Hurricane Central 2009

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Wow what a diff. a few hours makes. Eariler this afternoon, the convection was all fired up around the center of the storm. Now, it has completly dissapered. This maybe because the low level inflow is to the north which is in a region of drier and stable air.  The south side of tropical depression 2 is moisture feeding into the wave from the Cape Verdes. As a result, the intensity remains the same...30 knots..(35 mph). T.D. 2 can still be able to regain those thunderstorms in it's center as it's in a favorable enviornment. Unless, the sheer weakens and the low level inflow is in a moist region, I do NOT see this system further developing.

BTW...The Wave in the Cape Verdes has better chance of being Ana!

[gt1racerlHDl]

i got the map if you want to see the peak 

[Mike M]

TD 2 is weakening. As of the 11AM advisory, winds are back down to 30 mph, and the pressure rose to 1008 MB.

Meanwhile, here is the 8AM ET outlook for the second tropical wave:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

[Anistorm]

They just increased the chances from medium to high on this Cape Verde low, as of the 2 PM EDT advisory...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[WeatherWitness]

Interesting...I thought TD 2 was going to develop into something (maybe even a hurricane), but I guess it ran into conditions that greatly weakened it (although it never really was much ).

Any ideas on when the second "disturbance" will become a TD?

[toxictwister00]

Interesting...I thought TD 2 was going to develop into something (maybe even a hurricane), but I guess it ran into conditions that greatly weakened it (although it never really was much ).

Any ideas on when the second "disturbance" will become a TD?

It probably will be a TD by the weekend if not a named storm Andy, the NHC has it at high risk for development (50% >). btw why is the disturbance in the carribean being ignored? it's looks much more healthy today.

African Disturbance Info
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[Anistorm]

I see that the one in the Caribbean has a lower chance of development. (< 30%)

[Anistorm]

TD 2 is no more! BUT, it has a potential to redevelop soon.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 132041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

...DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1500 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  THE
REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 38.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[phw115wvwx]

Ana, I highly doubt that tropical depression will redevelop unless environmental conditions miraculously improve.  It's time to focus on the new tropical wave that everyone has been mentioning over the past two days.

[TWCToday]

Im loosing hope with this system. My new hope is that it moves away from the next disturbance which is further south than the first system. This also looks promising

I still think this. All models show Invest 90 strengthening very nicely http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200990_model_intensity.gif

[toxictwister00]

Tropical Disturbance #4 (Homebrewed SE Coast Tropical Storm?)

It's like Duck,Duck,Goose in the Atlantic! Which one will be the duck (Ana) and which ones will be the goose for the time being?

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Pic attached below.

[phw115wvwx]

The remnants of Tropical Depression #2 are trying to regenerate as conditions have improved quite a bit for it.  Now, NHC has denoted it as a high potential (>50%) for redeveloping into a tropical depression.  A lot could happen this weekend in the Atlantic if conditions permit.

[beanboy89]

Tropical Depression Two has reformed...

Here's the 12:30 AM EDT advisory from the NHC:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150425
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO REGENERATES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

AT 1230 AM AST...0430 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1075 MILES...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEKEND. 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA BUOY 41041 IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 45.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

The center of the NHC forecast cone has the storm grazing Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and moving into The Bahamas by Wednesday evening.

[UC Davis Meteorologist]

Finally Tropical Storm Ana has formed!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[phw115wvwx]

It was quite a turnaround for Tropical Depression #2, but we finally have a named storm in the Atlantic!  Although it's early, Tropical Storm Ana has a rather ominous forecast track and will need to be monitored closely.  Here is NHC's forecast cone: