Hurricane Central 2009

[Mike M]

It looks like Danny may make it even closer to the coast than Bill, possibly bringing some rain bands and tropical storm force winds to my area if the forecast track holds true. Definitely something to keep an eye on...

[TWCToday]

Looks like we may very well have Erika soon! The Atlantic is roaring to life!! http://bit.ly/10QLUo

I dont get how the NHC is calling Dannys movement right now NW. Its almost due west at the moment. I think we are very much clueless about this track. This is a tricky track.

[TWCToday]

NHC is the latest discussion is mentioning they may issue tropical storm watches at the next advisory for parts of the Outer Banks. Wouldnt surprise me.

Look at how HORRIBLE the models have been. I dont trust them as far as I can spit

[Anistorm]

NHC is the latest discussion is mentioning they may issue tropical storm watches at the next advisory for parts of the Outer Banks. Wouldnt surprise me.

Look at how HORRIBLE the models have been. I dont trust them as far as I can spit

That IS horrible. 

[phw115wvwx]

A tropical storm watch has just been issued between Duck, NC and Cape Lookout, NC.  Tracking Danny's movement has been difficult as the center of circulation kept reforming itself over the past 24 hours, which is why we see all the strange wobbling.  Unfortunately, the kind of spread that you see in the computer models shown in the last post is actually pretty decent and could be much worse.  It's just not easy to predict tropical cyclones, so that's why I say everyone along the East Coast should keep a close eye on Danny.

[WeatherWitness]

Danny is not expected to become a hurricane, is it?

It's interesting how two storms have made a major turn toward the north this year. Is there another "system" that's causing Danny to turn north?

[TWCToday]

Danny is not expected to become a hurricane, is it?

It's interesting how two storms have made a major turn toward the north this year. Is there another "system" that's causing Danny to turn north?

there is an upper level low if im not mistakened that will help push Danny to the north. No its not forecast to become a hurricane

[TWCToday]

And the saga continues... I swear its like watching a soap opera. The low level circulation continues to run away from the convection. The next 12hrs is really the only chance for this system to get its act together. So far I dont see that happening.

[phw115wvwx]

As most of you probably know, an extratropical low absorbed Tropical Storm Danny this morning.  NHC discontinued their advisories on Danny, which means that the Atlantic is quiet once again.  Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific is busy with Hurricane Jimena and Tropical Storm Kevin.

[WeatherWitness]

Someone at TWC must've been in a good mood today.

The final moments of Danny Boy
(sung in the tune of "Danny Boy")

Oh Danny boy, you fought you fought but didn't make it...

From top to bottom, you were disorganized

It's peak season but you are now extratropical.

'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.

[WeatherWitness]

I can't believe Hurricane Jimena is heading north straight for Mexico and the US! Here's the projected path and latest advisory on Jimena.

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 010247
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING NORTHWEST...NEW
WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND ON THE EAST
COAST FROM MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM..WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.4N 109.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

[TWCToday]

Tropical Storm Erika has formed!

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Erika will need to be watched as its track is projected to be further south than what Bill and Danny took.  Winds remain at 50 mph as of 8 PM EDT, but it's forecasted to intensify.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Jimena in the Eastern Pacific has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but still has winds of 120 mph.  It will make landfall tomorrow night over the Baja California Penninsula, and the remnants of Jimena will likely impact southern California and southern Arizona early next week.

[TWCToday]

Latest on Erika

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Erika is fighting some moderate wind shear.  The sustained winds have dropped to 45 mph as of the 8 AM EDT advisory.  Erika's track has shifted southward, so parts of the Leeward Islands are now under tropical storm warnings.  Meanwhile, Hurricane Jimena is currently impacting the Baja California Peninsula.  Jimena's sustained winds are down to 105 mph, but it'll still be a hurricane when it makes a direct landfall tonight.