Since I didn't see this anywhere else, I thought it would be an interesting idea to discuss the upcoming weather this summer.
I definitely see a warmer and drier summer this go around for the midwest. Just check out some of my totals here in Lansing:
Precipitation/Snowfall totals this past winter season (in that order)...
November: 0.99/T, Avg 2.66/5.1
December: 1.52/11.4, Avg 2.17/13.2
January: 0.86/9.4, Avg 1.61/14.0
February: 1.35/20.6, Avg 1.45/10.6
March (to date): 0.44/1.2, Avg 1.97/7.9
Season total: 5.16/42.6, Avg 9.86/50.8
So, here's the breakdown. This winter was below normal in both precipitation and snowfall, with above average temperatures as well. I was incredibly disappointed with November, since we usually see our first measurable snow before the end of that month. However, when December came around, I truly thought that we may swim when it comes to average snowfall, and not be too far below normal. Essentially, we did see
near average snow in Lansing this past winter, and granted, it was not nearly as far below average as it was the previous El Nino season... 2006-2007. But frankly, had February not been so lucky for me, we definitely would have sunk. Nonetheless, check out March's precipitation total. I've noticed how considerably dry it has been lately, and we have not seen much of any rain (we have seen some, but it has obviously been quite light). Case and point, my thought process is this:
- Since this past winter has been drier than normal, both in terms of precip and snow...
- Since this past winter has been warmer than normal
I see a warmer and drier summer coming ahead for those of us in the midwest, at least. Another factor to consider is the sunspot activity. While there really has not been a direct correlation to be proven, generally when you see a solar maximum (period of high levels of sunspots)... you tend to have more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting heat waves. We have been in a solar minimum the past few years, and we're now coming out of it. That being said, I don't believe this will be an all time record warm summer... but I do see it being much warmer and drier than the previous two summers.
Here's the current drought monitor:
If our current precipitation pattern continues, I expect that area of persistent drought up towards northern Wisconsin and the south central portion of the UP to expand. We have a few showers in the forecast for tonite and tomorrow, however, we are not likely to see enough to take March's total over an inch. Start conversing!
