December 23, 2024, 10:25:33 AM

Author Topic: Severe Weather Season 2013  (Read 29026 times)

phw115wvwx

  • Guest
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #60 on: June 13, 2013, 11:08:36 PM »
All the SPC outlooks are based on probability.  They determine the percentages for the chances that a wind, hail, or tornado report will occur within 25 miles of a point.  They used the hatched areas to denote when there's a 10% or greater chance of more significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.  All those probabilities are converted to the risks you see.  A high risk means that the odds of having severe weather are much higher than any other random day.  It's only implied that an event would be expected to occur based on the conditions, but it does not mean that it's 100% certain.  Sure, SPC wishes every high risk could be certain to occur, but it's just not possible.  Please view this link from SPC for the conversions of the outlook risks:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

Everyone in society can't handle probabilistic forecasts.  They want to know if it's going to happen or not, and the science has just not evolved yet to the point where that question can be handled with complete accuracy.  Thus, you run into this issue of perception when the reality is that no such theory for mesoscale meteorology exists, and there's no magic formula to tell you exactly when and where these outbreaks will happen.  The models were doing a terrible job trying to pinpoint this event, so SPC and everyone else was limited on how well they could predict it.  Think about it for the future when you're trying to forecast this kind of event, and you'll see just how difficult it really is to predict severe weather.

I literally just got back from work where 25 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in the Blacksburg county warning area today, and I actually issued 7 of those.  All of them are verified with reports of winds gusts up 70 mph, power outages, numerous trees down, and quarter-sized hail.  We even know of two deaths that occurred today.  I'm exhausted to say the least.

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6921
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #61 on: June 14, 2013, 12:03:39 PM »
An EF-1 tornado was confirmed in Cherokee Co., GA by the NWS Damage Survey team.

Code: [Select]
386
NOUS42 KFFC 141539
PNSFFC
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR JUNE 13 2013 TORNADO EVENT - UPDATE #1...

...EF-1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

...STILL SURVEYING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES...

.CHEROKEE COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   75 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             JUNE 13 2013
START TIME:             7:00 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         4 MILES WNW CANTON
START LAT/LON:          34.2662/-84.5574 W

END DATE:               JUNE 13 2013
END TIME:               APPROXIMATELY 7:25 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           5 MILES SSE CANTON
END LAT/LON:            34.1705/-84.4666

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
PATRIOT TRAIL AND RAMPLEY TRAIL...THEN HEADED SOUTH TOWARDS CANTON
CAUSING GENERALLY TREE DAMAGE. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. IN CANTON...ALONG MARIETTA ROAD AND HICKORY FLAT
HIGHWAY...A CHEVRON GAS STATION HAD A PORTION OF ITS ROOF PEELED
BACK AND A GAS PUMP BLOWN OVER. ALONG HICKORY FLAT HIGHWAY DOZENS
OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. THE TORNADO CURVED TO THE
RIGHT...HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE ALONG
ITS APPROXIMATELY 8.5 MILE PATH. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF NEW LIGHT ROAD AND HICKORY ROAD.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline Metarvo

  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 574
  • Gender: Male
  • Doesn't record TWC
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Dish Network
  • HD Channel #: 214
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #62 on: June 14, 2013, 05:22:36 PM »
It sounds like some rough stuff there, Tavores.  At least you're OK.

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6921
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #63 on: June 14, 2013, 05:53:34 PM »
It sounds like some rough stuff there, Tavores.  At least you're OK.


