Christmas Blizzard? 12/24-12/27/10

[gt1racerlHDl]

Preliminary reports calling for 12+ in Southern New England (Including Fall River)

[phw115wvwx]

We're going to have a major snowstorm after all.  The European was correct at the onset.  Now, the GFS has shown consistency over the last runs that the Northeast is going to see a good bit of snow.  None of the models have done well, so I'm really starting to see why forecasters are turning to ensemble forecasting (using all the models and slightly perturbing the initial conditions to get a big suite of blended model solutions and doing statistics on them to get an idea of the spread, mean, and outliers).

[gt1racerlHDl]

Blizzard Warning in effect until 6PM EST Monday for Inland Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts excluding Cape Cod and the Islands

[gt1racerlHDl]

wxchannel via Twitter 1hr ago

wxchannel: More from NWS-Boston: Snow totals over 20" possible in RI/eastern MA. 50-60 mph gusts Sun night.

[TWCToday]

Winter Storm Warnings here. Expecting close to a foot

[phw115wvwx]

Blizzard warnings are in effect for the New York City region in addition to eastern Massachusetts, which Alex already mentioned above.  Winter storm warnings now line up all along the East Coast.  We have a real winter storm on our hands, and there's not much lead time at all to prepare for this mess.  I was afraid this would happen in the back of my mind.

[Localonthe8s]

I'm under a blizzard warning with 16 - 20" of snow. I'm kinda scared bout this :/

[TWCToday]

I'm under a blizzard warning with 16 - 20" of snow. I'm kinda scared bout this :/

Just dont drive and you will be fine.

[Localonthe8s]

Well my dad ha to drive to work..

[TWCToday]

Well my dad ha to drive to work..

When does he get off? Things will be ok probably until noon-3pm up there

[Localonthe8s]

Like 8:30 haha and it's one of those jobs where taking a day off can hurt your employment..so he really did have to drive. Right now it's snowing heavily. According to WmGm they say that the snow will continue on tonight to late Monday

[wxmediafan]

I am completely jealous of those being affected!  Looks like it's going to be a pretty healthy snow.

I do have a question about the computer models.  I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?

[phw115wvwx]

I do have a question about the computer models.  I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?

I haven't heard this claim myself, but I do know that a lot of forecasters respect the European model.  I'm starting to use it more and more now.  It's probably the only model out there that rivals or can even beat the GFS at this time.  No other models come close to these two on average for mid-latitude weather.

[TWCToday]

I am completely jealous of those being affected!  Looks like it's going to be a pretty healthy snow.

I do have a question about the computer models.  I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?

The EURO *typically* does better than other models in the long term. Its usually improved and updated more often and is privately funded. If you go to AmericanWx you find dozens of mets who regard the EURO very highly. It still can and is wrong but generally gets a good idea of the picture. GFS is ok but seems to have a hard time. Of course no met uses only one model.

[gt1racerlHDl]

So far there is 2" on the ground and it's even before the 4pm & 7pm windows