Summer 2010 Discussion

[wxntrafficfan]

Since I didn't see this anywhere else, I thought it would be an interesting idea to discuss the upcoming weather this summer.
I definitely see a warmer and drier summer this go around for the midwest. Just check out some of my totals here in Lansing:
Precipitation/Snowfall totals this past winter season (in that order)...
November: 0.99/T, Avg 2.66/5.1
December: 1.52/11.4, Avg 2.17/13.2
January: 0.86/9.4, Avg 1.61/14.0
February: 1.35/20.6, Avg 1.45/10.6
March (to date): 0.44/1.2, Avg 1.97/7.9
Season total: 5.16/42.6, Avg 9.86/50.8

So, here's the breakdown. This winter was below normal in both precipitation and snowfall, with above average temperatures as well. I was incredibly disappointed with November, since we usually see our first measurable snow before the end of that month. However, when December came around, I truly thought that we may swim when it comes to average snowfall, and not be too far below normal. Essentially, we did see near average snow in Lansing this past winter, and granted, it was not nearly as far below average as it was the previous El Nino season... 2006-2007. But frankly, had February not been so lucky for me, we definitely would have sunk. Nonetheless, check out March's precipitation total. I've noticed how considerably dry it has been lately, and we have not seen much of any rain (we have seen some, but it has obviously been quite light). Case and point, my thought process is this:

• Since this past winter has been drier than normal, both in terms of precip and snow...
• Since this past winter has been warmer than normal

I see a warmer and drier summer coming ahead for those of us in the midwest, at least. Another factor to consider is the sunspot activity. While there really has not been a direct correlation to be proven, generally when you see a solar maximum (period of high levels of sunspots)... you tend to have more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting heat waves. We have been in a solar minimum the past few years, and we're now coming out of it. That being said, I don't believe this will be an all time record warm summer... but I do see it being much warmer and drier than the previous two summers.

Here's the current drought monitor:


If our current precipitation pattern continues, I expect that area of persistent drought up towards northern Wisconsin and the south central portion of the UP to expand. We have a few showers in the forecast for tonite and tomorrow, however, we are not likely to see enough to take March's total over an inch. Start conversing!

[Localonthe8s]

Hoping it'll be warmer than usual like in 06 and 07....

[toxictwister00]

Hoping it'll be warmer than usual like in 06 and 07....

2 weeks of 100+ temps, no thanks. If we have that kind of Summer again down here I'm gonna have to walk around naked.

But anyway, As far as the Southeast, I think it will be similar to last summer. Cool and wet with occasional warm spells in between. I'm not ready to say "hot spells" because my definition of that would be 95° and above temps for more than 3 hours during the day and I don't think that will happen in widespread areas east of the Miss. River Valley. Severe Weather during the summer months should be average or slightly below average as well as any flash flooding events.

Now, for Hurricane Season 2010, if your expecting a thrilling, wild, exciting hurricane season, I don't think it will be in the cards this year, but we may have a couple more storms than last year. I don't have the SSTs saved on my computer atm, but areas such as the Gulf of Mexico are well below average for late March heading into April with 60's for water temps along the north/central Gulf thanks to our vigorous El Nino where we had numerous arctic fronts sweep throughout the GOM & FL cooling water temps, but in areas that are typically not so warm are seeing slightly above and in some cases well above water temps in along the EC and the East/Central ATL. So any tropical development I believe will be in these areas. The African wave express I believe will be active this year as well, but whether or not they recurve or make it to the US will depend on track and other hinderers such as dry airmass, cooler waters, and wind shear.

Target Areas Chances of being hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane (Minor or Major)

East Coast (Eastside of FL up to Maine) - 65%
Gulf Coast (TX to FL) - 35%

If anyone wants to know, here are the names for Hurricane Season 2010:
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

[wxntrafficfan]

I would have to disagree with alot of the sentiment you've mentioned about the hot weather, Tavores. A couple of factors are combining here. Let's not forget the summer of 2007, which was rather warm. I know I hit 96 during July that summer. So there's not only that correlation, but we have much more sunspot activity than we did in 2007. Plus, remember, there was some widespread hot weather last summer.

As for the hurricane season, we are coming out of an El Nino and transitioning into a La Nina pattern, so I would say that activity will increase over last year (granted, not dramatically, but case and point). The tracks and non-conducive conditions are nearly unpredictable, imo.

[toxictwister00]

I would have to disagree with alot of the sentiment you've mentioned about the hot weather, Tavores. A couple of factors are combining here. Let's not forget the summer of 2007, which was rather warm. I know I hit 96 during July that summer. So there's not only that correlation, but we have much more sunspot activity than we did in 2007. Plus, remember, there was some widespread hot weather last summer.

