coastal areas of FL to MA start preparing now while you still can. Don't wait until the last minute to come up with a hurricane evacuation plan or supplies to have once it's here. Eventhough it's very long range, the threat could very well be real in the short range.

Here's the 0z EURO

[Zach]

What about Franklin?

[toxictwister00]

Oh lordy, lordy! 4 count em' 4 areas of interest!  (Well, we can ignore #3, it's just that pesky Emily)