Long Island Weather

[TWCCraig]

This is interesting. Another view of how extreme this March warm spell was. All dates in 2012 have been bolded.

Islip Area  (ThreadEx Station)
Extremes
Highest Daily Minimum Temperature (degrees F)
Days: 3/1 - 3/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1984-2012

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1      55  3/28/1998
  2      54  3/21/2012
  3      53  3/22/2012
  4      52  3/31/1998, 3/17/1990
  6      51  3/23/2012
  7      50  3/29/2003
  8      49  3/13/2012, 3/22/2010, 3/22/2003

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.

This station's record may include data from more than one, possibly incompatible,
locations. It reflects the longest available record for the Islip Area

[TWCCraig]

Also more interesting:

[TEMPERATURE DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 47.8
DPTR FM NORMAL:   9.7
HIGHEST:    75 ON 23
LOWEST:     23 ON  6

[TWCCraig]

Haven't had one of these in a long time!

... Red flag warning in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the
lower Hudson Valley... New York City... Long Island... and northeast
New Jersey...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a red flag
warning... which is in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* Affected area... the lower Hudson Valley... New York City... Long
Island... and northeast New Jersey.

* Wind... 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Humidity... dropping into the lower to mid 20s.

* Impacts... because of the meteorological conditions... any fires
that develop will likely spread rapidly. Use extreme caution if
performing outdoor burning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds... low
relative humidity... and dry fuels will create explosive fire
growth potential.

[TWCCraig]

HOLY!  Now we got a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow. Look at tomorrow's forecast RH values below!

... Red flag warning remains in effect until 9 PM EDT this
evening...
... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
Tuesday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Fire Weather
Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon.

* Affected area... southeast New York and northeast New Jersey.

* Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
today... and northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph on
Tuesday.

* Timing... into this evening... and again during the day on
Tuesday.

* Relative humidity... as low as 15 to 20 percent this
afternoon... and 10 to 15 percent on Tuesday.

* Impacts... any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Use
extreme caution if performing outdoor burning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring... and a Fire Weather Watch means that
critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur.
A combination of strong winds... low relative humidity... and dry
fuels will create explosive fire growth potential.

[TWCCraig]

Rainfall is critical when fire weather is present because it tells how moist the soil is:

[TWCCraig]

Relative humidities will range between 30 and 40 percent today.
Some isolated areas may dip below 30 percent... but it is not
expected to be widespread. Wind speeds will range between 25 and
30 mph. This will aid in the spread of wildfires... should any develop.

[TWCCraig]

These are in my own words:


**Warmest and Driest March set on record at Islip NY

The monthly total of 0.99" of precipitation was 3.45" below average
*Previous driest March: 2006 - 1.08"

The monthly mean temperature of 47.3°F was 8.0°F above average
Previous Warmest March: 2010 - 45.1°F

Islip's record date back to 1984 only. According to other weather stations around the area with larger climate records, the warmest March was set in 1945, even still, March 2012 was warmer than March 1945.

[TWCCraig]

My Official April Forecast:

[TWCCraig]

From the NWS:


March 2012 was another record breaking month across the area for
both temperature and precipitation. Below are the highest average
temperature and lowest precipitation records for the month of March
for our 6 climate stations.

... Central Park...

Average temperature: 50.9 normal: 42.5

1. 51.1 1945
2. 50.9 2012
3. 49.8 1946

Precipitation: 0.96 normal: 4.36

1. 0.80 2006
2. 0.90 1885
3. 0.94 1966
4. 0.96 2012

Snowfall: 0 normal: 3.6

Other years with no snow in march: 1878, 1894, 1903


... Kennedy Airport...

Average temperature: 48.5 normal: 41.6

1. 48.5 2012
2. 47.7 1973
3. 47.1 2010

Precipitation: 1.13 normal: 3.78

1. 0.95 1981
2. 1.13 2012
3. 1.22 2006

Snow: 0 normal: 3.5


... LaGuardia Airport...

Average temperature: 50.8 normal: 42.2

1. 50.8 2012
2. 49.8 1945
3. 48.5 1946

Precipitation: 1.00 normal: 3.97

1. 0.74 2006
2. 0.87 1966
3. 1.00 2012

Snow: 0 normal: 4.4


... Newark Airport...