As for the hurricane season, we are coming out of an El Nino and transitioning into a La Nina pattern, so I would say that activity will increase over last year (granted, not dramatically, but case and point). The tracks and non-conducive conditions are nearly unpredictable, imo.

Like I said, I think there will be warm/hot spells, but I don't think they will be long lasting over my region. The areas I believe will get blasted with heat will be in what is "Tornado Alley" over the Plains region 95° and above over a span of a few weeks. Eventhough this was a pretty decent El Nino even we have been in, it's also been unusual compared to others including the analog El Nino year of 2006-07'. That's why I don't want to compare what happened after that El Nino to what will happen after this one. Although, you could be right when it comes to sunspot activity. If it does continue to increase during the summer, this summer may be similar to how the Summer of 2007 was, but right now I just don't think it will be.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Hmm i might have a shot at cat 4-5 this yr 

[TWCToday]

Perhaps the gulf is cool but the average SSTs are near records for this time of the year. El Nino also looking to break soon! I am expecting a much better tropical year

[Localonthe8s]

Hmm i might have a shot at cat 4-5 this yr 

You naughty hurricane

[sonicdoommario]

I hope here in Massachusetts that we don't wind up with another summer 2009.

In June, we had like 3 sunny days and temperatures struggling to get into the 60s....it was so depressing....

In July, this yellow circled thing called the sun finally popped up, but temps were still too cool......I didn't get my AC put in til the end of July!

August gave us the middle finger.....we had a few 90 degree days but then the heat subsided.....then, near the end of the month, we have this one last hot day, then boom, fall arrives before September does...

My AC usually goes in during mid/late June, maybe early June if hot enough...

[Localonthe8s]

I hope here in Massachusetts that we don't wind up with another summer 2009.

In June, we had like 3 sunny days and temperatures struggling to get into the 60s....it was so depressing....

In July, this yellow circled thing called the sun finally popped up, but temps were still too cool......I didn't get my AC put in til the end of July!

August gave us the middle finger.....we had a few 90 degree days but then the heat subsided.....then, near the end of the month, we have this one last hot day, then boom, fall arrives before September does...

My AC usually goes in during mid/late June, maybe early June if hot enough...

I only used my central A/C *once* during mid August. And I didn't turn on my bedroom A/C till the end of July-mid August. usually both are on from Late June to Early Sept.

[wxntrafficfan]

We are now slated to end the month with 0.44" of precipitation... and while the average of 2.33" doesn't make for a dramatic departure from normal, it is a sign. Here's a map of Southwestern Lower Michigan and another of Michigan... with the month-to-date percent of normal precipitation on an overlay. Basically, an area from just southwest of Lansing up through the Lake Huron shore of the thumb is in a serious setup for a drought. Also notice how serious northern Lower Michigan and the UP are.

[toxictwister00]

I would have to disagree with alot of the sentiment you've mentioned about the hot weather, Tavores. A couple of factors are combining here. Let's not forget the summer of 2007, which was rather warm. I know I hit 96 during July that summer. So there's not only that correlation, but we have much more sunspot activity than we did in 2007. Plus, remember, there was some widespread hot weather last summer.

As for the hurricane season, we are coming out of an El Nino and transitioning into a La Nina pattern, so I would say that activity will increase over last year (granted, not dramatically, but case and point). The tracks and non-conducive conditions are nearly unpredictable, imo.

Like I said, I think there will be warm/hot spells, but I don't think they will be long lasting over my region. The areas I believe will get blasted with heat will be in what is "Tornado Alley" over the Plains region 95° and above over a span of a few weeks. Eventhough this was a pretty decent El Nino even we have been in, it's also been unusual compared to others including the analog El Nino year of 2006-07'. That's why I don't want to compare what happened after that El Nino to what will happen after this one. Although, you could be right when it comes to sunspot activity. If it does continue to increase during the summer, this summer may be similar to how the Summer of 2007 was, but right now I just don't think it will be.

I forgot to mention that I think this hurricane season will be similar to 2004, a slow start like in late July/Early August, but I think US landfall tracks will favor the EC instead of the GOM.

[Mike M]

Last winter brought us a lot of snow, and the excessive moisture continued into March. Our monthly precip last month totaled 7.93 inches - about 4-5 inches above normal.

[wxntrafficfan]

Last winter brought us a lot of snow, and the excessive moisture continued into March. Our monthly precip last month totaled 7.93 inches - about 4-5 inches above normal.

Yeah, the storm pattern has definitely favored the mid-Atlantic, and not the Midwest. The question is... will this pattern remain?

[BOLT96]

Last winter brought us a lot of snow, and the excessive moisture continued into March. Our monthly precip last month totaled 7.93 inches - about 4-5 inches above normal.

Yeah, the storm pattern has definitely favored the mid-Atlantic, and not the Midwest. The question is... will this pattern remain?

I sure hope not. I'm tired of all this rain and snow.