Long Island Weather

[TWCCraig]

My forecast winds for the Sep 18th Storm.



From NWS:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
TSTMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING.

[TWCCraig]

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT STORM TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF DOES REMAIN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THE
MODEL TRIES TO LINGER THE BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE CWA. WITH
RESPECT TO WIND...THE 00Z NAM IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE FIELDS FOR
THE EVENT. IT IS NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 40KT BL
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO.
STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL IN CONVECTION AS 925 HPA WINDS IN THE GFS
ARE 50-55KT. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FCST...AND THE HWO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE STORM.

A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE AND INTO THE UPSTATE OF NY BY
TUE NIGHT...AND FROM THERE INTO EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT WILL
PRECEDE THE LOW DURING THE DAY TUE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WED.

[TWCCraig]

From NWS:
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE
EMPHASIS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DURING TUE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COINCIDES WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A 50 TO 60 KT 925 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE HOW UNSTABLE WILL THE LOW-LEVELS GET. THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...MU CAPES ON THE ORDER 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND WARM
WATERS TO THE SOUTH ALL POINT TO DECENT MIXING. IN FACT...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS 7 TO 8 DEG C LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB. THIS
POINTS TO A SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND EVENT WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN
ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...STILL GOING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...BUT THIS MAY BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS.
SHOULD THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE GROWS...WINDS WILL BE ADJUSTED
UPWARDS.

[TWCCraig]

Sorry to post so much in this thread.

*Gale Watch now in effect

90% Chance of Wind Advisory
20% Chance of High Wind Warning

... Gale watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
Tuesday night...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a gale watch...
which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night.

* Location... forecast waters surrounding Long Island... and New
York Harbor.

* Winds... south 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.

* Seas... 7 to 12 feet.

* Timing... Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night... with the
highest winds and seas likely Tuesday night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A gale watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased... but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

From NWS Forecast Discussion:
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS AT 950 MB INCREASING FROM AROUND 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
TO NEAR 60 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
INCREASING THETA E VALUES WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO LIKELY WITH DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH
URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.

I'm still sticking with my forecast wind map posted above, no changes are expected to be made

[TWCCraig]

**PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA ARE ALREADY UNDER A HIGH WIND WATCH. Though the criteria for a High Wind Watch for those areas are lower than ours, the current area under a High Wind Watch is inland, according to the watch's description, specifically only the higher elevations are likely to receive warning criteria level winds. Given that Long Island geographically favors high winds, I now give Long Island a 100% chance of being put under at least a Wind Advisory, and now a 50% chance of a High Wind Watch.

EDIT: **WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ARE NOW UNDER A WIND ADVISORY**

[TWCCraig]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
180400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.120918T1600Z-120919T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW
  YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH
  POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW
  YORK CITY AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TO THE EAST.
  THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

[TWCCraig]

From NWS Upton's Twitter page:

[TWCCraig]

I figured this would happen. Though I don't agree with the wind forecast made by the NWS. I'm still going with my original forecast I made a few days ago, 25-40mph G to 60mph.


... Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 am EDT
Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from noon today to 6 am EDT
Wednesday. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... New York City... Long Island... and southern
Connecticut.

* Hazards... strong and gusty wind.

* Winds... south 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 5o mph.

* Timing... highest threat potential is from late this afternoon
through late tonight. This potential will be enhanced in areas
of heavy showers or thunderstorms.

* Impacts... downed limbs... and possibly trees. Downed power lines
with scattered power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph... are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.

[TWCCraig]

Tornado Watch 646 remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for the
following locations

NY
. New York counties included are

Albany Columbia Dutchess
Fulton Greene Hamilton
Herkimer Montgomery Nassau
Putnam Rensselaer Saratoga
Schenectady Schoharie Suffolk
Ulster Warren Washington
Westchester

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 am EDT Wednesday...

* locations... New York City... Long Island... and southern
Connecticut.

* Hazards... strong and gusty winds.

* Winds... south 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 50 and 55 mph.

* Timing... highest threat potential is late afternoon through
late tonight. This potential will be enhanced in areas of heavy
showers or thunderstorms.

* Impacts... downed limbs... and possibly trees. Downed power
lines with scattered power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph...
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph... are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile
vehicles. Use extra caution.


