TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => General Weather Chat => Topic started by: gt1racerlHDl on December 21, 2010, 05:02:53 PM
-
Will there or Won't there be a blizzard?
(http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2010/400x266_12211612_crosscountrysnowstorm.jpg)
-
This potential storm has been on my mind for the last few days from model runs. I'm afraid there will be something for the Northeast, but I couldn't tell you how much impact we'll see right now as the models have really struggled with a hodgepodge of solutions.
-
The Euro has been showing a monster storm for parts of VA and the east coast. However the GFS basically lost the system today. The Euro in general is a good model. Its struggled unfortunately last weekend. I doubt there will be a monster storm but I think there will be a decent storm for some areas. VA could be hard hit. Lots of cold air hanging around too. This storm is getting a lot of hype in the media because of the date.
Btw your video doesnt wor
-
This would be killer for my area
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg)
-
Btw your video doesnt work
Ya about that.. that's a story for another day
Meanwhile here's what my local station is saying
(http://www1.whdh.com/images/weather/producer_uploads/7day_wide_629x354.jpg?20101221042916)
http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ (http://www1.whdh.com/weather/)
Saturday: Sunny & chilly for all the little whos in Whoville! Highs in the mid 30s. Clouds thicken, and snow could break out Christmas night...depending on the speed and track of the storm.
Sunday: Cloudy skies with some patchy light snow through the day---from a big ocean storm, if it's closer to the coast then it's a bigger storm for us--stay tuned! Low 30s.
-
Here is what your forecast office is saying. I personally wouldnt trust anything tv mets say this far off. They always tend to stay on the safe side or just repeat the NWS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT WE
WILL GET PRECIPITATED UPON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BUT
AS FOR HOW MUCH AND WHERE AND WHAT TYPE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME DUE TO AN AMAZING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISPARITY.
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PAST FEW RUNS IN
WHIZZING THE STORM OUT TO SEA QUICKLY...GIVING US A SHOT OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS DID NOT HAVE THE BEST TRACK RECORD
HOWEVER WITH THIS PREVIOUS STORM AND ALL OF THE SNOW ON CAPE COD
YESTERDAY.
THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BY FAR THE MOST PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. ITS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 977 MB SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
TIP OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVY SNOW WOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE FRONT END...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE TO
RAIN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OR HALF OF THE AREA WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND WARMING ABOVE 0C SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW WOULD
OCCUR ON THE FRONT END. EASY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS...EXCEPT
THAT IRONICALLY ALL OF THE GGEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WELL TO THE
EAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...THAN THE OPERATIONAL GGEM RUN.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH A LOW BOMBING TO 963 MB
OFF THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST...AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS WITH NO PRECIPITATION HERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. IT TOO
WOULD GIVE A DUMPING OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE
TO RAIN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. ITS TWIST IS THAT THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS THEN SLIDE EAST TO EXACTLY THE BENCHMARK OF
40N 70W CAUSING ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR ITS TRENDS.
-
(http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/8783/inwg1est2010122200120.png)
Here is the CMC model. Bombs nicely
Then there is the GFS :wacko:
(http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/6548/prec.png)
-
OMG! OMG! OMG! OMG!
:wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow: :wow:
(http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/4050/day5rh.gif)
-
We get a white Christmas! :D
-
Why did you just open a thread focusing on only the NE? The entire east coast from GA to MA has a chance of seeing white come Christmas and afterwards. Especially if the EURO has it's way.
Also that accuweather storm map is BS. Most models have shifted well SOUTH of the track shown there. They're just being bias to the MidAtl. HPC contradicts that track.
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jhwbgfnl_conus.gif)
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9khwbgfnl_conus.gif)
(http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbgfnl_conus.gif)
-
We get a white Christmas! :D
That may be hard. This event is taking place mostly late Saturday night.
-
Better title :P :D
-
I hope Team EURO is right about this, it helps that the NAM is joining an alliance with the EURO, the GFS and Canadian however are still kinda out to lunch, the former more than the latter. But I think they'll get it together by the 0z runs tonight since the s/w (shortwave) will be on land in Southern California by then and we'll have more reliable data to feed from. :yes: I don't know about you guys, but Atlanta hasn't had a White Christmas since 1881! This is the closest I have in all my 18 years of living here to getting one. It would make Christmas feel that much more special to me. :happy:
EDIT: Mike Bettes is going to be talking about our last White Christmas in a few, he gave the perfect hint too, "Noone on the planet right now was alive". :lol:
-
From the Washington Post
(http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/model-war.jpg)
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/white_christmas_odds_good_not.html (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/white_christmas_odds_good_not.html)
Scenario 1
The southern storm is strong enough and passes close enough to bring enough moisture into the metro region to produce a light, accumulating snow event Christmas day into Christmas night. However, it does not combine with a disturbance to the northwest in time to produce big snows. The models supporting this scenario include the Canadian model and many of the GFS ensemble members, including the operational GFS. In this scenario, there would be a slight possibility the northern disturbance would combine with the southern disturbance in time to produce heavy snow over New England.
