Hurricane Central 2009

[TWCToday]

I really think 99L will be our first named system of the Atlantic. Conditions look very favorable.

[toxictwister00]

This invest does have potential to at least become a tropical depression, looking at it on satellite it looks like one already, but there is still a lot of wind shear out there. If it does turn into Ana and manages to threaten the US, it will definately be one to keep closely watching.

[Localonthe8s]

uhoh Ana will be in for some excitement

[Anistorm]

So a hurricane/tropical storm can form a single tropical "wave"? I'm a little lost as to how a wave can cause such a big system.

I believe this has happened once before (correct me if I am wrong). in 2003 there was a wave in the Gulf of Mexico, with waters so warm, it gathered strength to form into Tropical Storm Erika. It had skipped depression status...which surprised me alot.

uhoh Ana will be in for some excitement

Of course!

[toxictwister00]

The GFS has 3 different tracks as to where potential Ana could go anywhere from a Texas/Mexico strike to a SE coast hugger. The 18z run doesn't show anything.

00z run - Texas/Mexico Strike
06z run - SE Coast or OTS (Out To Sea path)
12z run - South/Central Florida/GOM Strike

[TWCToday]

Most of the models want to get this up to a depression at least

[toxictwister00]

I just wanted everyone to know that the tropical disturbance west of the Cape Verdes still has a medium chance (30 -50%) of developing into at least Tropical Depression status over the next couple of days as conditions remain favorable for development. Also there is another tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands that has a low chance (30% <) of developing over the next couple of days according to the NHC.

Link here --> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The 00z, 06z, 12z of the GFS are in agreement of a East Coast Hurricane Strike around August 24th, the 18z run shows a hurricane but recurves it out to sea as it comes close to the EC.

00z run - NY/Delmarva stirke
06z run - Carolinas Strike (East Coast of Florida and SE Georgia would be affected by the western rainbands from this tropical storm)
12z run - NY/Delmarva strike (agreeing with the 00z run)
18z run - Out to Sea solution

These are major changes from yesterday when all 4 runs of the GFS were all over the place with where a strike could occur, just to remind you the 18z run showed no storm at all yesterday! The GFS usually still likes to play fantasy games this far out once we get within 5 days or less or this date, we should know more clearly if there is a tropical threat out there. IMO, I would keep guard of the tropics from August 16th -31st. I suspect activity will really begin to ramp up.

[TWCToday]

Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising

[toxictwister00]

Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising

That may be the system being picked up by the GFS in today's runs.

[TWCToday]

Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising

That may be the system being picked up by the GFS in today's runs.

I was thinking that too!

[TWCToday]

What I find so funny is that the models are showing a track almost like Hurricane Belle which occurred 33 years ago today. Not that I believe these models for a second but still kinda funny

[TWCToday]

Tropical Depression 2 has formed
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  11/1145 UTC   14.5N     29.2W       T2.0/2.0         02L 
  11/0545 UTC   14.4N     27.7W       T2.0/2.0         99L 
  10/2345 UTC   14.1N     26.7W       T1.0/1.5         99L 
  10/1745 UTC   14.4N     25.8W       T1.0/1.5         99L 
  10/1145 UTC   14.3N     24.5W       T1.5/1.5         99L 
  10/0545 UTC   14.2N     23.9W       T1.5/1.5         99L 
  09/2345 UTC   14.2N     22.9W       T1.5/1.5         99L 
  09/1745 UTC   14.2N     22.4W       T1.5/1.5         99L 
  09/1330 UTC   14.2N     21.8W       T1.5/1.5         99L 

DVORAK Techinque showed this system remaining stationary/NOT weakening until 1145 UTC when it increased to 2.0! The DVORAK Estimate put's it at 2.0 which is enough to put this into a tropical depression!

BTW...02 L is just tropical depression 2 which is low. (02 L)

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

4 hours away until the DVORAK readings come out!

[Mike M]

Tropical Depression Two 11AM advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES...560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY
OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 29.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.