Long Island Weather

[TWCCraig]

Wow, it has been a very warm October so far. Highs in the 70's and 80's and lows in the 50's and 60's. So far the average monthly temperature for October has been warmer than September's average monthly temperature.

Average Monthly Temp (Oct): 66.8°F
Dept. From Average (Oct): +8.0°F

Average Monthly Temp (Sep): 66.3°F
Dept. From Average (Sep): +0.7°F

[TWCCraig]

Long Island still holding on to the 50°F+ temperatures while the rest of the tri-state is dipping into the 40's already. This Columbus day weekend will be a big contrast compared to last year.

Columbus Day Weekend 2011:
Saturday Oct. 8th: Sunny - High: 78°F Low: 49°F
Sunday Oct. 9th: Sunny - High: 85°F Low: 55°F 
Monday Oct. 10th: Partly Cloudy - High: 83°F Low: 56°F[/color]

Columbus Day Weekend 2012:
Saturday Oct. 6th: Partly Cloudy - High: 77°F Low: 53°F
Sunday Oct. 7th: Rain - High: 56°F Low: 44°F
Monday Oct. 9th(forecast): Sunny - High: 61°F Low: 45°F

[TWCCraig]

Record low temperatures are in jeopardy tonight, even some of the long term records may fall tonight as a recording breaking cold snap comes through tonight into tomorrow. NWS has us down to 36°F for tonight. One thing that will set Long Island back is the winds. Winds will be North at 5 to mph off the Long Island Sound which should keep all of LI above freezing if the winds don't lighten up. If the winds do lighten up, then the Pine Barrens should drop below freezing and the rest should still stay above freezing. Here's a map of my forecast lows for tonight.

Key:
Green: Mid 40's
Light Green: Low 40's
Light Blue: Mid to Upper 30's
Moderate Blue: Upper 20's to Low 30's
Dark Blue: Low 20's to Upper 20's

[TWCCraig]

000
SXUS71 KOKX 131224
RERJFK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
824 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 37 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 40 SET IN 1988.

000
SXUS71 KOKX 131224
RERISP

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
824 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE 32 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 1987.

000
SXUS71 KOKX 131225
RERBDR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
825 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 33 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 1981.

000
SXUS71 KOKX 131223
REREWR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
823 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 SET IN 1934.

One of the earliest freezes on record for KISP.

[TWCCraig]

It's colder in Florida than it is here! In fact, all of the southeast is colder than it is here, with the exception of Southern Florida and extreme Southern Texas.




... Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am EDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect until 9 am EDT this morning.

* Locations... northeast New Jersey... most of the lower Hudson
Valley and Long Island... southern New York City.

* Hazards... reduced visibilities.

* Visibilities... one-quarter mile or less.

* Timing... through 9 am.

* Impacts... reduced visibilities will make driving hazardous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you in case a sudden stop is needed.

[TWCCraig]

Wow! Never thought we would see this towards the end of October/ early November! As the tropical system makes it's approach to New England, it should transition into a cold core then weaken. Either way it's going to be very strong. GFS has this storm down to 962mb for it's strongest approach to New England. Still far out but it should be interesting what the models do with this storm. ECMWF also has a similar track to the GFS.

Edit: Model Fantasy Land Predictions:
Long Island:
Winds: ENE 50-70mph G to 100mph
Precip: 1/2' to 2' of rain (That's not inches, that's feet)

Obviously this should change, but it's odd that most of reliable global models have similar tracks and strengths.

[TWCCraig]

18z GFS Central NJ landfall. Sustained surface winds here would be around 50-55kts.

[TWCCraig]

My wind forecast map like I do usually, but this time I have never used so much of the map. I did this to show Sandy's possible extensive wind field.

[TWCCraig]

This is the first time I've ever seen a hurricane force wind warning issued for our area.

