TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on September 21, 2010, 10:03:19 AM
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433
WHXX01 KWBC 211307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100921 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100921 1200 100922 0000 100922 1200 100923 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 62.8W 12.7N 65.1W 13.0N 67.7W 13.5N 70.4W
BAMD 12.2N 62.8W 12.5N 64.8W 12.7N 67.1W 12.9N 69.4W
BAMM 12.2N 62.8W 12.5N 64.9W 12.9N 67.4W 13.2N 69.8W
LBAR 12.2N 62.8W 12.8N 65.2W 13.4N 67.7W 13.8N 70.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100923 1200 100924 1200 100925 1200 100926 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 73.3W 14.4N 78.8W 15.7N 84.1W 17.0N 87.8W
BAMD 13.0N 71.9W 13.6N 77.1W 15.3N 82.3W 17.6N 86.5W
BAMM 13.5N 72.5W 14.3N 78.0W 15.8N 83.7W 17.3N 88.2W
LBAR 14.2N 73.5W 14.9N 80.0W 13.9N 85.6W 15.0N 87.8W
SHIP 66KTS 92KTS 109KTS 120KTS
DSHP 66KTS 92KTS 109KTS 120KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 62.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 58.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
hehe I bet you would enjoy the name :P
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
We'll see what happens, Matthew. Maybe it will be yours soon. ;) I've never had a storm named for me, and mine is just as common as yours.
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
We'll see what happens, Matthew. Maybe it will be yours soon. ;) I've never had a storm named for me, and mine is just as common as yours.
That's because the NHC uses stupid names like "Igor" for instance. I mean really, how many people do you know with that name? They might as well used my name, I know more people who have the same first name as me than I ever will someone with Igor. :rolleyes:
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That's because the NHC uses stupid names like "Igor" for instance. I mean really, how many people do you know with that name? They might as well used my name, I know more people who have the same first name as me than I ever will someone with Igor. :rolleyes:
NHC has no say with the names. The World Meteorological Organization takes name requests from the entire Atlantic basin and votes on them for inclusion into the 6-year cycle, so we'll naturally get entries from Latin America and the Caribbean. They want to be fair to all areas of the basin.
By the way, this invest now has a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
You're lucky that you can get a storm named after you. I wish there could be a Hurricane Pavel, but my name is neither English nor Spanish nor French. <_<
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
We'll see what happens, Matthew. Maybe it will be yours soon. ;) I've never had a storm named for me, and mine is just as common as yours.
I bet the name Patrick is next in line to replace a P-named storm.
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Most models take this to at least a TS with a few showing rapid development. Neither are uncommon for this area
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It might become Matthew in the near future. :happy:
We'll see what happens, Matthew. Maybe it will be yours soon. ;) I've never had a storm named for me, and mine is just as common as yours.
I bet the name Patrick is next in line to replace a P-named storm.
That would actually be Paula. :P
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GFS is still mighty strange with this. Takes it as a mediocre storm over FL and then has it explode and make landfall into SC.
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The National Hurricane Center just gave this disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Soon, we'll have Tropical Depression 13 on our hands, and then Matthew. Is it 13? I can't remember.
As for hitting SC, that's disturbing. I live near the coast, so...
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I'm very interested in seeing this one develop over the next week, it's 5 day track is even more interesting because it moves NW then takes a sharp turn NE brushing Belize. At the end, Tropical Storm or Hurricane I hope what the 00z run of the GFS showed last night is true and TD 15 rides up north through GA we need that rain, we might not have much opportunities to get a lot of rain if it's dry this winter.
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Wow, it's expected to ride the Yucatan Peninsula and then make a sharp turn to the NE towards Georgia, with winds up to 80 mph!
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It's official. As of 5:00 PM ADT, 95L has become Tropical Storm Matthew!
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Matthew's "L" Shape track
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1510W5_NL_sm2+gif/203526W5_NL_sm.gif)
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There is barely any model consensus after 3 days.
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One of the forecast offices in FL mentioned the GFS scenario:
12Z GFS MODEL STILL INDICATES SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM THAT MAY LIFT OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED
RANGE. ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS JUST BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS TD #5 MAY LIFT N OR NE BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO THE ERN U.S. L/W TROUGH AND APPROACH FL...BUT EVEN THIS SCENARIO
HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THIS
WOULD BE BEYOND THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE LEFT EXTENDED
GRIDS PRETTY MUCH INTACT.
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As of now, it looks like folks in Florida need to keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Matthew. :yes: The model tracks on weather.com show no turn, but NHC's projected path is showing a sharp turn that gives Matthew time and room to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico if conditions permit and possibly affect the US. :o
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Anytime a storm is expected to stall out or make an abrupt change of direction, you can expect all the models to literally punt. Forecasting the track of Matthew is going to be extremely hard. If it runs into the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling out and making the turn northward towards the Gulf, it won't be nearly as strong or may even dissipate. If it doesn't go inland, we would have a major problem on our hands over the Southeast.
TWCmatthew, why did you have to give us such a forecasting nightmare? :bleh:
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Personally, I'd like it to hit as a weak storm, just so Tennessee and South Carolina (the two places I call home) can get some well-needed rain. And besides, I'm sick of this hot and dry weather we've had over the past several days.
