Think its going to be a busy year?
From 12Z EURO
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From 12Z EURO
[url]http://i41.tinypic.com/2w7oi1k.jpg[/url] ([url]http://i41.tinypic.com/2w7oi1k.jpg[/url])
TWC has been talking about a possible subtropical storm forming next week off the SE coast, it wouldn't surprise me, the first storm has been forming during the past 2 or 3 Mays in a row.
Im going to say there's low probability of the low forming into subtropical Ana b/c as of now the low is encountering lots of sheer. However, a chance is still something we should watch over in the next couple of days.NHC released a statement earlier today saying that it's not expecting anything to develop as that low is being absorbed into a larger non-tropical low. There was a planned hurricane hunter investigation flight for it today, but NHC decided to cancel it.
That area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has already moved inland today, so there's no chance of it developing any further.
i wanna see a tropical storm.
i wanna see a tropical storm.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 281449
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 282031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 565 MILES...905 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER
WATERS BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
See! I told you that a tropical system would develop before June! ^_^
That came out of nowhere.See! I told you that a tropical system would develop before June! ^_^
And they have been since May 2007............
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
...DEPRESSION HEADING FOR COLDER WATERS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 420
MILES...670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...38.9N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
Say good-bye to Tropical Depression #1 as NHC has issued the last advisory on it as of 5 PM. I was really wondering the whole time whether it was worth even giving the classification to a small storm that had little potential to do anything. :thinking:
Say good-bye to Tropical Depression #1 as NHC has issued the last advisory on it as of 5 PM. I was really wondering the whole time whether it was worth even giving the classification to a small storm that had little potential to do anything. :thinking:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 108.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220249
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009
...FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 330 MILES...
530 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 101.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
Well, we've been lucky so far this year. So far we have had no Atlantic named storms through the start of July, the latest since 2004. :yes:
I think the whole East Coast is at risk for a major hurricane sometime, when, I don't know.lol touche :bleh:
05-Katrina comes to mindDennis was the big one. We did feel Katrina, but Dennis directly affected our area.
05-Katrina comes to mindDennis was the big one. We did feel Katrina, but Dennis directly affected our area.
I was in Tampa for Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne back in 2004 which luckily was only a category 1 or 2 when it got to my place.
Tropical Storm Carlos just formed...could become a hurricane later on...Carlos also poses no threat to land unless it reaches Hawaii, which doesn't happen very often. With big indications of an El Nino forming, tropical activity in the Atlantic will likely be normal to below normal overall.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
...SPRAWLING DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 680 MILES...1090 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A
STEADIER MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER THAT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 113.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
...COMPACT CARLOS A LITTLE STRONGER...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1525 MILES...2450 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45
MILES...75 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.0N 128.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
TD #5 in the East Pacific has now become Tropical Storm Dolores. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is dead quiet.
Two tropical storms, Enrique and Felicia, formed in the Eastern Pacific over the last fifteen hours and are spinning unusually close to each other. Both do not pose any immediate threat to land as they head westward. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is still quiet, but a tropical wave that emerged off the African coast yesterday is being monitored for any possible development. Stay tuned!
It looks like we can expect Felicia to gain hurricane status soon, possibly as soon as the update at 5 pm EDT. I am interested to see how these two affect each other, and if Felicia will have any impacts on Hawaii early next week.Thanks for the update Ryan! :)
Is it possible to not have a single named-storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season? :dunno: Since we've had no named storms yet, this comes to mind, although I am no where near guaranteeing anything.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I'm glad to see that this is a very calm season, but coming up this Thursday will be the One-year anniversery that I had to evacuate from Charley; then it decided to make landfall elsewhere.One year anniversary? :wacko: You mean five year, right? Charley was in 2004. ;)
Is it possible to not have a single named-storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season? :dunno: Since we've had no named storms yet, this comes to mind, although I am no where near guaranteeing anything.There has always been at least one tropical storm reported in the Atlantic based on all records kept since 1851.
So a hurricane/tropical storm can form a single tropical "wave"? :huh: I'm a little lost as to how a wave can cause such a big system.A tropical wave is simply a cluster of thunderstorms around one broad area of low pressure. If conditions are just right with warm water and low wind shear, that area of low pressure can strengthen to allow more thunderstorms to fire. If the whole system is able to develop a closed circulation and have high enough winds, the tropical wave will be organized enough to become a tropical depression. There's more complexity behind what I said naturally, but that's the basic idea.
