Hurricane Central 2009

[phw115wvwx]

It may be November, but that doesn't mean the hurricane season is over.  Say hello to Tropical Storm Ida in the western Caribbean with sustained winds of 60 mph.  Ida will make landfall in Nicaragua tonight and could track northward toward the Gulf of Mexico if it survives:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042104
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO IDA IN RAINFALL STATEMENT

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.0N 82.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[TWCToday]

Reminds me a little of TS Arthur in 08

[TWCToday]

ahahahaha
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009110418-ida11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



  Silly GFDL

[Mike M]

Ida now a hurricane and moving inland...

HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST 
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.  WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. 

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

[phw115wvwx]

Ida has weakened to a tropical depression as it treks through Nicaragua, but it's forecasted to reemerge back over the Caribbean Sea by Saturday where it can regain some intensity.  If this forecast verifies, the southern United States will need to be on alert.  Here's the 10 PM EST advisory on Ida:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IDA MOVES OVER LAND.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.  MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[TWCToday]

AFTER IDA ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO....THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE FORMER...SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF IDA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE RECALLED HOWEVER THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...AS WAS THE CASE WITH TROPICAL STORMS DANNY...ERIKA...AND HENRI OF THIS YEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Depression Ida has reemerged over the Caribbean Sea a little faster than expected, so restrengthening is likely during this weekend.  It's possible that Ida could become extratropical as it reaches the southern United States due to increased wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico.  Here's the 4 PM EST advisory:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY. 

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[phw115wvwx]

Ida is once again a tropical storm and could regain hurricane status later today.  Winds have increased to 70 mph, and I think all of you need to pay more attention to this storm because parts of the Southeast are going to be affected by it regardless of whether it makes direct landfall or not:

[Anistorm]

This is much of a shock to me. I expected Ida to stay as a storm and become extratropical but the forecasts changed dramatically. My southeastern TWCTers, please stay safe out there, as Patrick said, regardless if it makes a direct landfall or not, be careful!

[WeatherWitness]

Wow...I never thought Ida would be doing something like this. How ironic that the tropics begin stirring up when less than a month remains in the Hurricane Season.

[toxictwister00]

1pm Tropical Update (Almost a Cat 1 hurricane again!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbQ6nfl2HfM

[TWCToday]

Ida is a hurricane as of 1am honestly I think it should have been a Hurricane at 11

[phw115wvwx]

Ida is a hurricane as of 1am honestly I think it should have been a Hurricane at 11

Martin, because we're now back in standard time, the advisory was issued at 10 PM EST (0300 UTC).  Normal advisories are always issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC; and UTC time never changes during the year.  An update statement was released at 11:15 PM EST declaring that Ida had become a hurricane again, so NHC agreed with you.

I hope everyone in the Southeast is paying attention to Ida as its winds are up to 90 mph, and it may be a stronger storm than expected when it becomes extratropical near the coast.  Gusty winds, heavy rain, and strong surf will be found next week from eastern Louisiana to western Florida.  Be prepared for some watches to be issued in that region soon.

[toxictwister00]

I'm having a hard time believing Ida is just gonna get pushed back to the south like that imo , the stronger she gets, the faster she moves, and also the stronger the NHC keeps it's strength before going extra tropical. I could be wrong, but I think Dr. Steve Lyons said that if it got as strong as it is now or stronger, it could fight against most of that wind shear and still make landfall in FL.  I'm not too sure about that, but I think that's what he said. I do know he said it will change the track for landfall along the FL panhandle if it went faster than expected and got towards the panhandle ahead of that cold front.

EDIT: Eventhough Wunderground agrees w/ NHC, I think this track is more reasonable. 

[phw115wvwx]

A hurricane watch has been issued from Grand Isle, LA to Mexico Beach, FL.  Ida is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph.  The 1 PM EST advisory is given below:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.  THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.  ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  IDA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.7N 86.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS