Winter of 2009-2010 Forecasts

[wxntrafficfan]

I'm really having a lot of trouble holding myself back here...

As per the NWS office in Grand Rapids, MI:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EXISTS FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM TRACKS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OHIO. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS THE STORM EVOLVES.

NWS in Detroit/Pontiac, MI

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW REMAINS IN
QUESTION...AS A FARTHER WEST TRACK NEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD
RESULT IN A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DETROIT METRO
AREA. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST.

And finally, the NWS in Northern Indiana:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SIGNIFICANT LATE FALL STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY
THURSDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL OCCUR. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIAL STORM.

MUCH MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE 30S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

All appear to be showing consistency in that there is likely to be a massive storm that will have some impact on us, and regardless of what precip or how much precip falls during the wrath of the storm here, there will be some cold air that is finally below average being ushered in behind the system.

But that is where the consistency stops.

Obviously, there is a good likelihood for snow. But there is over 2 daze from now up until this onset of the event. One issue that I am also looking at (which is influencing my thoughts on this) is that we have had two other storms, right at this exact time of year (immediate end of November, immediate beginning of December) both in 2006 and last year as well. BOTH appeared as though they were going to be major impacts to the area. BOTH were changed at the literal last minute, and things went downhill from there.

So at this point, I am abstaining from telling people the possibility is there until I see more consistency with the ingredients. I have to see the system formed and heading this way before I am convinced we could see something. It's frustrating though, being the person everyone asks about the weather at school.

[toxictwister00]

Hopefully it works out well for you Aaron, November is my favorite month, but it's also been the most boring month in general this year outside of just the weather. Speaking of snow, Jim Cantore seems to be getting excited about the possible winterstorm the SE could see this weekend, I'll monitor it, but I think next week will give us a better chance for snow/ice.

[wxntrafficfan]

Hopefully it works out well for you Aaron, November is my favorite month, but it's also been the most boring month in general this year outside of just the weather. Speaking of snow, Jim Cantore seems to be getting excited about the possible winterstorm the SE could see this weekend, I'll monitor it, but I think next week will give us a better chance for snow/ice.

Thanks, same to you

Forecasts are looking mixed at this point. Temperatures appear only marginally conducive for significant snow accumulations, and TWC is making me nervous with a low of 34 Wednesday nite and a high of 35 of Thursday. One thing that remains consistent throughout forecasts (TWC, NWS, and otherwise) is that the event will start out as rain and switch over to snow. This is what is causing forecasters to have some difficulty; how soon into the event does the rain transition over to snow, and how much cold air penetrates the system? At this point, despite the temperatures, it does appear as though I will be in the swath of the heavy snow.

[toxictwister00]

WOW, I'm kinda surprised to see TWC be bold enough to put winter weather in the forecast this far out, they're usually much more conservative. 

[wxmediafan]

All of the stations are being consistant in bringing in some snow next Tuesday-Wednesday, including The Weather Channel.  Hopefully this all works out, because I am READY for some snow.

[WeatherWitness]

It is snowing here right now.

Obviously, there won't be any accumulation since the ground is too warm, but still...

[wxmediafan]

Since the middle of last week, he local weather teams have been advertising a possible winter storm to come in tomorrow/Wednesday.  Each day, they kept saying the models are being consistant, bringing the heavy snow here.  Sure enough, models are still bringing heavy snow to the area.  A Winter Storm Watch was issued yesterday at around 5PM, and early this morning, it was upgraded (or downgraded.... however you like the news ) to a Blizzard Watch.  This morning, the local ABC afilliate is calling for 8-12 inches!  If we do see that, it will probably be the biggest storm we have seen in a good 4 or 5 yrs.

[Anistorm]

We're gonna get our first bands of rain here in my area (which is something we don't see every day here). Snow in La Rumorosa will fall at 2 inches. Gonna be a crazy Monday today 

[wxntrafficfan]

Since the middle of last week, the local weather teams have been advertising a possible winter storm to come in tomorrow/Wednesday.  Each day, they kept saying the models are being consistant, bringing the heavy snow here.  Sure enough, models are still bringing heavy snow to the area.  A Winter Storm Watch was issued yesterday at around 5PM, and early this morning, it was upgraded (or downgraded.... however you like the news ) to a Blizzard Watch.  This morning, the local ABC afilliate is calling for 8-12 inches!  If we do see that, it will probably be the biggest storm we have seen in a good 4 or 5 yrs.

Well, I got a Winter Storm Watch this morning, but I'm barely on the edge of it.

It appears as though the low will track right over me. This is almost the exact same track as the storm at the beginning of December 2006 took, and if you recall, that was an El Nino winter as well. I wish I could get a Blizzard Watch, but this does not look like the kind of winter that will bring that to me.

[Mike M]

Oh, I'll do anything for a blizzard watch. I can't remember ever getting one

[Anistorm]

Oh, I'll do anything for a blizzard watch. I can't remember ever getting one

LOL, wish I had one of those too... but I never do. 

[Mike M]

LOL, wish I had one of those too... but I never do. 

Well, at least we get winter storm advisories/warnings all the time

[toxictwister00]

The only rare winter type watch/warning I can remember having is a Heavy Snow Warning, It didn't take them long to downgrade it to a Snow Advisory which made more sense since there was not real heavy snow and we only picked up a couple of inches instead of the 6-8 we were forecasted to.

[toxictwister00]

Saturday is looking awfully fishy on this forecast.

[wxntrafficfan]

Saturday is looking awfully fishy on this forecast.

lol yeah, it sort of does

Geesh, the two tiers of counties closest to Lake Michigan have Blizzard Warnings.

It's not fair! I want one SO bad. I wish I lived closer to the lake.