Hurricane Central 2009

[WeatherWitness]

I had no faith in this thing yesterday becoming anything!

I think it kind of came as surprise to a lot of people. Tropical systems usually don't redevelop like that (I don't think).

[toxictwister00]

The disturbance in the GOM is now Invest 91L, so it still poses a low threat of developing, maybe it will pull a Hurricane Humberto and rapidly intensify? It looks like a circlation is trying to develop if you ask me.

[WeatherWitness]

The disturbance in the GOM is now Invest 91L, so it still poses a low threat of developing, maybe it will pull a Hurricane Humberto and rapidly intensify? It looks like a circlation is trying to develop if you ask me.

The circulation actually looks like it wants to develop into something to my eyes too. I just don't know if it will move far enough out into the water to strengthen, but I'm not a hurricane expect. I know TWC has mentioned it briefly, but do any other sources show that it will develop into T.S. Claudette?

[phw115wvwx]

NHC has now given the tropical wave off the FL coast a high potential (>50%) of becoming a tropical depression later today.  It looks like someone finally flipped the activity switch on for the Atlantic.

[TWCToday]

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Next advisory will show Bill strengthen to 45 mph!

[phw115wvwx]

It's becoming really active in the Atlantic!  At this hour, Tropical Storm Ana is still at 40 mph with a pressure of 1005 mb, and Tropical Storm Bill has strengthened to 45 mph with a pressure of 1002 mb.  Now, Tropical Depression #4 has formed from the tropical wave off the FL coast, and here's its 5 AM EDT advisory from NHC:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NEW DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA NEAR THE PATH
OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[TWCToday]

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued

[toxictwister00]

I knew that disturbance in the GOM would develop, it was looking very healthy last night, I even saw the low level circulation beginning to develop.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Update....Ana remains the same in the next advisory, Bill Intensifies to 60 mph. Tropical Depression 4 remains the same. Guillermo remains the same.

[wxntrafficfan]

Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am not saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.

[toxictwister00]

Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.

Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.

Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. 

[wxntrafficfan]

Well, it is now being discussed that Bill could miss the US completely due to a jet stream/trough that may take the Atlantic high pressure and thus, Bill, further out to sea. But, there is still one scary scenario that has remained within the realm of possibility all week, and still is. In short, another 1938 set-up. This jet stream could be in the perfect spot to funnel Bill right up towards NYC, a situation that is now overdue. I am saying this is likely, as it is still over a week out, but it certainly can't be ruled out at this point.

Your right Aaron, it's possible and it's a scary thought not only because of the population, but because of how many people I know won't be prepared if that did happen with Bill.

Also I was on wunderground's website and TD#4 looks like it's trying to rebuild convection on the NW side, I wanna know why this hasn't been classified as "Claudette" and why Ana hasn't been downgraded. It looks no more like a TS than TD #4 looks like a TD. 

Well, TWC is now calling it Claudette, and I see "Claudette" on the NHC page for the storm, but I can't find any advisories classifying it as a TS.

EDIT: I meant to say "I am not saying this is likely" in my original post here

[wxmediafan]

Very interesting. I have been extremely busy this past week, and rarely have had time for TWC (is that a good thing? )  I knew the tropics were getting hot, but I had no idea they were this active   This is exciting!

[Al]

IDK, I think Ana is starting to pull her act together:




but there are only 9 Frames, so I can't exactly tell...but it looks like convection is starting to fire up in the last few frames on both satellite images.

now as for bill, he looks pretty impressive:



this storm could be interesting...track wise.