Parts of N. GA mountains could accumulate up to a foot of snow! WOW!
My totals have been bumped up in the 2-5 inch range w/ .50 inch of ice expected.
Here's the forecast disco that mentions this. As you can tell right from the beginning, the crew at the NWS have been tirelessly working hard all day to keep folks abreast of this potentially dangerous storm. It's long, but it's an excellent read and clearly explains how complex and unusual this storm system is.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED....SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY SORRY TO BE SO LATE WITH THIS BUT LOTS OF COORDINATION AND
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING PRODUCED QUITE THE SWATH OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING ROSE ABOVE BY MID MORNING AND ARE NOW
IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL TO MELT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WITHIN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS
WHICH MOVED THROUGH. A MUCH NEEDED BREAK CURRENTLY AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH EVEN SOME NVA WORKING INTO THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR FOR THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BUT OVERALL POP TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD.
MODEL CHANGES...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH TRENDS BEING A COLDER
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH BRINGS IN MID 20S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN DEVELOPING WEDGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENTIRE
DIFFERENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER
30S WOULD STILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT NOT A HISTORIC
ONE. NAM12 IS HIGHER WITH ITS TEMPS BUT STILL HAS AREAS RIGHT
AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IMPACTS.
BASED ON
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF DEVELOPING CAD WEDGES AND THE EXPECTED QPF FROM
WPC...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE DIRE PREDICTIONS OF A HALF AND INCH
OF ICE TO CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BIGGEST CHANGE PERHAPS IS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH NOW 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH 10 INCHES TO PERHAPS A FOOT
POSSIBLE IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO INCREASE THE TOTALS FOR THE
NORTH ATLANTA METRO WITH AN INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WAS
USING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH UTILIZING GIVEN WPC QPF. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE MORE MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
WRAP AROUND STILL LOOKS SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS STORM BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST ALL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT SOME
OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING
BUT IF DEFORMATION AXIS IS SLOWER TO
LIFT OUT...SNOW TOTALS WOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED.IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THE ABOVE...WINDS WILL ALSO PROVE TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS CREATING HAVOC WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
AND ICE STORM WARNINGS.
TREES WILL BE EASILY SNAPPED OR TOPPLED
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...ICE AND WINDS. POWERLINES WILL
ALSO BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AND SOME RESIDENTS WILL BE WITHOUT
POWER FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS UP TO A WEEK.IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EFFECTS FORM THIS STORM WILL
NOT END WITH THE PRECIP. AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST FOUND OUT
WITH THE LAST STORM...
MELTING OF ICE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION ON AREA INTERSTATES AS
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE FALL FROM ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.DEESE