So a hurricane/tropical storm can form a single tropical "wave"? :huh: I'm a little lost as to how a wave can cause such a big system.
uhoh Ana will be in for some excitement :P
Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising
I was thinking that too!Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising
That may be the system being picked up by the GFS in today's runs.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES...560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY
OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 29.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
Double Whammy?
I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.
Double Whammy?
I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.
GFS tends to overexaggerate! As Patrick says to me, those models are designed for mid-latutide weather. Also the GFS model beyond 7 days suck. Dont rely on that!
Double Whammy?
I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.
GFS tends to overexaggerate! As Patrick says to me, those models are designed for mid-latutide weather. Also the GFS model beyond 7 days suck. Dont rely on that!
That's true, but it's not overexaggerating that much, other models are showing similar solutions of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the EC sometime around the 23rd -26th of this month and they have been consistent in showing that the past few days, it's the tropical disturbance leaving the African coast as we speak that's being picked on models as being a significant hurricane once it gets near the Caribbean. I don't even believe TD 2 will become Ana, I think the wave leaving Africa now has a better chance of being named Ana.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 120252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
According to the DVORAK readings, tropical storm ANA has formed....Advisory will come out in 2 hours...let's see how they will declare thisRod, this is why you can't go by those readings alone: The 11 AM EDT advisory still keeps Tropical Depression #2 at 35 mph as it tries to get organized against shear.
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L
According to the DVORAK readings, tropical storm ANA has formed....Advisory will come out in 2 hours...let's see how they will declare thisRod, this is why you can't go by those readings alone: The 11 AM EDT advisory still keeps Tropical Depression #2 at 35 mph as it tries to get organized against shear.
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Interesting...I thought TD 2 was going to develop into something (maybe even a hurricane), but I guess it ran into conditions that greatly weakened it (although it never really was much :P).
Any ideas on when the second "disturbance" will become a TD? :dunno:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 132041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009
...DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1500 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 38.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AREPic attached below.
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150425
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO REGENERATES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
AT 1230 AM AST...0430 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1075 MILES...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEKEND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA BUOY 41041 IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 45.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.5N 34.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
Where's Storm Alert? :P
Is TD 3 that tropical wave that was being watched closely? :unsure:
Where's Storm Alert? :P
Is TD 3 that tropical wave that was being watched closely? :unsure:
Yes. Its expected to really strengthen. NHC has the forecast strength over the next 5 days up to a Cat2
Models with TS Ana are all over the place right now.
([url]http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200902_model.gif[/url])
Yep it's about to see some action. The tropical wave in the Caribbean has a potential to develop into Claudette but it's not very likely. Could bill, if it forms, hit the Northeast?
00z run of the GFS takes potential "Hurricane Bill" near Miami,FL (similar to Andrew) weakens, intensifies and makes a second landfall into the FL Panhandle.That's nowhere near Miami, that's right just where Frances and Jeanne made landfall. :o
00z run of the GFS takes potential "Hurricane Bill" near Miami,FL (similar to Andrew) weakens, intensifies and makes a second landfall into the FL Panhandle.That's nowhere near Miami, that's right just where Frances and Jeanne made landfall. :o
Now I'm really doomed. :(
00z run of the GFS takes potential "Hurricane Bill" near Miami,FL (similar to Andrew) weakens, intensifies and makes a second landfall into the FL Panhandle.I thought that was Ana and the thing off the east coast was the system trailing Ana (Bill)?
Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas [url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url] ([url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url])
Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas [url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url] ([url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url])
Wait, so will TD3 (future Bill) go near Florida or further north to the Carolinas? :unsure: People are saying two things here...guess we'll have to wait a little and see. :dunno:
Btw, here's an animated version of the GFS model. You'll find this site very helpful. :yes:
[url]http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html[/url] ([url]http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html[/url])
Lastest GFS model update shows Ana crossing over Florida, reforming in gulf. TD3 is shown brushing the Carolinas [url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url] ([url]http://bit.ly/3Zgkvv[/url])
Wait, so will TD3 (future Bill) go near Florida or further north to the Carolinas? :unsure: People are saying two things here...guess we'll have to wait a little and see. :dunno:
I thought the GFS model was showing Ana crossing FL. Perhaps i was wrong
Well these are all guesses based on long ranged models. Dont hold your breath on them. In fact the latest runs fizzles Ana but develops Bill while curving them off the east coast. Ana is a small system and i imagine GFS is having a hard time with initialization of it.