Yeah it was, the lightning is what had me in awe, I'm completely shocked and surprised we didn't lose power. Over 160,000 folks in the city did during the peak of these tornadoes. Anytime were under a tornado warning now I take it 100x more seriously than I did prior to March 2008. As soon as any thought pops into my mind that it will weaken or it will change directions at the last minute, I remember what happened around here that night so I'll never be that complacent again.  :no:

The NWS Damage Survey Team updated their report this afternoon. Turns out the storm didn't just produce one, but two tornadoes. The second tornado affected my county (Fulton) and was also an EF-1. It lifted around the town of Sandy Springs (far nothern edge of the ATL Perimeter)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=atlpnsffc

EDIT: Kudos to our local ABC affiliate for breaking into regular programming to report a possible tornado developing a good 5-10 minutes before our NWS issued the warning. They proved why they're #1 rated for a reason
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 06:01:33 PM by toxictwister00 »


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline WeatherWitness

  • Andy
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 4638
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #64 on: June 14, 2013, 06:03:25 PM »
The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday.  An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:

Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon

Offline TWCJim

  • Fan of LOT8s/Wxscan, NOAA Weather Radio & the EAS
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1797
    • View Profile
    • TWCJim's STAR Database
  • Cable Provider: Other
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2013, 06:23:59 PM »
The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday.  An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:

Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon


I was quite shocked myself when I read about the tornado down in McMinnville (near Portland) but based on many Doppler radar sources that I've looked at, the system that produced the EF1 tornado was just a brief but heavy rain shower and not much else. No lightning, no reports of thunder, just rain  :blink:

Oregon is no stranger to tornadoes. Back in 1972, Portland and Vancouver got hit by an F-3 tornado, and in late 2010, a weak EF-2 tornado hit Aumsville. In the summertime, the northwest gets a few severe thunderstorms here and there, but tornadoes are quite a rare sight to see in this part of the US. As for myself, I've never seen one tornado in my lifetime, and I probably will never get to  :P
TWCJim's STAR Database
TWCJim (main YouTube channel)
EASJim (second YouTube channel for my EAS and NWR videos)


Offline Localonthe8s

  • XL Icon Lover
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 28452
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Cablevision
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2013, 07:05:13 PM »
The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday.  An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:

Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon

wow

Offline TWCJim

  • Fan of LOT8s/Wxscan, NOAA Weather Radio & the EAS
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1797
    • View Profile
    • TWCJim's STAR Database
  • Cable Provider: Other
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #67 on: September 30, 2013, 03:21:51 PM »
A tornado touched down near Puyallup, Washington this morning!  :o

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Strong-windstorm--Western-Washington-weekend-225716201.html
TWCJim's STAR Database
TWCJim (main YouTube channel)
EASJim (second YouTube channel for my EAS and NWR videos)


Offline SamRichardson92

  • Sam R
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 175
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Other
  • HD Channel #: 427
  • SD Channel #: 06
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #68 on: October 03, 2013, 09:30:23 AM »







Offline SamRichardson92

  • Sam R
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 175
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Other
  • HD Channel #: 427
  • SD Channel #: 06
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2013, 10:03:18 AM »




This may be the Weather Channel's first "localized" coverage!

Offline TWCmatthew

  • Avid TWC Fan 2000-2011
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1554
  • Gender: Male
  • Trained Weather Spotter for NWS Detroit/Pontiac
    • View Profile
    • My YouTube Page
  • Cable Provider: Charter
  • SD Channel #: 35
  • SD WxStar ID #: 23527
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #70 on: November 16, 2013, 07:17:16 PM »
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley under a Moderate Risk of severe weather for Sunday. Things may definitely get interesting.

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6921
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #71 on: November 17, 2013, 01:20:07 AM »
Eastern IL and most of IN has been upgraded to HIGH RISK. This is very rare in the month of November.


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6921
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #72 on: November 17, 2013, 08:28:26 AM »
HIGH RISK expanded to include the city of Chicago. MODERATE RISK also expanded as far east as Pittsburgh.

I hope everyone who lives in the Great Lakes region isn't tuning out today. It's shaping up to be a very dangerous day.


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6921
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #73 on: November 17, 2013, 11:43:00 AM »
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCHES ISSUED FOR ALL OF IN/IL, PARTS OF MO, WI, AND MI

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline Localonthe8s

  • XL Icon Lover
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 28452
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Cablevision
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« Reply #74 on: November 17, 2013, 12:13:54 PM »
New one including southern MO, AR and TN
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0563.html