Hurricane Central 2009

[phw115wvwx]

Fred has become the second hurricane of the Atlantic season.  Here's the 11 PM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FRED IS
NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.6N 30.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Mike M]

5AM advisory - storm continues to intensify with 105 mph winds, but is expected to weaken tomorrow.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FRED IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND FRED COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.2N 31.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

[phw115wvwx]

Hurricane Fred has reached Category 3 intensity with sustained winds of 120 mph.  Here's the 11 AM EDT advisory from NHC on the Atlantic's second major hurricane of the season:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 091442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

...FRED BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...NO THREAT
TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR....  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FRED IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME
FLUCTATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT FRED IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.9N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[phw115wvwx]

Here's a quick update on the tropics:  Tropical Depression #8 did form near the Cape Verde Islands yesterday, but it has quickly dissipated today.  Thus, the Atlantic continues to be very inactive with only 8 tropical depressions, 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.  The Eastern Pacific, however, has been quite active with 17 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

[Anistorm]

Here's a quick update on the tropics:  Tropical Depression #8 did form near the Cape Verde Islands yesterday, but it has quickly dissipated today.  Thus, the Atlantic continues to be very inactive with only 8 tropical depressions, 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.  The Eastern Pacific, however, has been quite active with 17 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Yeah, I believe at the Eastern Pacific we have TS Nora active right now.

[Anistorm]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRACE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

GRACE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...41.2N 20.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

We have another TS in the Atlantic, my friends. Grace is the name. It's located up north, so it is not capable of making landfall as of now.

[phw115wvwx]

I'm surprised this system even got named.  It's expected to be absorbed by an extratropical low within 36 hours, so I don't expect to hear much about Tropical Storm Grace.

[toxictwister00]

I'm surprised too, this hurricane season ended after Fred for me.

[TWCToday]

Season ended after Bill for me

[phw115wvwx]

Grace is gone, but we have a new tropical storm that is also expected to be short-lived.  Meet Tropical Storm Henri:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 062056
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...
THE EIGHTH NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.  AT 500 PM AST...
2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...965
KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HENRI AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  HENRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.8N 54.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Anistorm]

hai Henri 

(btw pronounciation: ON-ree) 

[phw115wvwx]

Just as anticipated, Tropical Storm Henri didn't last long as it dissipated earlier today.  The tropics are quiet once again.

[TWCToday]

Bye bye pathetic little Henri!

[phw115wvwx]

Although the Atlantic has been completely quiet, the Eastern Pacific continues to be very active.  El Niño years usually result in this situation.  Next year could be dangerous in the Atlantic when conditions shift back to neutral or even head towards La Niña.  Last night, Hurricane Rick set an impressive intensity mark for the Eastern Pacific.  Rick poses a threat to western Mexico in several days, but it won't nearly be as strong as what it is now.  Here's what the advisory from 11 PM EDT last night on Rick said:

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

[toxictwister00]

Wow, the 18z run of the GFS is working it's magic to create a fantasy tropical system making landfall in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The forecast discussion for Atlanta mentions the disagreements between the GFS and the Euro on this. It reminds me of the November storms we have had form like Hurricane Paloma in 2008 and Hurricane Kate in 1985, if not mistaken did make landfall in the Eastern Gulf.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AND GENERALLY THE GFS IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH. MOST
PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED OR BE ENDING SATURDAY.

NO CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE EUROPEAN SPREADING
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.