Hurricane Central 2009

[TWCToday]

Erika has decided to commit suicide. Its center now moved further south. Forecast moves it over many islands w some shear. Perhaps there is some hope if it can make it through the next few days. Otherwise.... its another Ana

[Anistorm]

Yeah, I saw that in the Carribean it has so much shear that it would kill a storm like that. It's very similar to what my storm had to go through.

[toxictwister00]

If Erika does make it, this is what the forecast discussion says for my area next week.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S BACK MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THAT RETURNING AND DEEPENING TROPICAL MOISTURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEARING FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE WHAT IMPACT ERIKA WILL HAVE ON GEORGIA...BUT THAT LOOKS
TO BE THURSDAY OR BEYOND. COULD SPELL A WETTER PERIOD LATE NEXT
WEEK.

[TWCToday]

If it can hang on through the weekend it may indeed have a sliver of hope. If it can move a little but north of all those islands, it would have a much better chance

[phw115wvwx]

Erika is barely a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph and is almost following Ana's footsteps.  It's not looking good for Erika's chances of survival over the next five days as eluded by everyone in the previous posts.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Jimena has made landfall, but the forecast track now indicates that its remnants won't reach the United States.

[Anistorm]

Erika is barely a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph and is almost following Ana's footsteps.  It's not looking good for Erika's chances of survival over the next five days as eluded by everyone in the previous posts.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Jimena has made landfall, but the forecast track now indicates that its remnants won't reach the United States.

I was REALLY hoping for some Jimena rain to come to my area, but unfortunately that won't happen. 

[WeatherWitness]

What in the world?!?! Why is Jimena going to make that big turn??? Is there something "blocking" it? This was never on the previous projected paths.

[TWCToday]

What in the world?!?! Why is Jimena going to make that big turn??? Is there something "blocking" it? This was never on the previous projected paths.

Actually it was supposed to turn left and sorta drift from the models i saw

[TWCToday]

Erika may have some life left in the poor girl. Models showing a more northern trend in the track. Recon this morning founds some stronger winds too.  NHC may bump the winds a little for the 8am advisory

[Localonthe8s]

Erika can't reform into a TS again?

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Erika still has sustained winds of 40 mph as of the 11 AM EDT advisory, but it's becoming greatly disorganized.  NHC is predicting Erika to dissipate over the next few days due to strong wind shear and the nearby islands.  Even if Erika makes it north of the islands, I don't see this system regenerating at all.

[TWCToday]

The NHC has posted the last advisory on Erika. I we may have seen the last of this system. It may be tough but I think there might be a slight chance to reform. Nearly all the models insists it

[Localonthe8s]

heh my area is right on the track

[WeatherWitness]

What's with all these storms dying and then redeveloping? If Erika redevelops, I  woulddoubt it's going to be anything stronger than a TS. Maybe it'll even pull another Ana.

[phw115wvwx]

What's with all these storms dying and then redeveloping? If Erika redevelops, I  woulddoubt it's going to be anything stronger than a TS. Maybe it'll even pull another Ana.

NHC doesn't give any chance for Erika's remnants to redevelop in the latest tropical outlook, so I'll be shocked if anything happens.  Andy, El Niño changes the wind patterns worldwide, and one impact is that it increases the vertical wind shear in the Atlantic.  Thus, many storms that try to develop just get sheared apart and only have a chance to redevelop when they find areas of lighter wind shear.  While we can't let our guard down this year, the next two years concern me far more as conditions should return to neutral or perhaps even shift completely over to La Niña, which are times when wind shear is reduced in the Atlantic.  While there are many factors that determine how active a hurricane season becomes, El Niño and La Niña play a significant role.