The following are unofficial observations taken during the storm
that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to
Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and
media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home
Page at weather.Gov/NYC

***********************peak wind gust***********************

Location Max wind time/date comments
                        gust of
                         mph measurement

Connecticut

... Anz330...
   4 SW East Haven 42 416 PM 9/18 mesonet

... Fairfield County...
   Bridgeport Airport 44 406 PM 9/18 ASOS

... New Haven County...
   1 NW Raynham 44 412 PM 9/18 mesonet
   New Haven 44 429 PM 9/18 ASOS

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Teterboro 41 114 PM 9/18 ASOS

... Essex County...
   Newark Airport 40 446 PM 9/18 ASOS

New York

... Anz330...
   buoy 44039 43 330 PM 9/18 buoy

... Anz335...
   1 S Mamaroneck 49 147 PM 9/18 mesonet
   2 NW Sands Point 47 330 PM 9/18 buoy - Execution Rocks

... Anz338...
   8 SSW Coney Island 55 342 PM 9/18 mesonet
   2 N Tompkinsville 49 518 PM 9/18 mesonet
   1 NE Saint George 47 200 PM 9/18 mesonet
   8 S Seagate 47 206 PM 9/18 mesonet

... Anz345...
   1 S captree state PA 43 455 PM 9/18 mesonet

... Anz355...
   buoy 44065 47 450 PM 9/18 buoy

... Anz370...
   buoy 44025 43 324 PM 9/18 buoy

... Nassau County...
   1 NW Saddle Rock 46 436 PM 9/18 mesonet
   1 N Roslyn 43 300 PM 9/18 mesonet

... Queens County...
   1 SW Breezy Point 46 245 PM 9/18 mesonet
   NYC/La Guardia 45 324 PM 9/18 ASOS
   NYC/JFK Airport 45 327 PM 9/18 ASOS
   2 SSE Jackson height 44 418 PM 9/18 mesonet

... Suffolk County...
   Patchogue 44 450 PM 9/18 public
   1 SW Amity Harbor 44 1150 am 9/18 mesonet
   Gilgo Beach 44 530 PM 9/18 mesonet
   East Farmingdale 41 433 PM 9/18 ASOS

... Westchester County...
   White Plains 47 354 PM 9/18 ASOS
   2 ESE Croton-on-huds 45 352 PM 9/18 mesonet

[TWCCraig]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

CTC001-009-NYC059-081-190115-
/O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-120919T0115Z/
NEW HAVEN CT-NASSAU NY-QUEENS NY-FAIRFIELD CT-
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR FAIRFIELD...EASTERN QUEENS...NASSAU AND WESTERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF WATERBURY TO WESTPORT TO DARIEN TO OLD
WESTBURY TO EAST ROCKAWAY TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC BEACH...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF WATERBURY TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NORWALK TO STAMFORD TO WESTBURY TO LYNBROOK TO LONG
BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4155 7287 4120 7307 4061 7346 4064 7342
      4062 7342 4061 7342 4058 7382 4099 7357
      4058 7382 4086 7370 4094 7361 4100 7363
      4149 7340 4152 7317 4165 7294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 221DEG 51KT 4160 7310 4121 7328
          4106 7345 4085 7355 4069 7362 4036 7386

$$

GOODMAN

[TWCCraig]

TORNADO WARNING
NYC103-190200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0013.120919T0134Z-120919T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* AT 932 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF GILGO STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
  BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  AMITYVILLE...LINDENHURST...BABYLON...ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK...
  CAPTREE STATE PARK...BAY SHORE...ISLIP...SAYVILLE...RONKONKOMA...
  PATCHOGUE...HOLBROOK...DAVIS PARK AND BRENTWOOD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 7342 4085 7314 4074 7301 4072 7304
      4072 7312 4069 7315 4070 7324 4065 7338
      4067 7324 4064 7321 4066 7321 4066 7311
      4071 7297 4070 7294 4062 7323 4063 7336
      4061 7342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 227DEG 47KT 4049 7352

$$

GOODMAN

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
CTC001-007-009-NYC059-103-190200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0089.120919T0109Z-120919T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
909 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* AT 904 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM WOLCOTT TO BEACON FALLS TO DERBY TO WESTPORT TO HUNTINGTON
  STATION TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC BEACH...OR ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM BRISTOL TO NAUGATUCK TO SHELTON TO 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF NORWALK TO HUNTINGTON STATION TO LONG BRANCH NEW
  JERSEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OR PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH ...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7250 4127 7256 4124 7290 4128 7292
      4105 7340 4091 7324 4098 7312 4096 7287
      4072 7307 4070 7321 4064 7318 4066 7311
      4064 7320 4070 7323 4065 7321 4058 7375
      4155 7317 4164 7297 4155 7285 4165 7251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 234DEG 40KT 4170 7295 4148 7303
          4135 7304 4116 7328 4087 7335 4032 7387
          4010 7396

$$

GOODMAN

[TWCCraig]

48°F at KISP this morning
49.3°F at my weather station this morning
Ocean keeps me warm 

Coldest morning low since May 19th!

[TWCCraig]

Sorry to post so much in this thread, be sure to check out other threads.

EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES occurred this morning.

Some observations:
My PWS: 45.7°F
KISP: 44°F
LI Pine Barrens: 37°F
Montauk Point: 57°F
Fire Island: 60°F
Farmingdale: 46°F
Central Park: 55°F

[TWCCraig]

09/28/2012 1200 PM

1 miles SSW of Eatons Neck, Suffolk County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Trees and wires down on Norfolk drive in Eatons Neck.

[TWCCraig]

That time of the year again