Scenario 2
The southern storm is too weak and passes too far south to produce much more than light snow or flurries (if that) and/or dry flow from the north eats away at the moisture arriving from the southwest. It does not combine with the disturbance to the north for a big storm anywhere along the East Coast. Just a few of the GFS ensemble members and last night's UK Met model suggest this possibility.
Scenario 3
The latest European run shows a huge storm for the entire East Coast, but on December 26 into December 27 as opposed to Christmas day. Essentially, it slows the progress of the southern storm allowing it to completely phase (or combine) with the northern storm. The result is a major snow/wind storm (blizzard) in this simulation. However, this model has a bias of being too slow with disturbances along the southern branch of the jet stream - so we'd like to see other models trend toward this solution before buying it. If this model were to move the southern storm faster, it would simulate a lot less snow (maybe not even any - as it might go out to sea rather than merge with northern storm).
Which Track seems suitable?
-
From the Washington Post
([url]http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/images/model-war.jpg[/url])
Here is exactly why forecasting will never become an exact science. The European and the GFS are supposed to be the two best models, but they have entirely different physics packages built into them. One tiny little mistake at the start can cause that much difference several days out. The NAM isn't as useful to forecasters, but it's still used as a tiebreaker if the European and the GFS are way off from each other. You have no choice but to use percentages for a forecast like this scenario. I'll have to figure out what's going to happen over the next few days as I see more model runs.
Update to account for new model runs recently: I now see the GFS showing a Northeast storm, but it's on the 26th. The European model is slower and has it on the 27th. We're going to have something just past Christmas, but impacts will vary widely depending on how closely this storm hugs the East Coast.
-
TWC's Version (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/christmas-week-winter-storm_2010-12-20)
Scenario 1
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop17_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg)
Scenario 2
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop18_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg)
-
Based on some forecasters I talked to and recent model trends, it's looking like Scenario #2 is going to verify. The storm is being pushed further offshore with each model run lately, so this Northeast storm may end up not causing much impact to the mainland.
-
Blizzard Cancel
-
Blizzard Cancel
No surprise, the EURO was the outliner, no other model was showing close to what it was showing. I hope I can still see a little snow out of this, I'm not greedy I'll take what I can get at this point. I was really looking forward to having my first White Christmas here in A-Town, I might not be alive to witness something like this happen again we've had a 128 year stretch since the last one. I don't think my organs can keep pumping for that long number of years for another one. :P
-
now that scenario 2 is in effect I'd be getting 6" at least but if scenario 1 was in effect then i would've gotten 1-2'
Bummer :(
-
Once upon a time I would have rooted for a big snowstorm. Of course, those days are now long past. I've had to trudge to work in many a blizzard, and the less I have to do that the happier I am.
-
Accuweather (http://www.accuweather.com/us/ma/fall-river/02720/forecast-details.asp?fday=3)makes me laugh :lol:
14.7 Inches of Snow on the way
-
Well, there's still going to be something for the New England states based on the latest models, so I wouldn't rule out heavy snow entirely yet.
-
12z GFS brought a blizzard for everyone.
.... then HPC told us it was full of errors. :club: :club:
QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN
BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC
PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH
THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME
MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES
NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.
-
Any new updates on the storm track or would there be a better answer tomorrow?
-
18z says blizzard back on!!!!!!!
This model junk is insane. Blizzard, no blizzard, flurries, blizzard, model error, blizzard
-
Well, it's getting interesting now. The 00Z models from the WRF and GFS are showing more snow over the New England states. With all the skipping around over the past few days, I would seriously consider a middle-of-the-road approach that none of the models are showing: a pretty serious snowstorm that splits in between both scenario tracks that were given earlier on TWC. That still means there will still be some heavy snow in parts of the Northeast.
-
0z GFS wants to bring me 3-4 inches although it might be half of that because we might have mixing issues on the onset, but temps have already began dropping below out forecasted low of 32 (in the city that is) the airport is still warm about 5 degrees warmer than downtown. Also the GFS along with the RUC model and I think even the 0z NAM has been getting VERY close to wanting to phase this storm within the next 12-18 hours.