NWS forecast(may need to be updated with higher wind forecasts):



Current Sustained Hurricane Force Wind Probability: 5-10% (NHC)


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
281000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T2200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
436 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
  SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS OF LONG DURATION.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
  MPH MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING EAST 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 TO
  80 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
  35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY EXISTS.
  PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE WIND DAMAGE. WINDS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND SNAPPING OFF LARGE TREE
  BRANCHES. POWER OUTAGES COULD LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEBRIS
  WILL BLOCK SOME ROADS. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND
  HOMES IS POSSIBLE. WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS COULD BE
  BROKEN BY FLYING DEBRIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS
ACCORDING TO YOUR DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND
BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

$$

GOODMAN


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

* WINDS...EAST 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT.

* SEAS...23 TO 28 FEET.

* TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
  INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
  FORCE ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KT OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT
THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME
TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. MONITOR WEATHER
BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

$$


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
281000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0002.121029T1000Z-121030T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
458 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW
  JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

* FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 2 AND 6
  INCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND IN
  AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN BANDS. RAINFALL RATES
  OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

* THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR
  DRAINAGE FLOODING MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY...WITH FLOODING OF
  FLASHY...FAST RESPONDING STREAMS LIKELY AS WELL. THE URBAN AND
  POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
  LEAVES CLOGGING DRAINS...AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
  TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LARGER MAIN STEM RIVER
  FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
  THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

[TWCCraig]

I think the winds have a good chance of even being higher than the forecast in the high wind warning. Still sticking with my wind map I made earlier.

... High Wind Warning in effect from 6 am Monday to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Monday to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... southeast New York... northeast New Jersey and
southern Connecticut.

* Hazards... damaging winds of long duration.

* Winds... east 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. Gusts up to
80 mph for elevated roadways and elevated buildings... especially
Monday afternoon and night.

* Timing... Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Strongest
winds are expected Monday afternoon and night.

* Impacts... a significant threat to life and property exists.
Prepare for the possibility of moderate wind damage. Winds will
be capable of Downing trees and snapping off large tree
branches. Power outages could last at least several days. Debris
will block some roads. Minor structural damage to buildings and
homes is possible. Windows in high rise buildings could be
broken by flying debris.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Now is the time to begin preparing your home or business
according to your disaster plan. Listen for possible warnings and
be ready to evacuate if necessary. Heed the advice of local
officials and comply with any orders that are issued.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...
please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your
location as further described by your local National Weather
Service office and your local emergency management.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

[TWCCraig]

They upped the winds! I believe this is the longest duration high wind warning I've ever seen for here.

... High Wind Warning in effect from 6 am Monday to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Monday to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... southeast New York... northeast New Jersey and
southern Connecticut.

* Hazards... damaging winds of long duration.

* Winds... northeast 35 to 55 mph sustained with gusts 70 to 80
mph... strongest Monday afternoon and evening. Highest winds over
elevated roadways... tall buildings... higher elevations and
exposed areas including the shore. Winds will shift southeast
late Monday night.

* Timing... Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Strongest
winds are expected Monday afternoon and night.

* Impacts... a significant threat to life and property exists.
Prepare for the possibility of moderate wind damage. Winds will
be capable of Downing trees and snapping off large tree
branches. Power outages could last at least several days. Debris
will block some roads. Minor structural damage to buildings and
homes is possible. Windows in high rise buildings could be
broken by flying debris.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Now is the time to begin preparing your home or business. Heed
the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are
issued.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...
please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your
location as further described by your local emergency management.

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.


Hurricane Warnings for waters just south of Long Island:

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
 HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
 MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
 
 
 ANZ083-ANZ272-ANZ273-ANZ370-281630-
 SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...FROM THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO HUDSON
 CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
 NANTUCKET ISLAND...OUT TO 1000 FM
 400 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
 
 HURRICANE WARNING
 

 TODAY
 NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT.
 SEAS 6 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT...HIGHEST SW. A CHANCE OF
 SHOWERS.

 TONIGHT
 NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS
 BUILDING TO 18 TO 26 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST S. RAIN
 DEVELOPING.

 MON
 E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT...HIGHEST W. SEAS
 BUILDING TO 25 TO 35 FT. RAIN WITH ISOLATED TSTMS OCCASIONALLY
 REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

 MON NIGHT
 E TO SE WINDS 50 TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 50
 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 20 TO 26 FT LATE...HIGHEST W. ISOLATED
 SHOWERS.