Average temperature: 51.3 normal: 42.1

1. 51.3 2012
2. 50.6 1945
3. 48.8 1946

Precipitation: 1.05 normal: 4.18

1. 0.79 2006
2. 1.05 2012
3. 1.10 1981

Snow: 0 normal: 4.6


... Islip Airport...

Average temperature: 47.3 normal: 39.3

1. 47.3 2012
2. 45.1 2010
3. 43.2 2000

Precipitation: 0.99 normal: 4.44

1. 0.99 2012
2. 1.08 2006
3. 1.32 1995

Snow: T normal: 4.5


... Bridgeport Airport...

Average temperature: 47.1 normal: 39.3

1. 47.1 2012
2. 45.0 2010
3. 43.2 2000

Precipitation: 1.04 normal: 4.05

1. 0.69 1981
2. 0.85 2006
3. 1.04 2012

Snow: T normal: 5.0

[TWCCraig]

... Enhanced threat for the spread of brush fires late this morning
into this evening...

Despite some light rain over the weekend... the region remains
very dry. Winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity
values dropping into the teens this afternoon will continue to
allow fine fuels to dry. The combination of winds... low humidity
and drying of the fine fuels such as grasses and brush will result
in an elevated risk for the spread of wildfires late this morning
though sunset.

[TWCCraig]

... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening for northeast New Jersey... southeast New York and
southwest Connecticut...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for northeast New Jersey... southeast New York and southwest
Connecticut... which is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening.

* Affected area... southeast New York... northeast New Jersey and
southwest Connecticut.

* Winds... northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative humidity... between 20 to 30 percent.

* Timing... late Wednesday morning through early evening.

* Impacts... any fires that start will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.

[TWCCraig]

The official Red Flag Warning:

... Red flag warning remains in effect from 11 am this morning to
9 PM EDT this evening for the tri state area...

* affected area... the entire tri state area.

* Winds... northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

* Timing... late this morning through early evening.

* Relative humidity... below 30 percent... but as low as 15 to 20
percent this afternoon.

* Impacts... any fires that start will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds... low
relative humidity... and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

[TWCCraig]

Northwest winds gusting up to 20 mph... relative humidities
dropping to near 20 percent... and dry fine fuels such as grasses
and brush will result in an elevated risk for the spread of
wildfires from late this morning through sunset.
Similar conditions are also likely again on Friday and Saturday.


Goodman

[TWCCraig]

You can tell it's wildfire season here in the Northeast just by the amount of fire weather warnings and special statements issued in the past 30 days. But yet again, a fire weather watch is in effect.


... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through
Friday evening for northeastern New Jersey and southeastern New York...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Fire Weather
Watch... which is in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening.

* Affected area... northeastern New Jersey... southeastern New
York... and Long Island.

* Winds... NW 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative humidity... lowering to 15 to 20 percent during the afternoon.

* Timing... Friday afternoon.

* Impacts... any fires that start may spread rapidly. Outdoor
burning is not recommended.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for further updates regarding this
potential.


This will be the 4th Red Flag Warning in the past 2 weeks.

[TWCCraig]

Fire Weather Watch Canceled... Coastal Flood Statement and a Special Weather Statement have been put into effect.


... Tides will touch minor coastal flood benchmarks during this
evenings high tide...

* locations... coasts of New York Harbor and the South Shore bays
of western Long Island

* tidal departures... tidal departures of around one-half of a foot
will bring tidal levels to near that of coastal flood
benchmarks. Isolated locations could exceed coastal flood
benchmarks by a few tenths of a foot... especially along the South
Shore bays of western Long Island.

* Timing... around high tide this evening.

* Impacts... .widespread minor coastal flooding is not anticipated
at this time.


... Enhanced risk of wildfire spread into this afternoon...

North to northwest winds gusting up to around 20 mph... relative
humidities dropping to 15 to 20 percent... and dry fine fuels such as
grasses and brush will result in an elevated risk for the spread
of wildfires into this afternoon. Similar conditions are likely
this weekend as well.