Hurricane Danielle

[toxictwister00]

Danielle is back to being a hurricane with winds of 75 mph as of the 11 PM advisory.  The models have shifted the track a little more westward, so Bermuda and the East Coast must keep a close watch on this developing situation.  Now, I'll try to answer the questions asked here:

Andy and Tavores, La Niña is only one factor among many to consider.  The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish.  La Niña conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.

Tavores, the possibility of it moving more west than due north is certainly there as it's weaker and would be steered more by the lower levels.  However, it's not going to be a huge factor as it's still a strong enough storm to feel the upper level winds.  Where the troughs and ridges are situated and how they change will be the bigger question going forward.

Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis.  I don't mean to offend anyone.  I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.

Thanks for the explanations Patrick, I was very curious about that possibility especially after what the 18z GFS showed that I posted. 

EDIT: Not only the GFS, but there are other models wanting to jump the westward bandwagon causing a great divide to put it lightly.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Birds Eye view on Danielle

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html

[TWCToday]

Andy and Tavores, La Niña is only one factor among many to consider.  The dry air and wind shear can be found locally in patches and will never completely vanish.  La Niña conditions only means that it's more likely there will be more favorable conditions for hurricanes, but note that it's only a probability, not a guarantee.

SAL has been rather pesky this year as well for tropical development. Would you say any more than usual?

Martin, intensity is the most difficult forecasting problem in a tropical cyclone forecast, so I'm just reinforcing it with more emphasis.  I don't mean to offend anyone.  I'm glad you all are a more educated group as I've had to struggle explaining these things to the normal public.

Oh I thought someone had mentioned it and I missed it. Sorry bout that. Yes intensity is about as accurate as a blind man bowling.

Models have started an interesting trend. Some believe this trough over the east coast will weaken and thus take this system more westward. Still the majority keep it well out in the Atlantic. I have very little confidence in this system getting anywhere near the eastern seaboard as of now.

NOGAPS doing its thing....

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated Track on Danielle

[TWCmatthew]

Also 2 more interesting systems behind Danielle. I think Earl may form late today/early tomorrow.

[phw115wvwx]

SAL has been rather pesky this year as well for tropical development. Would you say any more than usual?

There seemed to be a little more of it than usual to start the season, and we've had to slowly mix out that SAL over the past few months.

SAL stands for Saharan Air Layer if anyone else reading this is wondering.

[WeatherWitness]

AS OF 11PM EDT ADVISORY

Location: 22.4N 54.1W
Winds: 100 mph (Now a Cat 2)
Moving: NW at 17mph
Pressure: 975mb

[phw115wvwx]

It appears very likely that Danielle will miss the coast although Bermuda will be a close call.  However, the Northeast will get some decent surf, so they better watch for rip currents and beach erosion.

[TWCToday]

Models remain hilariously interesting as always

[gt1racerlHDl]

is it just me or does all the models want Danielle to hit the Titanic wreckage site?

[WeatherWitness]

is it just me or does all the models want Danielle to hit the Titanic wreckage site?

Danielle might make a direct hit on the Titanic weckage site. According to TWC this evening, there is a research program designed to look for evidence from the wreck almost a century later, but I guess that program could be delayed because the projected path is literally taking Danielle right in the center of the site.

And speaking of the path of Danielle, I guess that cold front moving off the US East Coast is really doing some "direction" work because Danielle is now expected to make a big curve to the north and then east. This reminds me of Bill last year and I think Bertha a few years ago.

[TWCmatthew]

Updated Track on Danielle

The titanic expedition crew might have to bail on Sunday or Monday.

[phw115wvwx]

Danielle has become the first major hurricane of the season.  A special 2 AM advisory shows that the winds are up to 120 mph, which makes it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  The pressure is down to 955 mb, and it will likely intensify even more over the next 24-48 hours before moving over colder waters with more wind shear and the inevitable extratropical transition to come.

Update:  As of 5 AM, Danielle has made another big jump in intensity.  It's now a Category 4 with winds of 135 mph, and the pressure dropped 9 mb in just 3 hours to 946 mb.  Even though the track is going to curve safely away from Bermuda and the East Coast, Danielle is becoming a fierce hurricane.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Looks like Danielle is going through the Eye Regeneration Process

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[toxictwister00]

Wow, I was surprised to see Danielle intensify into a Cat 4 overnight like it did since it was in some moderate shear yesterday and it wasn't looking that good on the southside.