Southeast Severe Weather

[phw115wvwx]

Tonight and the next two days could be quite eventful for the Southeast.  The Storm Prediction Center just issued a tornado watch for eastern Texas and western Louisiana now, and the convective outlook for Friday has a moderate risk of severe weather for eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi with the rest of the Southeast under a slight risk.  A few strong tornadoes could form tomorrow according to the Storm Prediction Center discussions.  Saturday also has a threat for severe weather closer to the coast as an area of low pressure from the southern Rockies treks across the Southeast, which is promoting this threat.  Anyone with thoughts about the upcoming severe weather or storm reports from the Southeast are welcome to share here.

[toxictwister00]

Thanks Patrick for starting this thread, here's the latest radar image from TWC including the watch outline boxes, Notice the very small Severe Thunderstorm Watch they issued for NE Texas for those two supercells. Also in Georgia the wedge has broken and temps soared from the mid 50's to the mid 60's in a matter of a few hours, there was even a peek of sunshine today, if conditions are like that tomorrow after sunrise, things will get real violent and nasty around here, the atmosphere is already getting and continuing to unstablize tonight since the wedge broke down from the warm front retreating north of us.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/map/USGA0028?mapregion=us_se_9regradar_plus_usen&showanimation=yes&bypassredirect=true

[wxntrafficfan]

Man, I can't even begin to describe how jealous I am of this. Apparently, a tornado was just spotted crossing the I-95 corridor (streaming live on TWC as we speak) in North Carolina, and the same area that just got Flash Flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi are under the gun for tornadoes. Even in Oklahoma, there is the significant risk for tornadoes and a raging blizzard in the same state!

[lfmusiclover]

They say this system could produce some thunderstorms here over the weekend. I'll be eagerly waiting to see what develops. 

[Localonthe8s]

They say this system could produce some thunderstorms here over the weekend. I'll be eagerly waiting to see what develops. 

Same here, I really am in the mood for some thunderstorms!! Even tonight it's possible too.

[phw115wvwx]

Gary and Victor, both of your areas are now under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow according to the latest SPC convective outlooks.

[toxictwister00]

A Tornado Watch may be issued for the area in red.

[Localonthe8s]

Here's a satellite lf from 10:38pm. Look at all these warnings and watches at the beginning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6olGhhPjY&feature=channel_page

[phw115wvwx]

The slight risk that I mentioned yesterday from SPC is now verifying.  A tornado warning is in effect near Lancaster, PA, and I sure hope Billy has taken cover.  Here's a link to the radar for the storm triggering the tornado warning, and it looks nasty:  http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dox&product=N0R&loop=yes

Everyone in eastern Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey should keep an eye out on this radar for developing storms that could possibly turn severe.  Even though this is not for the Southeast, it's still the same low-pressure system that caused all the havoc in the deep South the past two days.

[toxictwister00]

I'm going to get more severe weather tomorrow, this one looks to be more serious than last week's event, Dr. Forbes and Jim Cantore both said the greatest threat will be long tracking tornados, the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe storms in Alabama and Mississippi. I'm going to keep my eye on this as Cantore said it only takes a little bit of sunshine to destablize the atmosphere and cause it to get violent. The edge of the moderate risk is just west of Atlanta.

Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 011730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SWRN TN...MS AL
   AND WRN GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SRN
   PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SERN STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
   THURSDAY. ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE OVER OK EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT
   ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...REACHING THE OH VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND EXTEND FROM
   THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD INTO
   THE GULF COASTAL STATES...BUT NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY
   BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION.
   
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES AND TN VALLEY...
   
   THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT OVER A PORTION OF
   THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS DO EXIST. THE
   RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
   HAS BEEN SHUNTED SWD INTO THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY
   ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTORS INVOLVE
   IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. ONE SUCH
   IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF REGION EARLY
   THURSDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
   WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN
   GULF...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. CONCERN IS THAT THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SOME
   EXTENT WITH LOW TO MID 60S MORE LIKELY OVER THE SERN STATES THAN
   UPPER 60S INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS. REMNANT EML WILL LIKELY ADVECT
   EWD ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS...AND IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
   FOR EARLY STRATUS COULD RESULT IN A CAP IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
   THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
   DAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT...WITH
   MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING/DPVA ALONG AND
   JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN TX
   INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY AND
   GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   AND LEWP STRUCTURES. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE
   ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AL...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   WILL INITIALLY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO THE SPLIT LOW LEVEL
   JET STRUCTURE WITH ONE BRANCH FARTHER WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER BRANCH FARTHER SWD ALONG
   THE GULF COAST. DISCRETE INITIATION AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   IS POSSIBLE BUT IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
   MODEST CAP AND PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT
   BREAKS OCCUR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME IN THIS REGION AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN DEVELOP AND
   BE MAINTAINED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...THE THE TORNADO
   THREAT WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE HIGHER.
   
   OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
   VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
   
   ...SE GA INTO CAROLINAS...
   
   THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ENEWD
   THROUGH SRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SOME INLAND RECOVERY IS
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES
   AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/01/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2203Z (6:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
       

[toxictwister00]

Today I'm under a moderate risk for severe weather, an upgrade from yesterday. The last time I was in that risk was in mid February when my county was under 5 tornado warnings.The sun is out so it won't be long before things get violent. The picture below is of a tornado watch just issued for West/Central Tennessee & Southern Kentucky region not too long ago.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   855 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          WESTERN KENTUCKY
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
   PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING
   GREEN KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST TO THE LWR OH VLY
   THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN
   AND WRN KY. STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ALONG THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OF THE
   WATCH WITH MEMPHIS VWP INDICATING 70-75KT OF FLOW AT 2KM AGL.
   THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH LINE
   SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS MOVING AT OVER 40KT. TORNADO THREAT WILL
   EXIST NEAR BREAKS IN THE LINE AND ALONG/NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/WARM
   FRONT ACROSS SECTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ALSO LIKELY AS CONVECTION MATURES AND TAPS
   GREATER INSTABILITY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
   
   
   ...CARBIN

[toxictwister00]

Here's a radar image of all the Tornado warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings throughout the SE, Check out that supercell in Northern Alabama that doesn't have a warning in the last frame! It's probably dropping some serious large hail there!

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severenow/floater3_large_animated.html?from=hp_main_maps&from=hp_main_maps

[ruhgster]

High risk now for part of the SE.


PDS (Particularily Dangerous Situation) tornado watch for parts of TN, AL, and extreme NW GA.


Tornado warnings almost continuously from the northern to southern border of TN along that line.

[ruhgster]

Earlier the NWS in Nashville issued the rare and serious "Tornado Emergency" for Murfreesboro, TN.  This is only used when indications are a tornado that may cause major damage is heading towards an area of high population.

[phw115wvwx]

The "high risk" is the highest level of risk issued by SPC, and they issue this risk level only a few times a year at most.  Here's a table from SPC that translates the risk levels into probabilities of seeing the various types of severe weather for the day 1 outlook:


To put this "high risk" in more perspective, I found this Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days, which shows that this risk level has only been issued 75 known times since 1984!  I really hope everyone will be okay as a major severe weather outbreak is taking place, and there are multiple tornado warnings currently in effect across the "high risk" area.  That tornado emergency for Murfreesboro, TN is really bad to hear, and I'm afraid that we may hear of injuries and fatalities before this evening is done.