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Author Topic: Round 1: Casper, WY  (Read 12326 times)

Offline Metarvo

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #60 on: May 16, 2013, 08:11:55 AM »
I just knew this would happen.  :rolleyes:

Casper, WY
Friday, May 17, 2013

High Temperature: 85 F
Low Temperature: 46 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #61 on: May 16, 2013, 05:13:45 PM »
Casper, WY (KCPR)
Friday, May 17, 2013

High: 85F
Low: 45F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00


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Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #62 on: May 16, 2013, 06:41:45 PM »
Casper, WY - May 17, 2013

High: 86F
Low: 45F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
« Last Edit: May 16, 2013, 11:11:53 PM by TWCmatthew »

Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #63 on: May 16, 2013, 10:52:48 PM »
Friday, May 17, 2013
KCPR Forecast:

High Temperature: 83F
Low Temperature: 45F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #64 on: May 17, 2013, 06:25:49 AM »
Everyone has finished this round of forecasting.  Thanks for your participation!  I don't know why all of you continue to put a 0% chance of precipitation when showers have been around for the past couple days.  More rain arrived late in Day 9, but it only measured a trace.  However, 0.08" of rain has fallen in Day 10, which means everyone has already busted again for the final day. 

If I can make a suggestion for you four in future rounds, you shouldn't put 0% chance POPs when there's any remote chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm, especially in the mountains where orographic lifting can easily trigger them.  It's much better to put low non-zero POPs as that strategy will always score better over the long run than just 0% all the time, and it's also far more realistic as a forecast.  Were you all really 100% confident that it would not rain?  I would have had 20-30% POPs these last few days if playing this round, which would have made a huge difference.  I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm upset, but I'm really trying to help you see how to forecast and score better.  Here are the Day 9 results:

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 9 Verification

High:  78F
Low:  47F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00" (Trace)

phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #65 on: May 18, 2013, 03:52:30 AM »
The last day featured an odd sight as the low actually occurred right before midnight to end the verification period.  I already discussed the precipitation issue in the previous post, so there is no need for me to repeat it.  Here are the Day 10 results and the final leaderboard for Round 1:

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 10 Verification

High:  81F
Low:  45F
POP:  100%
Precipitation:  0.08"


Congratulations to Craig as he is the winner of the Casper, WY round!  He will be picking the next city, and I will put up a new topic when we are ready to start Round 2 of this contest.  Craig, please PM me with your choice that is not in the Mountain Time Zone as I started this contest there, and you are welcome to ask me for any help.