Tropical Storm Matthew

[toxictwister00]

Matthew's "L" Shape track

[TWCToday]

There is barely any model consensus after 3 days.

[TWCToday]

One of the forecast offices in FL mentioned the GFS scenario:


12Z GFS MODEL STILL INDICATES SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT MAY LIFT OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED
RANGE. ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS JUST BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS TD #5 MAY LIFT N OR NE BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO THE ERN U.S. L/W TROUGH AND APPROACH FL...BUT EVEN THIS SCENARIO
HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THIS
WOULD BE BEYOND THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE LEFT EXTENDED
GRIDS PRETTY MUCH INTACT.

[WeatherWitness]

As of now, it looks like folks in Florida need to keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Matthew. The model tracks on weather.com show no turn, but NHC's projected path is showing a sharp turn that gives Matthew time and room to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico if conditions permit and possibly affect the US.

[phw115wvwx]

Anytime a storm is expected to stall out or make an abrupt change of direction, you can expect all the models to literally punt.  Forecasting the track of Matthew is going to be extremely hard.  If it runs into the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling out and making the turn northward towards the Gulf, it won't be nearly as strong or may even dissipate.  If it doesn't go inland, we would have a major problem on our hands over the Southeast.

TWCmatthew, why did you have to give us such a forecasting nightmare?

[Mr. Rainman]

Personally, I'd like it to hit as a weak storm, just so Tennessee and South Carolina (the two places I call home) can get some well-needed rain. And besides, I'm sick of this hot and dry weather we've had over the past several days.

[TWCmatthew]

Anytime a storm is expected to stall out or make an abrupt change of direction, you can expect all the models to literally punt.  Forecasting the track of Matthew is going to be extremely hard.  If it runs into the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling out and making the turn northward towards the Gulf, it won't be nearly as strong or may even dissipate.  If it doesn't go inland, we would have a major problem on our hands over the Southeast.

TWCmatthew, why did you have to give us such a forecasting nightmare?

lol  I'm glad my name is finally being used in weather! I was hoping to see a storm with my name back in 2004, but either it didn't get to "M" or it was a weak fish storm.

[Mr. Rainman]

Well, the sharp turn to the NE is still forecast, but it looks like the turn will be made a little late. Matthew is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall near Puerto Limpera, cross into the Yucatan, strengthen again, and then make another landfall as a hurricane as it turns N out towards the Gulf. Beyond that, we don't know what it will do.

Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 1005 mb
Direction: W 17 mph
Location: 356 miles E of Puerto Cabezas, Nicauragua

[twcclassics]

It's official. As of 5:00 PM ADT, 95L has become Tropical Storm Matthew!

Aaah yaaahh!!!!

[Mr. Rainman]

Doesn't look like its going to do much to the U.S. Forecast says it will become extratropical before hitting the Gulf. Sigh, I want something EXCITING to happen. Nicole, where ARE you?

[Mr. Rainman]

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...

Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 998 mb
Movement: W at 18 mph
Location: 26 miles NNE of Puerto Cabezas

[WeatherWitness]

UPDATE: As of the 5 PM EDT projected paths, Matthew will not only be dying out by the new week, it will also NO LONGER be making the sharp turn northward. The model tracks on weather.com have some crazy paths for Matthew; I think each track has a completely different track for this storm. However, except for the [not likely] chance that Matthew will make a 180 degree turn back out to the Caribbean, the US needs no longer to worry about Matthew.

[toxictwister00]

UPDATE: As of the 5 PM EDT projected paths, Matthew will not only be dying out by the new week, it will also NO LONGER be making the sharp turn northward. The model tracks on weather.com have some crazy paths for Matthew; I think each track has a completely different track for this storm. However, except for the [not likely] chance that Matthew will make a 180 degree turn back out to the Caribbean, the US needs no longer to worry about Matthew.

Not too surprising, it's been moving due west longer than it should have been compared to this time yesterday. Matthew had to punk out on us, many places in the South and Northeast could have used that much needed rainfall, shame on you Matthew, shame on you. 

[Mike M]

Do you guys think Matthew will still restrengthen when it enters the Gulf of Mexico? Models on wunderground still suggest the storm will take a turn northward and possibly impact the eastern seaboard. I hope this happens, because we need that moisture.

[toxictwister00]

Do you guys think Matthew will still restrengthen when it enters the Gulf of Mexico? Models on wunderground still suggest the storm will take a turn northward and possibly impact the eastern seaboard. I hope this happens, because we need that moisture.

It's certainly possible  , but it doesn't need to mingle over Central America too long if it plans to.