TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => General Weather Chat => Topic started by: phw115wvwx on March 26, 2009, 05:32:40 PM
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Tonight and the next two days could be quite eventful for the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center just issued a tornado watch for eastern Texas and western Louisiana now, and the convective outlook for Friday has a moderate risk of severe weather for eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi with the rest of the Southeast under a slight risk. A few strong tornadoes could form tomorrow according to the Storm Prediction Center discussions. Saturday also has a threat for severe weather closer to the coast as an area of low pressure from the southern Rockies treks across the Southeast, which is promoting this threat. Anyone with thoughts about the upcoming severe weather or storm reports from the Southeast are welcome to share here. B)
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Thanks Patrick for starting this thread, here's the latest radar image from TWC including the watch outline boxes, Notice the very small Severe Thunderstorm Watch they issued for NE Texas for those two supercells. Also in Georgia the wedge has broken and temps soared from the mid 50's to the mid 60's in a matter of a few hours, there was even a peek of sunshine today, if conditions are like that tomorrow after sunrise, things will get real violent and nasty around here, the atmosphere is already getting and continuing to unstablize tonight since the wedge broke down from the warm front retreating north of us.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/map/USGA0028?mapregion=us_se_9regradar_plus_usen&showanimation=yes&bypassredirect=true (http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/map/USGA0028?mapregion=us_se_9regradar_plus_usen&showanimation=yes&bypassredirect=true)
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Man, I can't even begin to describe how jealous I am of this. Apparently, a tornado was just spotted crossing the I-95 corridor (streaming live on TWC as we speak) in North Carolina, and the same area that just got Flash Flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi are under the gun for tornadoes. Even in Oklahoma, there is the significant risk for tornadoes and a raging blizzard in the same state!
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They say this system could produce some thunderstorms here over the weekend. I'll be eagerly waiting to see what develops. :D
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They say this system could produce some thunderstorms here over the weekend. I'll be eagerly waiting to see what develops. :D
Same here, I really am in the mood for some thunderstorms!! :D Even tonight it's possible too.
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Gary and Victor, both of your areas are now under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow according to the latest SPC convective outlooks.
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A Tornado Watch may be issued for the area in red.
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Here's a satellite lf from 10:38pm. Look at all these warnings and watches at the beginning. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6olGhhPjY&feature=channel_page# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6olGhhPjY&feature=channel_page#)
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The slight risk that I mentioned yesterday from SPC is now verifying. A tornado warning is in effect near Lancaster, PA, and I sure hope Billy has taken cover. Here's a link to the radar for the storm triggering the tornado warning, and it looks nasty: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dox&product=N0R&loop=yes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dox&product=N0R&loop=yes)
Everyone in eastern Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey should keep an eye out on this radar for developing storms that could possibly turn severe. Even though this is not for the Southeast, it's still the same low-pressure system that caused all the havoc in the deep South the past two days.
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I'm going to get more severe weather tomorrow, this one looks to be more serious than last week's event, Dr. Forbes and Jim Cantore both said the greatest threat will be long tracking tornados, the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe storms in Alabama and Mississippi. I'm going to keep my eye on this as Cantore said it only takes a little bit of sunshine to destablize the atmosphere and cause it to get violent. The edge of the moderate risk is just west of Atlanta.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif)
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif)
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SWRN TN...MS AL
AND WRN GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SRN
PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
THURSDAY. ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE OVER OK EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT
ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...REACHING THE OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST AND EXTEND FROM
THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD INTO
THE GULF COASTAL STATES...BUT NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION.
...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES AND TN VALLEY...
THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT OVER A PORTION OF
THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS DO EXIST. THE
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
HAS BEEN SHUNTED SWD INTO THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTORS INVOLVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF REGION EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN
GULF...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. CONCERN IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT THE NWD RETURN OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SOME
EXTENT WITH LOW TO MID 60S MORE LIKELY OVER THE SERN STATES THAN
UPPER 60S INLAND FROM COASTAL AREAS. REMNANT EML WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EWD ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS...AND IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY STRATUS COULD RESULT IN A CAP IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT...WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING/DPVA ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN TX
INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND LEWP STRUCTURES. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AL...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL INITIALLY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO THE SPLIT LOW LEVEL
JET STRUCTURE WITH ONE BRANCH FARTHER WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ANOTHER BRANCH FARTHER SWD ALONG
THE GULF COAST. DISCRETE INITIATION AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS POSSIBLE BUT IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST CAP AND PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT
BREAKS OCCUR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME IN THIS REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN DEVELOP AND
BE MAINTAINED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...THE THE TORNADO
THREAT WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE HIGHER.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
...SE GA INTO CAROLINAS...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ENEWD
THROUGH SRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SOME INLAND RECOVERY IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 04/01/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2203Z (6:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Today I'm under a moderate risk for severe weather, an upgrade from yesterday. The last time I was in that risk was in mid February when my county was under 5 tornado warnings.The sun is out so it won't be long before things get violent. The picture below is of a tornado watch just issued for West/Central Tennessee & Southern Kentucky region not too long ago.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0131_radar_big.gif)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST TO THE LWR OH VLY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN
AND WRN KY. STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OF THE
WATCH WITH MEMPHIS VWP INDICATING 70-75KT OF FLOW AT 2KM AGL.