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Anytime a storm is expected to stall out or make an abrupt change of direction, you can expect all the models to literally punt. Forecasting the track of Matthew is going to be extremely hard. If it runs into the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling out and making the turn northward towards the Gulf, it won't be nearly as strong or may even dissipate. If it doesn't go inland, we would have a major problem on our hands over the Southeast.
TWCmatthew, why did you have to give us such a forecasting nightmare? :bleh:
lol :P I'm glad my name is finally being used in weather! I was hoping to see a storm with my name back in 2004, but either it didn't get to "M" or it was a weak fish storm.
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Well, the sharp turn to the NE is still forecast, but it looks like the turn will be made a little late. Matthew is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall near Puerto Limpera, cross into the Yucatan, strengthen again, and then make another landfall as a hurricane as it turns N out towards the Gulf. Beyond that, we don't know what it will do.
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 1005 mb
Direction: W 17 mph
Location: 356 miles E of Puerto Cabezas, Nicauragua
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It's official. As of 5:00 PM ADT, 95L has become Tropical Storm Matthew!
Aaah yaaahh!!!! :dance:
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Doesn't look like its going to do much to the U.S. Forecast says it will become extratropical before hitting the Gulf. Sigh, I want something EXCITING to happen. Nicole, where ARE you?
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...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...
Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 998 mb
Movement: W at 18 mph
Location: 26 miles NNE of Puerto Cabezas
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UPDATE: As of the 5 PM EDT projected paths, Matthew will not only be dying out by the new week, it will also NO LONGER be making the sharp turn northward. The model tracks on weather.com have some crazy paths for Matthew; I think each track has a completely different track for this storm. :blink: However, except for the [not likely] chance that Matthew will make a 180 degree turn back out to the Caribbean, the US needs no longer to worry about Matthew.
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UPDATE: As of the 5 PM EDT projected paths, Matthew will not only be dying out by the new week, it will also NO LONGER be making the sharp turn northward. The model tracks on weather.com have some crazy paths for Matthew; I think each track has a completely different track for this storm. :blink: However, except for the [not likely] chance that Matthew will make a 180 degree turn back out to the Caribbean, the US needs no longer to worry about Matthew.
Not too surprising, it's been moving due west longer than it should have been compared to this time yesterday. Matthew had to punk out on us, many places in the South and Northeast could have used that much needed rainfall, shame on you Matthew, shame on you. :nono: :P
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Do you guys think Matthew will still restrengthen when it enters the Gulf of Mexico? Models on wunderground still suggest the storm will take a turn northward and possibly impact the eastern seaboard. I hope this happens, because we need that moisture.
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Do you guys think Matthew will still restrengthen when it enters the Gulf of Mexico? Models on wunderground still suggest the storm will take a turn northward and possibly impact the eastern seaboard. I hope this happens, because we need that moisture.
It's certainly possible :yes:, but it doesn't need to mingle over Central America too long if it plans to.
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Do you guys think Matthew will still restrengthen when it enters the Gulf of Mexico? Models on wunderground still suggest the storm will take a turn northward and possibly impact the eastern seaboard. I hope this happens, because we need that moisture.
It's certainly possible :yes:, but it doesn't need to mingle over Central America too long if it plans to.
I don't think so anymore. I'm afraid it's going too far over central America and will just dissipate completely. Some moisture will be advected northward from it towards the eastern United States due to an upper-level low arriving, but I think Matthew may be done soon.
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Yeah, I think Matthew went way too far south to make its sharpward turn and have any affect on the US. Like Patrick said, looks like this storm is almost done. :(
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WTNT45 KNHC 251444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB
THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK
MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW.
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My NWS is now talking about Matthew and it's effects here. Looks like just clouds right now.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. HOWEVER...
LATEST GFS HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE WORKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS "WHAT APPEARS TO BE MATTHEW "LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AREA. HAVE KEEP THE EXTENDED
DRY...ELECTING TO SHOW JUST A BIT MORE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA FOR
NOW. FOR THE MOST PART NEAR NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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Matthew has now become a remnant low and will no longer be officially recognized by the National Weather Service, but it will still be monitered for the very small potential of redevelopment. There IS, however, a disturbance directly behind Matthew that has been given a 10% chance of development.
Sorry, twcMatthew. I was personally hoping your storm would last a few more days.
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I bet Matt (of TWC Classics) is disappointed, too. :P
Where are the remnants supposed to head (i.e. north to the Gulf, west to the Pacific, etc)? The models have taken the storm all over the place. :wacko:
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Matthew has now become a remnant low and will no longer be officially recognized by the National Weather Service, but it will still be monitered for the very small potential of redevelopment. There IS, however, a disturbance directly behind Matthew that has been given a 10% chance of development.
Booo!!!! :club: :censored: :P
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Matthew has now become a remnant low and will no longer be officially recognized by the National Weather Service, but it will still be monitered for the very small potential of redevelopment. There IS, however, a disturbance directly behind Matthew that has been given a 10% chance of development.
Booo!!!! :club: :censored: :P
Awww. You had a nice run :P