Hurricane Central 2009

[ruhgster]

Also the GFS is tracking the northern portions of Felicia over southern Hawaii next Monday/Tuesday.  But remember this is just one solution of a variety of models that are most likely not right, especially when talking that far out.

[ruhgster]

Felicia is expected to become a major hurricane (> cat 3) today.  However, it appears if Felicia does hit Hawaii, it will be as a Tropical Storm, it looks like it will encounter some cooler waters before then.

[phw115wvwx]

Hurricane Felicia just reached Category 3 strength as of the 11 AM EDT advisory with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.  We'll have to see how close it gets to Hawaii over the next five days.  The Atlantic is still dead quiet now that the tropical wave I mentioned earlier has already fizzled out.

[Localonthe8s]

Andrew started out as a major category near the end of August in 1992, so I wouldn't be surprised if something similar to that happened.

[ruhgster]

Felicia is now a major cat 4 hurricane, with weakening expected today as it encounters cooler waters and shear.  It now looks like Hawaii may expect at worst a weak tropical storm, while one model actually indicates it could dissipate before reaching the islands.  Enrique is expected to weaken over the next couple days.  All is quiet in the Atlantic still.

[WeatherWitness]

Is it possible to not have a single named-storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season? Since we've had no named storms yet, this comes to mind, although I am no where near guaranteeing anything.

[toxictwister00]

Is it possible to not have a single named-storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season? Since we've had no named storms yet, this comes to mind, although I am no where near guaranteeing anything.

I'm sure we'll have at least 1 storm, whether we'll have any hit the US, IDK. For those who don't know, this is the latest start to Hurricane Season since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew formed in late August.

[TWCToday]

Andrew is a good example of this. Even though its been a slow season is no reason to let our guard down

[toxictwister00]

Invest 99L looks very organized right now.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Zach]

I'm glad to see that this is a very calm season, but coming up this Thursday will be the Five-year anniversery that I had to evacuate from Charley; then it decided to make landfall elsewhere.

[Stephen]

I'm glad to see that this is a very calm season, but coming up this Thursday will be the One-year anniversery that I had to evacuate from Charley; then it decided to make landfall elsewhere.

One year anniversary?  You mean five year, right? Charley was in 2004.

[Zach]

Oops.

I guess I should try not posting one minute after waking up.

[phw115wvwx]

Is it possible to not have a single named-storm in the Atlantic during hurricane season? Since we've had no named storms yet, this comes to mind, although I am no where near guaranteeing anything.

There has always been at least one tropical storm reported in the Atlantic based on all records kept since 1851.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for most of Hawaii due to Felicia, which has weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph but is only 770 miles east of Honolulu.  I'll certainly keep my eyes on that situation and the developing tropical wave that has emerged in the Atlantic.

[Localonthe8s]

So a hurricane/tropical storm can form a single tropical "wave"? I'm a little lost as to how a wave can cause such a big system.

[phw115wvwx]

So a hurricane/tropical storm can form a single tropical "wave"? I'm a little lost as to how a wave can cause such a big system.

A tropical wave is simply a cluster of thunderstorms around one broad area of low pressure.  If conditions are just right with warm water and low wind shear, that area of low pressure can strengthen to allow more thunderstorms to fire.  If the whole system is able to develop a closed circulation and have high enough winds, the tropical wave will be organized enough to become a tropical depression.  There's more complexity behind what I said naturally, but that's the basic idea.