THUS...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS MOVING AT OVER 40KT. TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST NEAR BREAKS IN THE LINE AND ALONG/NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT ACROSS SECTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ALSO LIKELY AS CONVECTION MATURES AND TAPS
GREATER INSTABILITY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CARBIN
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Here's a radar image of all the Tornado warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings throughout the SE, Check out that supercell in Northern Alabama that doesn't have a warning in the last frame! It's probably dropping some serious large hail there!
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severenow/floater3_large_animated.html?from=hp_main_maps&from=hp_main_maps (http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severenow/floater3_large_animated.html?from=hp_main_maps&from=hp_main_maps)
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High risk now for part of the SE.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2009/day1otlk_20090410_2000_prt.gif)
PDS (Particularily Dangerous Situation) tornado watch for parts of TN, AL, and extreme NW GA.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0132_radar.gif)
Tornado warnings almost continuously from the northern to southern border of TN along that line.
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Earlier the NWS in Nashville issued the rare and serious "Tornado Emergency" for Murfreesboro, TN. This is only used when indications are a tornado that may cause major damage is heading towards an area of high population.
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The "high risk" is the highest level of risk issued by SPC, and they issue this risk level only a few times a year at most. Here's a table from SPC that translates the risk levels into probabilities of seeing the various types of severe weather for the day 1 outlook:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day1_seetext.jpg)
To put this "high risk" in more perspective, I found this Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days), which shows that this risk level has only been issued 75 known times since 1984! I really hope everyone will be okay as a major severe weather outbreak is taking place, and there are multiple tornado warnings currently in effect across the "high risk" area. That tornado emergency for Murfreesboro, TN is really bad to hear, and I'm afraid that we may hear of injuries and fatalities before this evening is done. :no:
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This just in!
A new tornado watch for Georgia has been issued, it's also a PDS Watch.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0134.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0134.html)
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Here's a picture
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0134_radar_big.gif)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANNISTON
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...WW 132...WW 133...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JETS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS WW THIS EVENING.
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED/DAMAGING TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WEDGE SURFACE FRONT OVER GA/AL
COUNTIES WITHIN WW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...EVANS
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What does TWC do if they have to take cover? Do they have storm safe studios?
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What does TWC do if they have to take cover? Do they have storm safe studios?
IDK, I would hope they do, it would be dangerous to be in that HD studio if a tornado hit with all of the heavy equipment hanging around. :(
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I remember last year when CNN got hit, the next day they broadcasted from the CNN International studios downstairs (I have no clue if that's underground or just down a floor) for about an hour because they were under another tornado warning and the CNN US studios had already been damaged. I think there were places you could look up and see sky, and they had tarps over some computers to protect from getting wet.
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These supercell thunderstorms are amazing! Most of them have tornado warnings now as well.
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Updated Radar
I'm watching the supercell that now has a tornado warning and is on a B-Line for Atlanta. We haven't had any rain since this morning and the temps are in the mid 70's so it's extremely ripe for tornados to come through here.
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I apologize if this is spam, but I'm trying my best to track these storms and you can watch my effort here. :P
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/twczach-live! (http://www.ustream.tv/channel/twczach-live!)
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Here are the storm reports from SPC for April 10, 2009: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090410_rpts.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090410_rpts.html)
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This just in...
Tornado Warning for Houston, TX, with the exact same situation Lansing had on June 8th, 2008!
TORNADO WARNING
TXC201-121730-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0008.090412T1651Z-090412T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOWNTOWN HOUSTON... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
JACINTO STATE PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...
SHELDON...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...CROSBY...
CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW...BARRETT AND ALDINE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 2971 9500 2971 9502 2970 9503 2975 9542
2989 9544 3009 9507 3001 9506 3001 9505
2970 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 264DEG 24KT 2981 9539