Although chances of development are low... been looking at this system off the FL coast. Seems to have fired up today
([url]http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8286/post183712503598142292.gif[/url])
000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS
STRENGTHENED AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BILL..THE SECOND NAME
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
35.2 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.3N 35.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
I can technically say that TWC is in Storm alert mode because they keep showing TS ANA HAS FORMED....on the BBOD and the Bill, Ana intros
I can technically say that TWC is in Storm alert mode because they keep showing TS ANA HAS FORMED....on the BBOD and the Bill, Ana intros
It's kind of annoying that even tropical storms more than 5 days away from the U.S. will prompt TWC to focus primarily on the tropics. <_<
Also, I wonder how strong Ana will be when it hits the United States. It looks like it will lose a lot of strength when it runs into Cuba. :yes:
I had no faith in this thing yesterday becoming anything! :P
The disturbance in the GOM is now Invest 91L, so it still poses a low threat of developing, maybe it will pull a Hurricane Humberto and rapidly intensify? :dunno: It looks like a circlation is trying to develop if you ask me.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NEW DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA NEAR THE PATH
OF THE CENTER.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.
Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.
Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.
Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. :no:
Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.
Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.
Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. :no:
EDIT: I meant to say "I am not saying this is likely" in my original post here
Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.
Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.
Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. :no:
EDIT: I meant to say "I am not saying this is likely" in my original post here
000
WTNT64 KNHC 161616
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...
DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INDICATE
THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO
40 MPH...65 KM/HR...MAKING THE DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.
DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE 2 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
[url]http://www.justin.tv/weatherchannel/[/url]
XL will be chugging for the gulf coast tonightQuote[url]http://www.justin.tv/weatherchannel/[/url]
000
WTNT33 KNHC 170854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL NOW A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
...1870 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BILL
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 44.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
IMO, NHC is writing Ana off too early, it still has a chance to regenerate by this weekend or later this week, they should have waited until then to make write the final advisory on Ana.The remnants of Ana will cross through Hispaniola, which has very high mountains that have a history of ripping up tropical cyclones. It could possibly regenerate after crossing the islands, but it won't be easy.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...
1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTCA43 TJSJ 180245 CCA
TCPSP3
BOLETIN...
HURACAN BILL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST LUNES 17 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
...BILL SE SE FORTALECE ES AHORA HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS...
A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BILL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.3 OESTE O
CERCA DE 865 MILLAS...1395 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES.
BILL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE EL MIERCOLES.
LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS
HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS
FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DE ESTE SISTEMA SE PRONOSTICA EN LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y BILL SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN DE MAYOR
INTENSIDAD DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA
30 MILLAS...45 KM DEL CENTRO...MIENTRAS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM.
LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 967 MB...28.56 PULGADAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1100 PM AST...
LOCALIZACION...15.0N 48.3W
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH
MOVIMIENTO PRESENTE...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 17 MPH
PRESION MINIMA...967 MB
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...
1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 49.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Ana looks to be coming back to life soon. :blink: Notice how the convection has exploded over the past 24 hours, the core of Ana isn't even over water right now, I don't think we should let our guard down on her yet. The fact that she got as far west into the Atlantic as she did says something.I've been hearing everywhere, even TWC that it's possible that my name wont be used anymore. It's "the storm formely known as 'Ana'" There is a possibility that Danny (the next name) will be named instead of me. But that's just my guess.
EDIT: If Ana comes back to life will she be "Ana" or the "D" name storm?
000
WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT33 KNHC 190236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 53.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT33 KNHC 190842
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009
...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...
740 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE BILL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 54.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
So where is Ana right now? :dunno: There is a lot of rain just off the Southeast Coast of Florida...but she hasn't made it this far yet, has she? :unsure:Ana has dissipated... that's the remnant low of Ana. It has a low chance of reforming into a tropical system again in the next 48 hours.
Yea NHC has stopped even mentioning the disturbed area. Think its dead for good now :P
000
WTNT33 KNHC 202035
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 211735
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BILL SUGGEST
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA SHOWS MORE RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE ISLAND.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...28.5N 66.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 212039
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...HURRICANE BILL A LITTLE WEAKER...COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH ON
SATURDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 640 MILES...1035 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105
MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN
ADVANCE OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.4N 66.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009
...BILL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 48.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EVEN THOUGH BILL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC is the latest discussion is mentioning they may issue tropical storm watches at the next advisory for parts of the Outer Banks. Wouldnt surprise me.
