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Author Topic: My Local Forecast  (Read 3142 times)

Offline tuez13

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My Local Forecast
« on: March 24, 2009, 07:56:32 PM »
Here's what's happening in my area.  Sounds fun, right? :dunno: Oh, and the Red River in Grand Forks is expected (at this time) to crest at 51.5'.  In 1997, the Red River crested at 54.4'.  Fargo is expected to crest at around 40.1', breaking the 1997 record level of 39.57'.  Note: Look at the regional warning graphic below.

Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
225 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WALSH...OTTER TAIL...BECKER...POLK...MARSHALL...TOWNER...NELSON...
CAVALIER...PEMBINA...RAMSEY...BENSON...CASS...BARNES...TRAILL...
STEELE...GRIGGS...EDDY...SARGENT...RICHLAND...RANSOM...GRAND FORKS...
PENNINGTON...RED LAKE...GRANT...MAHNOMEN...ROSEAU AND KITTSON
COUNTIES...

RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAPID SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT OVERLAND FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE RED
RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT
THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR OVERLAND FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS WEEK. MANY ROADWAYS REMAIN UNDER WATER ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD PONDING WATER AS THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND FROZEN.

IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE RED LAKE
RIVER NEAR CROOKSTON. THIS MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. PERSONS ARE URGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST RIVER
LEVELS IN THEIR AREA. OTHER ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOWS CONTINUES TO BREAK UP THE
ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR A SPECIFIC COMMUNITY OR AN AREA ALONG A
RIVER WHERE FLOODING HAS BEEN FORECAST...IS IMMINENT...OR IS IN
PROGRESS AND IS A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.



Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...


  THIS IS AN EXTENSION FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT DRAYTON AFFECTING MARSHALL...WALSH...KITTSON AND
  PEMBINA COUNTIES

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT WAHPETON AFFECTING WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT FARGO AFFECTING CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT HALSTAD AFFECTING NORMAN AND TRAILL COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND FORKS AFFECTING POLK AND GRAND FORKS
  COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT OSLO AFFECTING MARSHALL...WALSH...POLK AND GRAND FORKS
  COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT PEMBINA AFFECTING KITTSON AND PEMBINA COUNTIES


.SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL RUNOFF HAS CAUSED THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
TO RISE TO MAJOR CATEGORIES AT FARGO AND WAHPETON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY FALL IN WAHPETON AS THE UPSTREAM RIVER LEVELS HAVE CRESTED.
THIS WAVE OF WATER COMBINED WITH THE WILD RICE RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE FARGO...MOORHEAD AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION IS OBTAINED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN...

 - DON`T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

&&

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND FORKS.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO BETWEEN 48.5 TO 52.5 FEET BY
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 52.6 FEET, WATER ON GATEWAY DRIVE APPROACH
  TO KENNEDY BRIDGE IN EAST GRAND FORKS.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28  03/29  03/30  03/31

RED RIVER
  EAST GRAND FORKS  40.0   43.9   47.3   49.7   51.0   51.4   51.5




Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...


  THIS IS AN EXTENSION FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT DRAYTON AFFECTING MARSHALL...WALSH...KITTSON AND
  PEMBINA COUNTIES

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT WAHPETON AFFECTING WILKIN AND RICHLAND COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT FARGO AFFECTING CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT HALSTAD AFFECTING NORMAN AND TRAILL COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND FORKS AFFECTING POLK AND GRAND FORKS
  COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT OSLO AFFECTING MARSHALL...WALSH...POLK AND GRAND FORKS
  COUNTIES

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
  RED RIVER AT PEMBINA AFFECTING KITTSON AND PEMBINA COUNTIES


.SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL RUNOFF HAS CAUSED THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
TO RISE TO MAJOR CATEGORIES AT FARGO AND WAHPETON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY FALL IN WAHPETON AS THE UPSTREAM RIVER LEVELS HAVE CRESTED.
THIS WAVE OF WATER COMBINED WITH THE WILD RICE RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE FARGO...MOORHEAD AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION IS OBTAINED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN...

 - DON`T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.

THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.

&&

1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER AT OSLO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.9 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO BETWEEN 36 AND 39 FEET BY
  MONDAY.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 37.0 FEET, WATER AFFECTS THE CANADIAN
  PACIFIC RAILROAD TRACKS EAST OF OSLO.

&&

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28  03/29  03/30  03/31

RED RIVER
  OSLO              33.6   35.4   36.4   37.2   37.7   37.9   37.9




Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND 2 TO
5 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY WITH 6 TO
8 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ROSEAU AND
BAUDETTE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
AND THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE TRICKY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE GRAND
FORKS...MAYVILLE...FARGO...AND HALSTAD AREAS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. ROADS WILL BECOME VERY ICY...FIRST ACROSS
THE GRAND FORKS AREA...AND BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FARGO AREA. SNOW
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.



Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...AREAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY MORNING.

THE THREAT FOR OVERLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2009, 08:14:54 PM by tuez13 »

Offline lfmusiclover

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2009, 08:56:24 PM »
I'm gonna move this thread to the weather board.  :biggrin:

Offline tuez13

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2009, 09:36:15 PM »
lol, thanks!  I wasn't 100% sure which section to post in but I wanted to share!

Also, the Winter Weather Advisory was canceled about an hour ago and has been replaced with this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
ROSEAU AND BAUDETTE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE TRICKY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. ROADS WILL BECOME VERY
ICY. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TENTH TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE.

SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

phw115wvwx

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2009, 07:57:36 AM »
I swear that the Dakotas have some of the most extreme weather at times as there's no notable terrain to block the flow from either Canada or the Gulf of Mexico, so you constantly get clashes between hot and cold air masses to produce these kind of storms. :blink:  At least the worst of this storm appears to be about over for you, but I'm sure that the flooding concerns will linger over the next several days due to the high crests you've mentioned.  How much snow and wind did you get around your area, and how do you handle all of these extremes in the Dakotas? :huh:

Offline tuez13

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2009, 08:31:55 AM »
Today, we're expected to receive another 2-4" of snow on top of the roughly 5" of snow received last night.  Peak wind gusts were around 40-45mph last night and will remain around the 40mph mark throughout the day.  Many area schools have canceled classes, city offices have closed and No Travel is advised across the eastern third of North Dakota, and western quarter of Minnesota.  Snow plows have been out attempting to clear the streets but they become clogged again with 1-2' drifts relatively shortly after going through an area.  The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 3pm.  Here is the latest weather graphic forecast from the GF NWS Office:


Personally, I enjoy living in ND because the weather is constantly changing...by the time you get sick of a certain type of weather (normally snow storms), the seasons change and give you something completely different to deal with.  I certainly love when summer rolls around to see severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.  It certainly beats 2' of snow!  :thrilled:   The western half of the state is better about the terrain...it provides some awesome downsloping winds to bring us some awesome hot air and the occasional Colorado Low...which normally provides us with the major/high-precip snow storms versus the Alberta Clipper storms which just bring freezing temps and 1/2" of snow or so.  Needless to say, ND is pretty sweet!  :biggrin:

phw115wvwx

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2009, 06:16:16 PM »
Well, your area is a great example of the saying, "If you don't like the weather now, just wait five minutes." :bleh:  Thanks for this nice report on the snow and winds in the aftermath of this storm, and I hope you see some warm weather very soon in North Dakota! B)

Offline tuez13

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Re: My Local Forecast
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2009, 08:30:24 PM »
Definitely is!!!  I'll be sure to post when I'm out chasing thunderstorms & tornadoes.  :D