2012 Presidential Election

[Mr. Rainman]

Ok...I'm going to start this and hope it doesn't blow up. Let's try and keep the discussion polite.

Who would you cast your vote for tomorrow for the White House - incumbent Barack Obama, or challenger Mitt Romney?

It looks like it's going to be a very tight race, and early voting is already a mess in Ohio and Florida. I heard some reports that people were waiting up to 7 hours in some parts of Florida just to vote? 

[toxictwister00]

Tomorrow will be the first Presidential Election where I will be old enough to vote and I'm pretty excited about it.  I'm voting for President Obama/V.P Biden

I made up an electoral map on my prediction for the results tomorrow. My prediction is Obama will win 303 electoral votes and Romney will win 235 electoral votes.



Tossup or Leaning States to go to Obama
Ohio
Colorado (This one was hard for me to decide)
Virginia
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Iowa

Tossup or Leaning States to go to Romney
North Carolina
Florida (This one was VERY hard for me to decide)

For those who know Chuck Todd, he's a political analyst with NBC and he said something yesterday that I thought was very interesting. The discussion was about how the Republicans have dominated the South and he said that he was surprised that Obama didn't campaign more in my home state of Georgia because if he did he may have been able to make Georgia a swing state also. I know the Black vote in early voting has exceeded 2008 levels here this year so it may not be outside of the realm of possibility that it could be closer here as well.

[Trevor]

I too think Florida and Ohio will be extremely close, but I think they will both end up going Romney. I still think Ohio will be extremely close, and could end up going Obama, which would give him a second term. So, as it usually is, I think Ohio will end up being the deciding factor in this election.

[Mr. Rainman]

Tavores, your map is exactly the same as mine. However, Florida is getting really really close and there is still a chance Obama could win it. If Obama does win Florida, then Romney is finished, hands down.

At this point, I see no reason for Ohio to not go to Obama. Every single poll out of Ohio since Nov. 1 has favored the President and the latest had him leading with a margin of +5.

[phw115wvwx]

Regardless of who wins, we need to all work together in the next four years far better than what both parties have shown lately.  Vote for who you feel is best, but please don't turn this thread into a flame war under any circumstances.

[toxictwister00]

Tavores, your map is exactly the same as mine. However, Florida is getting really really close and there is still a chance Obama could win it. If Obama does win Florida, then Romney is finished, hands down.

At this point, I see no reason for Ohio to not go to Obama. Every single poll out of Ohio since Nov. 1 has favored the President and the latest had him leading with a margin of +5.

You're right, it still could swing in Obama's favor and frankly if it did, I personally don't think he needs Ohio to win, but I'm still thinking in the end it's going to go to Romney by a small margin of votes.

Also the Romney campaign is aware that Ohio may not go for them which is why they're trying to put Pennsylvania in play as an insurance policy for a possible Ohio loss. Unfortunately for Romney if history repeats itself it's not going to work. Bush Sr., Dole, G.W. Bush, and McCain campaigned within a few days before election day in PA and all lost PA to their democratic challenger/incumbent.

Lastly, women will surely be out in full force. They've been the ones with targets on their backs by both sides this entire campaign.

[TWCmatthew]

Some people have been saying that PA is a tossup state. Actually, Obama has been holding steady in PA, with exception of Romney gaining a bit of momentum, but not enough to win it. I agree with Tavores' map, however, Romney also has a good chance of winning Colorado as well. At this point I think Obama will win the electoral college with anywhere from 289-303, and also winning the popular vote by a small margin.

[Mr. Rainman]

Latest prediction markets and blogs are all favoring Obama by some degree. Of particular note is Nate Silver, a statistician who called 49 of the 50 states correctly in 2008, as well as all the senate races. His last prediction has Obama winning 314 electoral votes with Florida ever so slightly looking blue. His chance for Obama winning: 91.4%.

[Charismatic Applesauce]

If I could vote, I would definitely pick Obama. A few weeks ago, I had thought that Romney's 47% comment had really hurt him in the race. I guess I'm eating crow now, judging by how close the race has been lately.

[texasstooge]

I just voted last week. Now I wait.

[Mr. Rainman]

For those of you wondering when results will start filtering in - the earliest will be at 6 PM EST with Kentucky and Indiana tallying their votes first.

[Eric]

I voted for Obama (absentee ballot), and I think he will win the election, but by the very slimmest of margins.

[phw115wvwx]

I just cast my vote today, and that's all you need to know.  I don't know why everyone has forgotten voting etiquette I learned years ago that you shouldn't tell other people your vote during an election.   It's the first time that I've ever voted with a machine as all my previous ballots were simply paper.

[toxictwister00]

For those of you wondering when results will start filtering in - the earliest will be at 6 PM EST with Kentucky and Indiana tallying their votes first.

I always found the poll closing times like that to be so weird that it's so mixed up by states in the same region/time zone.

[Localonthe8s]

I didn't vote this year