Hurricane Central 2009

[toxictwister00]

Double Whammy?

I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

   DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  11/1745 UTC   14.4N     30.1W       T1.5/2.0         02L 
  11/1145 UTC   14.5N     29.2W       T2.0/2.0         02L 

Analysis: No change in the wind speed...since the DVORAK # is still the same. 2345 (11:45 PM for the next DVORAK comes out)

Current Time: 9:41 PM UTC! 2 more hours!

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Double Whammy?

I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.

GFS tends to overexaggerate! As Patrick says to me, those models are designed for mid-latutide weather. Also the GFS model beyond 7 days suck. Dont rely on that!

[toxictwister00]

Double Whammy?

I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.

GFS tends to overexaggerate! As Patrick says to me, those models are designed for mid-latutide weather. Also the GFS model beyond 7 days suck. Dont rely on that!

That's true, but it's not overexaggerating that much, other models are showing similar solutions of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the EC sometime around the 23rd -26th of this month and they have been consistent in showing that the past few days, it's the tropical disturbance leaving the African coast as we speak that's being picked on models as being a significant hurricane once it gets near the Caribbean. I don't even believe TD 2 will become Ana, I think the wave leaving Africa now has a better chance of being named Ana.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Double Whammy?

I'm think the first storm is Ana and the one that follows behind is Bill coming near the DR/Haiti.

GFS tends to overexaggerate! As Patrick says to me, those models are designed for mid-latutide weather. Also the GFS model beyond 7 days suck. Dont rely on that!

That's true, but it's not overexaggerating that much, other models are showing similar solutions of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the EC sometime around the 23rd -26th of this month and they have been consistent in showing that the past few days, it's the tropical disturbance leaving the African coast as we speak that's being picked on models as being a significant hurricane once it gets near the Caribbean. I don't even believe TD 2 will become Ana, I think the wave leaving Africa now has a better chance of being named Ana.

Yes but I would say wait for another day or so before you believe it. It's still to early. This system can go into shear.  You dont really know.

[WeatherWitness]

Let's hope our first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not a deadly Cat 5.

Even though SA may be cool to see again, I don't think we want a bad hurricane.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

 11/2345 UTC   14.0N     30.8W       T1.5/2.0         02L 

No Change in the wind....Next Update 5:45 AM...

Current UTC Time: 1:10 AM. 

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Depression Felicia in the Eastern Pacific is dissipating as it treks over Hawaii, so impacts on that state should not be bad.  Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #2 in the Atlantic is slowly getting better organized and could become a tropical storm tomorrow as said here in the 11 PM EDT advisory:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 120252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

[Localonthe8s]

I think it's about time we've seen some action.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

According to the DVORAK readings, tropical storm ANA has formed....Advisory will come out in 2 hours...let's see how they will declare this

12/1145 UTC   14.3N     33.5W       T2.5/2.5         02L 

[phw115wvwx]

According to the DVORAK readings, tropical storm ANA has formed....Advisory will come out in 2 hours...let's see how they will declare this

12/1145 UTC   14.3N     33.5W       T2.5/2.5         02L 

Rod, this is why you can't go by those readings alone:  The 11 AM EDT advisory still keeps Tropical Depression #2 at 35 mph as it tries to get organized against shear.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

According to the DVORAK readings, tropical storm ANA has formed....Advisory will come out in 2 hours...let's see how they will declare this

12/1145 UTC   14.3N     33.5W       T2.5/2.5         02L 

Rod, this is why you can't go by those readings alone:  The 11 AM EDT advisory still keeps Tropical Depression #2 at 35 mph as it tries to get organized against shear.

Yes...the also analyze the QUIKSCAT....see they mentioned it in the discussion....

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING
THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...
MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING
FROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.

35 knots = 40 mph

[TWCToday]

Think they are just playing it safe. I expect Ana by the end of the day. Still having fun watching NCEP though. http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_ten_all.htm

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Ana is def. likely by the next update...it has even been declared on the NHC products....

AL, 02, 2009081218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 344W, 35, 1005, TS,

[gt1racerlHDl]

Here's the probabilities

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0209T_sm2+gif/143214P_sm.gif