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Author Topic: Hurricane Central 2009  (Read 54564 times)

Offline UC Davis Meteorologist

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Hurricane Central 2009
« on: May 01, 2009, 12:01:50 AM »
It's 12:00 AM EDT and as promised here's the Hurricane Season 2009 thread.


THIS IS THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE SEASON 2009 THREAD. This where you discuss about impending or landfall tropical systems both out in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.  Without any further ado here's the Pacific and Atlantic names that will be used throughout this hurricane season:

Atlantic Names for the 2009 Season

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda


E. Pacific Names for the 2009 Season

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

Well that is it....Hopefully people will contribute to this thread. :)
« Last Edit: May 01, 2009, 12:39:33 AM by Martin »
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2009, 12:39:58 AM »
Think its going to be a busy year?

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2009, 07:35:31 AM »
No.


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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2009, 09:46:30 AM »
It's impossible to tell if this year will be busy right now.  I just watch as everything develops.  By mid-July, I usually have a much better idea on looking ahead for the season.

Offline UC Davis Meteorologist

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2009, 03:59:53 PM »
Think its going to be a busy year?

Very interesting start to the thread, Martin. As for whether or not it will be a busy year, based on the Nino 3.4 region models, it shows that near netural to weak El Nino conditions may develop by mid-summer. If this is the case, then it means, we will start out with a near normal hurricane season but by the peak of the hurricane season, we will see a reduction in the number of hurricanesss out in the Atlantic. Overall, I dont think this hurricane season will be that active at all.
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Offline Anistorm

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2009, 04:10:56 PM »
I know this season is going to be pretty interesting, besides my name being the first one on the list. Right when a tropical storm makes landfall, then I will get really really hooked on tracking it.
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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2009, 11:38:48 PM »
I think its going to be a normal year. Interesting part will be if any of those impact the coast. My area is due for a storm. I cant say im wishing for one but I wouldn't be disappointed if we got a weak storm :P

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2009, 04:31:52 PM »

Offline Mike M

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2009, 04:59:48 PM »
Hurricane Season is now underway in the Eastern Pacific.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2009, 06:34:00 PM »
From 12Z EURO

http://i41.tinypic.com/2w7oi1k.jpg


TWC has been talking about a possible subtropical storm forming next week off the SE coast, it wouldn't surprise me, the first storm has been forming during the past 2 or 3 Mays in a row.


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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2009, 07:37:44 PM »
From 12Z EURO

http://i41.tinypic.com/2w7oi1k.jpg


TWC has been talking about a possible subtropical storm forming next week off the SE coast, it wouldn't surprise me, the first storm has been forming during the past 2 or 3 Mays in a row.

There's only been 18 reported tropical storms during the month of May since 1851, and this number includes subtropical storms after 1967.  I'd be really surprised if something happens later this month, but it has happened before in history.

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2009, 08:18:44 PM »
Something in my gut tells me this may be a hum-dinger of a Hurricane Season....2008 felt a lot like 2004 to me...lets just hope 2009 isn't the "new" 2005  :hmm:

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2009, 08:25:07 PM »
Breaking news from the NHC:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

"The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 10 m [33 ft]) is the determining factor in the scale. The historical examples (one for the U.S. Gulf Coast and one for the U.S. Atlantic Coast) provided in each of the categories correspond with the intensity of the hurricane at the time of landfall in the location experiencing the strongest winds, which does not necessarily correspond with the peak intensity reached by the system during its lifetime. The scale does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. These wind-caused impacts are to apply to the worst winds reaching the coast and the damage would be less elsewhere. It should also be noted that the general wind-caused damage descriptions are to some degree dependent upon the local building codes in effect and how well and how long they have been enforced. For example, recently enacted building codes in Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina are likely to somewhat reduce the damage to newer structures from that described below. However, for a long time to come, the majority of the building stock in existence on the coast will not have been built to higher code. Hurricane wind damage is also dependent upon such other factors as duration of high winds, change of wind direction, amount of accompanying rainfall, and age of structures.

Earlier versions of this scale - known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale - incorporated central pressure and storm surge as components of the categories. The central pressure was utilized during the 1970s and 1980s as a proxy for the winds as accurate wind speed intensity measurements from aircraft reconnaissance were not routinely available for hurricanes until 1990. Storm surge was also quantified by category in the earliest published versions of the scale dating back to 1972. However, hurricane size (extent of hurricane force winds), local bathymetry (depth of near-shore waters), and topographic forcing can also be important in forecasting storm surge. Moreover, other aspects of hurricanes - such as the system's forward speed and angle to the coast - also impact the storm surge that is produced. For example, the very large Hurricane Ike (with hurricane force winds extending as much as 125 mi from the center) in 2008 made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 hurricane and had peak storm surge values of 15-20 ft. In contrast, tiny Hurricane Charley (with hurricane force winds extending at most 25 mi from the center) struck Florida in 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane and produced a peak storm surge of only 6-7 ft. These storm surge values were substantially outside of the ranges suggested in the original scale. Thus to help reduce public confusion about the impacts associated with the various hurricane categories as well as to provide a more scientifically defensible scale, the storm surge ranges, flooding impact and central pressure statements are being removed from the scale and only peak winds are employed in this revised version - the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale."

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2009, 10:32:04 AM »
Here's an update on possible Subtropical Storm Ana. Below are GFS models that show the low, I drew a cone for the track it will be taking from the different computer model runs. The 06z run tries to pull a TS Fay on the SE.

GFS 00z Run


GFS 06z Run


GFS 12z Run


GFS 18z Run


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Offline UC Davis Meteorologist

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Re: Hurricane Central 2009
« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2009, 11:35:40 AM »
Im going to say there's low probability of the low forming into subtropical Ana b/c as of now the low is encountering lots of sheer.  However, a chance is still something we should watch over in the next couple of days.
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