Look at how HORRIBLE the models have been. I dont trust them as far as I can spit
([url]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v247/mmcornick/gif.gif[/url])
Danny is not expected to become a hurricane, is it? :dunno:there is an upper level low if im not mistakened that will help push Danny to the north. No its not forecast to become a hurricane
It's interesting how two storms have made a major turn toward the north this year. Is there another "system" that's causing Danny to turn north? :unsure:
The final moments of Danny Boy
(sung in the tune of "Danny Boy")
Oh Danny boy, you fought you fought but didn't make it...
From top to bottom, you were disorganized
It's peak season but you are now extratropical.
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010247
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW
WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND ON THE EAST
COAST FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM..WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
Erika is barely a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph and is almost following Ana's footsteps. It's not looking good for Erika's chances of survival over the next five days as eluded by everyone in the previous posts. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jimena has made landfall, but the forecast track now indicates that its remnants won't reach the United States.
What in the world?!?! :blink: :blink: Why is Jimena going to make that big turn??? :wacko: Is there something "blocking" it? :dunno: This was never on the previous projected paths. :no:Actually it was supposed to turn left and sorta drift from the models i saw
What's with all these storms dying and then redeveloping? :wacko: If Erika redevelops, I woulddoubt it's going to be anything stronger than a TS. Maybe it'll even pull another Ana. :thinking:NHC doesn't give any chance for Erika's remnants to redevelop in the latest tropical outlook, so I'll be shocked if anything happens. Andy, El Niņo changes the wind patterns worldwide, and one impact is that it increases the vertical wind shear in the Atlantic. Thus, many storms that try to develop just get sheared apart and only have a chance to redevelop when they find areas of lighter wind shear. While we can't let our guard down this year, the next two years concern me far more as conditions should return to neutral or perhaps even shift completely over to La Niņa, which are times when wind shear is reduced in the Atlantic. While there are many factors that determine how active a hurricane season becomes, El Niņo and La Niņa play a significant role.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 072034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.5 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 24.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the Atlantic.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009
...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 26.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
...FRED STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 27.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 081434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
...FRED CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...555 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND FRED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.9N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 082031
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
...FRED ALMOST A HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND FRED IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.1N 29.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TS Flintstone has formed:[/quote]
You mean Fred Flintstone :bleh:ROLF!! :rofl2: :lol:
ROLF!! :rofl2: :lol:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 090243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009
...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009
...FRED INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 091442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009
...FRED BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...NO THREAT
TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.... A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRED IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT FRED IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.9N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Here's a quick update on the tropics: Tropical Depression #8 did form near the Cape Verde Islands yesterday, but it has quickly dissipated today. Thus, the Atlantic continues to be very inactive with only 8 tropical depressions, 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific, however, has been quite active with 17 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 050236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.
GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
GRACE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...41.2N 20.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT35 KNHC 062056
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009
...TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...
THE EIGHTH NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...
2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...965
KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRI AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.8N 54.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AND GENERALLY THE GFS IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH. MOST
PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED OR BE ENDING SATURDAY.
NO CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE EUROPEAN SPREADING
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 042104
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO IDA IN RAINFALL STATEMENT
...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA....
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.0N 82.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IDA MOVES OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Ida is a hurricane as of 1am honestly I think it should have been a Hurricane at 11Martin, because we're now back in standard time, the advisory was issued at 10 PM EST (0300 UTC). Normal advisories are always issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC; and UTC time never changes during the year. An update statement was released at 11:15 PM EST declaring that Ida had become a hurricane again, so NHC agreed with you.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 081758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.7N 86.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
Bleh my internal clock is set wrong :P But yea i meant they should have called it at the 10pm official update.Ida is a hurricane as of 1am honestly I think it should have been a Hurricane at 11Martin, because we're now back in standard time, the advisory was issued at 10 PM EST (0300 UTC). Normal advisories are always issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC; and UTC time never changes during the year. An update statement was released at 11:15 PM EST declaring that Ida had become a hurricane again, so NHC agreed with you.
I hope everyone in the Southeast is paying attention to Ida as its winds are up to 90 mph, and it may be a stronger storm than expected when it becomes extratropical near the coast. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and strong surf will be found next week from eastern Louisiana to western Florida. Be prepared for some watches to be issued in that region soon.
7 PM EST Update: Hurricane Ida has intensified further to sustained winds of 105 mph. There are no changes to the watches and warnings for the United States yet.STORM ALERT!! :fire: :sos:
10 PM EST Update: A hurricane warning has just been issued from Pascagoula, MS to Indian Pass, FL. Hurricane Ida still has winds of 105 mph.