Christmas Blizzard? 12/24-12/27/10

[gt1racerlHDl]

TWC's Version

Scenario 1



Scenario 2

[phw115wvwx]

Based on some forecasters I talked to and recent model trends, it's looking like Scenario #2 is going to verify.  The storm is being pushed further offshore with each model run lately, so this Northeast storm may end up not causing much impact to the mainland.

[TWCToday]

Blizzard Cancel

[toxictwister00]

Blizzard Cancel

No surprise, the EURO was the outliner, no other model was showing close to what it was showing. I hope I can still see a little snow out of this, I'm not greedy I'll take what I can get at this point. I was really looking forward to having my first White Christmas here in A-Town, I might not be alive to witness something like this happen again we've had a 128 year stretch since the last one. I don't think my organs can keep pumping for that long number of years for another one. 

[gt1racerlHDl]

now that scenario 2 is in effect I'd be getting 6" at least but if scenario 1 was in effect then i would've gotten 1-2'

Bummer

[Eric]

Once upon a time I would have rooted for a big snowstorm.  Of course, those days are now long past.  I've had to trudge to work in many a blizzard, and the less I have to do that the happier I am.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Accuweather makes me laugh 

14.7 Inches of Snow on the way

[phw115wvwx]

Well, there's still going to be something for the New England states based on the latest models, so I wouldn't rule out heavy snow entirely yet.

[TWCToday]

12z GFS brought a blizzard for everyone.



.... then HPC told us it was full of errors. 



QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN
BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY
RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC
PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH
THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME
MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY.
THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES
NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Any new updates on the storm track or would there be a better answer tomorrow?

[TWCToday]

18z says blizzard back on!!!!!!!

This model junk is insane. Blizzard, no blizzard, flurries, blizzard, model error, blizzard

[phw115wvwx]

Well, it's getting interesting now.  The 00Z models from the WRF and GFS are showing more snow over the New England states.  With all the skipping around over the past few days, I would seriously consider a middle-of-the-road approach that none of the models are showing:  a pretty serious snowstorm that splits in between both scenario tracks that were given earlier on TWC.  That still means there will still be some heavy snow in parts of the Northeast.

[toxictwister00]

0z GFS wants to bring me 3-4 inches although it might be half of that because we might have mixing issues on the onset, but temps have already began dropping below out forecasted low of 32 (in the city that is) the airport is still warm about 5 degrees warmer than downtown. Also the GFS along with the RUC model and I think even the 0z NAM has been getting VERY close to wanting to phase this storm within the next 12-18 hours.

[TWCToday]

EPIC storm. NAM is being stubborn. Euro will be interesting to see. GFS aint to shabby this far out

[TWCToday]

Winter Storm Watches for much of the eastern seaboard. A lot of people are going to wake up surprised to see their forecast go from flurries to 12in