Hurricane Central 2009

[Al]

Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.

Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.

Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. 

Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.

EDIT: I meant to say "I am not saying this is likely" in my original post here

Intellicast is also calling TD4 Claudette...so I think it's safe to say we now have Claudette...i guess the advisory hasn't been released.

[toxictwister00]

Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.

Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.

Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. 

Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.

EDIT: I meant to say "I am not saying this is likely" in my original post here

I went onto the NHC's website a moment ago and they said they are waiting on Hurricane Hunters to finish investigatiing on whether it will be offically classified as "Claudette" when it is then they will upgrade it to TS Claudette.

EDIT: TD #4 or Claudete is looking good on Satellite. 

[phw115wvwx]

NHC issued an update statement saying that Tropical Depression #4 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette.  We've now had three tropical storms develop just in the past 32 hours!   Here's the update statement:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 161616
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INDICATE
THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO
40 MPH...65 KM/HR...MAKING THE DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.
DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE 2 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[WeatherWitness]

Wow! Things are getting really active now in the tropics. I am amazed that something off the coast of Florida has developed into T.S. Claudette...I hope people are ready!

[Zach]

Here's the best shot I could get of Claudette, although it's not the best.

[Stephen]

I'm streaming the 4000 emulator for my area tonight as Claudette moves in. If you'd like to check it out, go to this link in Windows Media Player:

mms://98.162.163.13:1187

[WeatherWitness]

It looks like Ana has been downgraded to a TD once again. I wonder if it will re-strengthen.

[TWCToday]

XL will be chugging for the gulf coast tonight

http://www.justin.tv/weatherchannel/

[WeatherWitness]

XL will be chugging for the gulf coast tonight

http://www.justin.tv/weatherchannel/

The XL has been real confusing today. The LDL and Local Forecast showed information for Pensacola, the Daypart and Forecast Map showed information for Norfolk, VA and the 7-Day showed forecast data for Orlando.

Now the 7-Day doesn't have a city or temps showing...just sky conditions and icons.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Bill Offically a Hurricane 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 170854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...BILL NOW A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
...1870 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BILL
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 44.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[phw115wvwx]

Claudette is long gone as its remnants spin out over the Southeast after making landfall in northwest Florida last night.  NHC just declared that Ana has also dissipated as reconnaissance aircraft could no longer find a closed circulation.  Thus, NHC has issued the last advisory on Ana as of 5 PM EDT. 

Hurricane Bill continues to become more organized and currently has sustained winds of 90 mph with a minimum pressure of 969 mb.  Bill is expected to become a major hurricane in one to two days.  The track of Bill still has high uncertainty, but most models are saying that it will turn northward and miss most of the Southeast.  It's still too early to tell if it will have any impact to the rest of the East Coast.

[toxictwister00]

IMO, NHC is writing Ana off too early, it still has a chance to regenerate by this weekend or later this week, they should have waited until then to make write the final advisory on Ana.

[phw115wvwx]

IMO, NHC is writing Ana off too early, it still has a chance to regenerate by this weekend or later this week, they should have waited until then to make write the final advisory on Ana.

The remnants of Ana will cross through Hispaniola, which has very high mountains that have a history of ripping up tropical cyclones.  It could possibly regenerate after crossing the islands, but it won't be easy.

[WeatherWitness]

Does anyone know about Hurricane Bill making a direct hit on Bermuda? According to the map below, it looks like Bill will hit Bermuda (which is the green dot, right?). However, another source says it will go east of Bermuda. I guess it might be a little too early to tell.

[Al]

the forecast tracks keep taking it slightly more eastward upon every update, so at this point we can only wait, watch, and prepare.