Long Island Weather

[TWCCraig]

Latest GFS model run has it out to sea 

[TWCCraig]

... Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am EDT Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect until 9 am EDT Wednesday.

* Locations... Rockland and Westchester counties in New York... the
New York City Metro area... extreme northeast New Jersey... Long
Island and southern Connecticut.

* Hazards... dense fog.

* Visibilities... 1/4 to 1/2 mile and occasionally lower.

* Timing... through tonight into early Wednesday morning.

* Impacts... very low visibility.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you in case a sudden stop is needed.

[TWCCraig]

I use this scale in some of my posts. It's made by me to determine the strength of non-tropical low pressure systems.

Code: [Select]

Relative Wind Storm Severity Scale (RWSSS)

Cat 6. - Sustained Winds of 50mph+ or gusts to hurricane force or exceeding
Cat 5. - Sustained Winds of 50mph+ or gusts to 70mph or higher
Cat 4. - Sustained Winds of 40mph+ or gusts to 60mph or higher
Cat 3. - Sustained Winds of 35mph+ or gusts to 55mph or higher
Cat 2. - Sustained Winds of 30mph+ or gusts to 50mph or higher
Cat 1. - Sustained Winds of 25mph+ or gusts to 45mph or higher


Notable Recent Wind Storms:
Cat 6. - March 13,2010 gusts of 75mph reported
Cat 5. - December 26-27,2010 gusts of 70mph reported
Cat 4. - December 7-8,2011 gusts of 69mph were reported
Cat 4. - December 27,2011 gusts of 63mph were reported
Cat 4. - April 22-23,2012 sustained winds of 46mph(KLGA) and gusts of 58mph were reported
Cat 3. - October 28-29,2011 gusts of 55mph were reported
Cat 3. - February 25,2012 sustained winds of 39mph and gusts of 59mph were reported

The RWSSS is meant for use in determining the severity of non-tropical low pressure systems
and is not associated with severe weather, ex. Tornadoes, Straight Line Wind etc.
When determining the serverity, use only official observed weather data from within a 50 mile radius to your location; meaning
that if there is wind gust higher in another place that's greater than 50 miles from your location, that weather data would
be invalid for use in determining the serverity of the wind storm. Areas with frequently high wind (Ex. Mt. Washington), would
not count because those areas normally recieve high winds.

[TWCCraig]

There's a 20% chance of tropical development on that low pressure just off the coast from the Carolinas. I don't think it will develop. I'm not worried about that. What I'm concerned about is the possible development of a sub-tropical cyclone later in the week. This storm that the GFS is depicting is expected to head north from the eastern Caribbean, with a well defined warm core at its center. It's expected to remain off shore; it might bring some rain showers and gusty winds to places in eastern Massachusetts like Cape Cod. The eastern side of this storm is expected to be stronger than the western side; the eastern side looks to have more precipitation and with a tighter pressure gradient due to a strong high east of the storm which would make the eastern side stronger. If the track doesn't change, we can only expect a few showers and strong surf from this, but if the track goes any more inland, and the winds might increase. We'll have to see.

[Trevor]

There's a 20% chance of tropical development on that low pressure just off the coast from the Carolinas. I don't think it will develop.

[TWCCraig]

There's a 20% chance of tropical development on that low pressure just off the coast from the Carolinas. I don't think it will develop.

I believe I'm fully aware of this. No need to rub it in my face

[Trevor]

Nonononono....sorry if you took that the wrong way. I was just showing you in case you hadn't seen. I wasn't trying to be rude at all.

[TWCCraig]

Nonononono....sorry if you took that the wrong way. I was just showing you in case you hadn't seen. I wasn't trying to be rude at all.

Oh ok. Sorry!! 

[TWCCraig]

Interesting. Never have I seen dense fog advisories issued only for bodies of water 

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
814 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...


ANZ350-353-355-221000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.MF.Y.0013.120522T0014Z-120522T1400Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-120523T1000Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
814 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE.

* TIMING...DENSE FOG THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAZARDOUS
  SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO
  REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO WEDNESDAY.

[TWCCraig]

NWS forecast for upcoming days. 80's for Memorial Day Weekend, I think it will be slightly warmer than they are expecting. The NWS forecast low for Memorial Day is around 70°F!

[TWCCraig]

Areas of fog... locally dense... are expected to overspread the
ocean facing coastal communities of New York City and Long Island
through this evening. Visibilities in fog are expected to range
mostly from 1/2 to 1 mile... however it may lower to 1/4 mile or
less in spots.

If you are driving... slow down and use your low beam
headlights. Leave plenty of distance ahead of you in case a sudden
stop is needed.

[TWCCraig]

... Dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am EDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect until 10 am EDT this morning.

* Locations... Long Island... especially near shorelines.

* Hazards... dense fog.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... until 10 am this morning.

* Impacts... very poor visibility.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you in case a sudden stop is needed.

[TWCCraig]

This line of showers and thunderstorms could weaken significantly by the time it gets to us because of the cooler ocean water, hence the reason why we are not under a severe thunderstorm watch. Sea Breeze enhanced winds out ahead of this front are creating gusty SSW winds with gusts 25-40mph.

[TWCCraig]

We got a storm on our hands tonight! Heavy Rain & Wind. Winds sustained around 20-25mph G to 30-40mph. Pretty late season storm, usually we don't have Rain & Wind storms this late in the year.

[TWCCraig]

Wow, definitely one of the strongest storms I've ever experienced since Hurricane Irene. Constant wind gusts up to 50mph, VERY heavy rain coming down horizontal, fierce lightning, visibility down to 0.2 miles. It was like the Apocalypse.  It was like a hurricane. Rainfall rates of 1.09" an hour, flooding, isolated power outages, branches and some trees down. I recorded video of it last night, but my camera sucks in the dark so it really only recorded sound, which is still pretty good because the rain & wind combined were very loud. I'm surprised we didn't loose power. Imagine a 40-50mph down-burst thunderstorm that lasted 6 hours, that's what it was like here last night. I'll get and post observation data once the data becomes available.