-
EPIC storm. NAM is being stubborn. Euro will be interesting to see. GFS aint to shabby this far out
-
Winter Storm Watches for much of the eastern seaboard. A lot of people are going to wake up surprised to see their forecast go from flurries to 12in
-
Preliminary reports calling for 12+ in Southern New England (Including Fall River)
(http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop10_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg)
(http://www1.whdh.com/images/weather/producer_uploads/special-560x389.jpg?12251750)
(http://images.ibsys.com/bos/images/weather/auto/web_snowfall_640x480.jpg)
-
We're going to have a major snowstorm after all. The European was correct at the onset. Now, the GFS has shown consistency over the last runs that the Northeast is going to see a good bit of snow. None of the models have done well, so I'm really starting to see why forecasters are turning to ensemble forecasting (using all the models and slightly perturbing the initial conditions to get a big suite of blended model solutions and doing statistics on them to get an idea of the spread, mean, and outliers).
-
Blizzard Warning in effect until 6PM EST Monday for Inland Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts excluding Cape Cod and the Islands
-
wxchannel via Twitter 1hr ago
wxchannel: More from NWS-Boston: Snow totals over 20" possible in RI/eastern MA. 50-60 mph gusts Sun night.
-
Winter Storm Warnings here. Expecting close to a foot
-
Blizzard warnings are in effect for the New York City region in addition to eastern Massachusetts, which Alex already mentioned above. Winter storm warnings now line up all along the East Coast. We have a real winter storm on our hands, and there's not much lead time at all to prepare for this mess. I was afraid this would happen in the back of my mind. :(
-
I'm under a blizzard warning with 16 - 20" of snow. I'm kinda scared bout this :/
-
I'm under a blizzard warning with 16 - 20" of snow. I'm kinda scared bout this :/
Just dont drive and you will be fine.
-
Well my dad ha to drive to work..
-
Well my dad ha to drive to work..
When does he get off? Things will be ok probably until noon-3pm up there
-
Like 8:30 haha and it's one of those jobs where taking a day off can hurt your employment..so he really did have to drive. Right now it's snowing heavily. According to WmGm they say that the snow will continue on tonight to late Monday
-
I am completely jealous of those being affected! Looks like it's going to be a pretty healthy snow.
I do have a question about the computer models. I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?
-
I do have a question about the computer models. I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?
I haven't heard this claim myself, but I do know that a lot of forecasters respect the European model. I'm starting to use it more and more now. It's probably the only model out there that rivals or can even beat the GFS at this time. No other models come close to these two on average for mid-latitude weather.
-
I am completely jealous of those being affected! Looks like it's going to be a pretty healthy snow.
I do have a question about the computer models. I have heard that meteorologists usually pay more attention to the European model during winter, because they can predict where a storm will move more accurately? Is this true?
The EURO *typically* does better than other models in the long term. Its usually improved and updated more often and is privately funded. If you go to AmericanWx you find dozens of mets who regard the EURO very highly. It still can and is wrong but generally gets a good idea of the picture. GFS is ok but seems to have a hard time. Of course no met uses only one model.
-
So far there is 2" on the ground and it's even before the 4pm & 7pm windows
-
11in and counting here
A FOOT!
-
14.2" as of 7am in Fall River Stayed Snow all Storm So Far!
-
18 inches and counting
-
13-15in being reported from the NWS here. This is the third biggest snowstorm on record. The largest snow in over 20 years. The second snowiest December.
-
7th largest 24-hour snowfall accumulation in the Boston area.
-
16.8" Total Snow Accumulation in Fall River.
-
Total Snow for my area: 23.7"
-
I heard that a location in NJ got over 30". This storm is going to be remembered for a long time. I really wish the models did a better job forecasting this event as we didn't give nearly enough lead time for such an epic blizzard. :no:
-
I heard that a location in NJ got over 30". This storm is going to be remembered for a long time. I really wish the models did a better job forecasting this event as we didn't give nearly enough lead time for such an epic blizzard. :no:
Was that Lyndhurst? That's not too far from the Paramus area. They got 29.7" of snow.
-
The real winners of this storm were: New Jersey
...UNION COUNTY...
RAHWAY 32.0
ELIZABETH 31.8
-
Exactly a foot was reported here. Some locations along the coast, such as Bricktown, Toms River, Neptune, Dennisville, etc received 25-30 inches!
-
I heard that a location in NJ got over 30". This storm is going to be remembered for a long time. I really wish the models did a better job forecasting this event as we didn't give nearly enough lead time for such an epic blizzard. :no:
Not that it would have mattered. People would still complain and whine like they are down here. Its not like people were starving either after Christmas. Most local news stations opted not to show weather cut ins on Christmas when the forecast was finalized so they are at fault to imo.