 TUE
 SE TO S WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT FAR W
 TO 35 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 TO 18 FT.

 WED
 WINDS BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 16
 FT.

 THU
 SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT.
 $$


COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ353-282045-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
448 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT...BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...INCREASING
TO 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO
15 FT...BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...E WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. SEAS 15 TO
20 FT...BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT. SEAS 22 TO
27 FT...SUBSIDING TO 20 TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.TUE...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT...SUBSIDING TO 14 TO
19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO
15 FT...SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.THU...W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

[TWCCraig]

Wind gusts increase in text based forecast:

[TWCCraig]

OMG! Now forecast wind gusts could be up to 85mph!!!! 

... High Wind Warning remains in effect from 6 am Monday to 6 PM
EDT Tuesday...

* locations... southeast New York... northeast New Jersey and
southern Connecticut.

* Hazards... damaging winds of long duration.

* Winds... northeast 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 85
mph Monday afternoon... becoming southeast Monday night.

* Timing... Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Strongest
winds are expected Monday afternoon and night.

* Impacts... a significant threat to life and property exists.
Damaging winds are expected. Winds will be capable of Downing
trees and snapping off large tree branches. Power outages
could be widespread and last at least several days. Debris
will block some roads. Most poorly anchored Mobile homes will
be damaged. Other homes may have damage to shingles... siding...
gutters and windows... especially if these items are not
properly secured. Loose outdoor items will become airborne...
causing additional damage and possible injury.Windows in high
rise buildings could be broken by flying debris.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Make the final preparations to protect life and property. Rush to
completion the hardening of your home or business by closing
shutters and bracing garage doors. Heed the advice of local
officials and comply with any orders that are issued.

For additional precautionary and preparedness information...
please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your
location as further described by your local emergency management.

[TWCCraig]

From NWS forecast discussion:

SANDY APPEARS TO BE GETTING READY TO TURN TOWARD THE NW IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPSTREAM BLOCKING AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
WESTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND AS THE STORM FIRST
UNDERGOES FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH AND THEN MERGES WITH A DIGGING
CLOSED LOW TO ITS WEST. THIS INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY WILL
ENABLE SANDY TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY...TRANSFORMING
INTO A SEVERE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAKING LANDFALL ON THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ALREADY LARGE
WIND FIELD AROUND SANDY SHOULD EXPAND AND INTENSIFY TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND 40-55 MPH THIS EVENING. ALL NWP IN PRETTY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A BAND OF VERY STRONG
925 MB WINDS OF 70-90 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS.
A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER BELOW THAT...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE
GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SANDY...COULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STRONG
WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN...SO AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED IN NE-E FLOW DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF
SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE
UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS
EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN
TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM
AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA
CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS
90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN
CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT.

[TWCCraig]

Upped the winds even more!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

CTZ009>012-NYZ078>081-292215-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121030T2200Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
742 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG
  ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS OF LONG DURATION.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS 80 TO 85 MPH. GUSTS UP
  TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING COASTLINES THIS
  EVENING.

* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
  EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY EXISTS.
  DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING
  TREES AND SNAPPING OFF LARGE TREE BRANCHES. POWER OUTAGES
  COULD BE WIDESPREAD AND LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEBRIS
  WILL BLOCK SOME ROADS. MOST POORLY ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES WILL
  BE DAMAGED. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
  GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE ITEMS ARE NOT
  PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...
  CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.WINDOWS IN HIGH
  RISE BUILDINGS COULD BE BROKEN BY FLYING DEBRIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EVERYONE
SHOULD BE MOVING TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. ONCE INSIDE...ENSURE ALL
WINDOWS AND DOORS ARE SECURED BEFORE DANGEROUS WINDS ARRIVE.

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY. KEEP CELL PHONE AND
INTERNET COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

BE AWARE THAT THE LOSS OF COMMERCIAL POWER CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY.
KEEP EMERGENCY GEAR HANDY.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

$$