Hurricane Central 2009

[phw115wvwx]

Im going to say there's low probability of the low forming into subtropical Ana b/c as of now the low is encountering lots of sheer.  However, a chance is still something we should watch over in the next couple of days.

NHC released a statement earlier today saying that it's not expecting anything to develop as that low is being absorbed into a larger non-tropical low.  There was a planned hurricane hunter investigation flight for it today, but NHC decided to cancel it.

[TWCToday]

Bye Invest90

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

NOAA Just released their hurricane season outlook. This has to do w/the explanation I stated above. Regardless be prepared for hurricane season! Because it only take one hurricane to cause catastrophic damage!

[TWCToday]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222345
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM Edt FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[phw115wvwx]

That area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has already moved inland today, so there's no chance of it developing any further.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

That area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has already moved inland today, so there's no chance of it developing any further.

Yup....

Here's the S image

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH
10N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AT 24/1630 UTC. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT POSSIBLY IS THE AXIS ALONG 54W.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N10W
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT
THE MOMENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW EVEN EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT COMPARATIVELY SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS AND CYCLONIC CENTERS
MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC AREA.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 92W
AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM 23N74W IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 27N78W IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS...TO 32N81W NEAR THE BORDER OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 80W...IS COVERED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND FROM CIMSS-SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AT
24/1500 UTC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA ARE
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW LEADING TO ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 19N
TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 31N46W 20N58W 17N59W WATER VAPOR
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N46W TO 20N58W
TO 17N59W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N45W TO 30N44W 25N50W AND 20N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N55W 25N46W 30N38W...AND FROM 30N TO
35N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N45W 20N65W SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST
OF 30W.

$$
MT

[Localonthe8s]

i wanna see a tropical storm.

[toxictwister00]

i wanna see a tropical storm.

I do too, the rain and wind from this low is similar to a tropical storm, I got wet leaving the movies yesterday because of the strong winds.

[Anistorm]

i wanna see a tropical storm.

you mean Tropical Storm Ana? Me too.
Besides, we're almost there to the start!

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Dont worry guys we will def see at least one tropical storm. 

[TWCToday]

Its not even hurricane season yet. Of course we will see one

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 242335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER
NORTH APPEAR TO BE ADVECTING CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT...THE WAVE HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO 17N...CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 6N...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...AND NE BRAZIL. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-17N.

ADDITIONALLY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATES THAT A NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IS ALONG 25W S OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
ALSO...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
19W-24W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA DO NOT YET CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE NEAR THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS SUSPECTED TO BE PRESENT
HERE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N21W 1N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W EXTENDING TO 1S41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
1W-6W...S OF 3N BETWEEN 9W-18W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
19W-24W...AND S OF 3N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N79W TO 27N85W TO 30N89W TO NW OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALSO...SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N91W TO 32N91W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND FROM S
TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO 30N94W TO 31N93W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGHS...AS WELL AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 89W...N OF 27N W
OF 89W...AS WELL AS ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING E TO SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-30N W
OF 74W INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS OF
FLORIDA...AS WELL AS S OF 24N BETWEEN 68W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N44W TO 29N50W
TO 25N55W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N48W
TO 32N44W TO 24N51W TO 21N67W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-48W AND FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
45W-68W. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE PRESENT FROM 1N-7N E OF 13W AND S
OF 5N BETWEEN 23W-48W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W S OF 17N.

$$
COHEN

[phw115wvwx]

The first tropical storm of the Atlantic doesn't come until July 10 based on climatology, so just be patient.  We'll get one sooner or later.   NHC made a really nice climatology section, which I've linked here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?

[Anistorm]

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

TD ONE has been formed and it may become Ana in 12 hours!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/281450.shtml?