Severe Weather Season 2013

[Localonthe8s]

I know tornado activity isn't too hot in Texas for the month of June but I am having second thoughts about going to Dallas next month. Where I'm going is in the tornado watch area.

Speaking of Dallas, looks like there are two warnings for the counties just south of Fort Worth.

[Localonthe8s]

Another tornado outbreak possible this Tuesday/Wednesday. According to Kyla grogan, these storms could produce overnight tornadoes in the plains.

[Lightning]

Another tornado outbreak possible this Tuesday/Wednesday. According to Kyla grogan, these storms could produce overnight tornadoes in the plains.

That is not good.

[phw115wvwx]

SPC has slight risks up for the northern Plains this week.  Kansas, Nebraska, and other states nearby could see some action.

[toxictwister00]

HIGH RISK hatched today for IL and IN. (Includes the cities of Chicago and Fort Wayne)

Code: [Select]

SPC AC 121626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
   ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
   MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
   FROM EASTERN IOWA TO WESTERN OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST AND PARTS OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT AND A PART OF
   NERN WY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT AND INTENSIFYING
   SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS WELL
   AS SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES.

   ...ERN IA/NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SRN
   WI AND SWRN LOWER MI...

   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS HAVE CONGEALED AHEAD OF A
   COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID
   LEVEL WLY FLOW CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AN
   EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING AND
   DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
   LOWER 70S F AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE MIDWEST FROM IA EAST ACROSS IL/IND/OH. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   THIS SAME REGION INDICATE A PRONOUNCED EML ADVECTING EAST FROM THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM.

   DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEGREE OF
   HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDING SURFACE CYCLONE
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
   FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
   DEEP CONVECTION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL MAY PRECEDE TRULY
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN IA ACROSS SRN WI TO LOWER
   MI. GIVEN DEGREE OF CAPPING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
   POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG STORM-RELATIVELY HELICITY /SRH/. ANY
   CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY
   ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
   SHEAR OF 35-55KT. POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED
   DURING THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT PHASE /21Z-00Z/ NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
   WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST HIGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
   SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.

   ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE RIPPLING EAST
   ALONG THE WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...IN CONCERT WITH 50-60KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO/ACROSS THE
   DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS UPSCALE PROGRESSIVE MCS
   /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
   ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING...AND DEPICTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY HIGH
   CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS
   SHOWING MCS/DERECHO EVOLUTION WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS. WRF-ARW SIMULATION FROM 00Z TAKES THE APEX OF THE
   PROGRESSIVE MCS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT IN UNDER 6 HOURS WITH A
   FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN AND
   AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH HIGH WINDS
   POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AS WELL A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
   LINE/QLCS.

   ...OH EAST TO EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST...
   WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING
   ACROSS FROM OH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO EAST COAST. SOME
   MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEXES DEVELOPING FROM INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN
   SUBTLE/WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE
   TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THESE PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.

   ...MT/NERN WY...
   STRONG IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRENGTHENING SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A NUMBER OF SUPERCELL
   STORMS POSING BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
   ALSO EVOLVE FROM INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   STORM UPDRAFT LAYER.

   ..CARBIN/SMITH/BUNTING.. 06/12/2013

[Lightning]

Areas just west of Chicago are under tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.

[Mr. Rainman]

Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.

I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. 

[TWCCraig]

Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.

I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. 

I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.

[Mr. Rainman]

Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.

I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. 

I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.

You have to look at why there was a High Risk, though, and it was because they were expecting widespread significant wind gusts. That certainly did not happen, which is why the forecast busted. A plain ole 45% wind corridor with no significant hashing would have been more than sufficient.

And noting that there were hardly any significant wind or hail events, along with no significant tornadoes (thus far), it could be argued that the PDS Tornado and PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches were a bust as well.

[WeatherWitness]

Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.

I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. 

I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.

In my eyes, it should be both.  Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather.  For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk.  However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready. 

Yes, there were numerous hail and wind reports yesterday (some tornado reports too), but in my eyes, none were significant enough to warrant a "high risk."  I know these reports are still preliminary, so this could change.  The high risk was issued primarily for wind.  Unfortunately, a lot of the speeds associated with reported damage are unknown.  The highest wind speed I am seeing reported is 80 mph, and there is only one report of that.  But even a lot of the wind reports/damage were reported out of the high risk area!  The two biggest hail reports I am seeing are 2.50" (tennis ball) and 2.75" (baseball), but ironically, those were also out of the high risk area!  A lot of the hail reports were quarter to golf ball size.  Yes, that is severe, but if a high risk was issued every time quarter to golf ball-size hail occurred, we'd be seeing a high risk for almost every severe weather outbreak!

Unfortunately, the PDS Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch also busted.  Again, all the details are not known at this time, but I do not think we saw a single "violent, long-lived" tornado in the watch area.  We also did not see 3"+ hail like the watches called for, or a derecho-like scenario.  So, I would have to agree that yesterday was a bust overall. 

Now I know severe weather is, at times, highly unpredictable and difficult to forecast.  I apologize if my post is written in a way that makes me look like I hate the SPC or could do a better job because I don't think I could.  However, as was made clear by the media yesterday, when a high risk is issued, a pretty significant outbreak of severe weather needs to happen, otherwise it will be like "crying wolf" and we certainly don't want the public to stop heeding high risks if we mess up too many times.  Unfortunately, it seems quite a bit of high risks have busted in the past.

OK, I am sorry for this long rant.  Craig, please know that we're not trying to bash you; I had actually started writing this post before Mac posted his.  I just feel that the system or criteria for risks should be looked at or better understood.  What are everyone else's thoughts?

[TWCCraig]

In my eyes, it should be both.  Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather.  For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk.  However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready. 

Yes, there were numerous hail and wind reports yesterday (some tornado reports too), but in my eyes, none were significant enough to warrant a "high risk."  I know these reports are still preliminary, so this could change.  The high risk was issued primarily for wind.  Unfortunately, a lot of the speeds associated with reported damage are unknown.  The highest wind speed I am seeing reported is 80 mph, and there is only one report of that.  But even a lot of the wind reports/damage were reported out of the high risk area!  The two biggest hail reports I am seeing are 2.50" (tennis ball) and 2.75" (baseball), but ironically, those were also out of the high risk area!  A lot of the hail reports were quarter to golf ball size.  Yes, that is severe, but if a high risk was issued every time quarter to golf ball-size hail occurred, we'd be seeing a high risk for almost every severe weather outbreak!

Unfortunately, the PDS Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch also busted.  Again, all the details are not known at this time, but I do not think we saw a single "violent, long-lived" tornado in the watch area.  We also did not see 3"+ hail like the watches called for, or a derecho-like scenario.  So, I would have to agree that yesterday was a bust overall. 

Now I know severe weather is, at times, highly unpredictable and difficult to forecast.  I apologize if my post is written in a way that makes me look like I hate the SPC or could do a better job because I don't think I could.  However, as was made clear by the media yesterday, when a high risk is issued, a pretty significant outbreak of severe weather needs to happen, otherwise it will be like "crying wolf" and we certainly don't want the public to stop heeding high risks if we mess up too many times.  Unfortunately, it seems quite a bit of high risks have busted in the past.

OK, I am sorry for this long rant.  Craig, please know that we're not trying to bash you; I had actually started writing this post before Mac posted his.  I just feel that the system or criteria for risks should be looked at or better understood.  What are everyone else's thoughts?

I agree that the risk areas were misplaced, and a lot of the severe weather occurred outside the high risk area. I've been tracking this system from the start. I have to say, it was poorly modeled from the start. Every model run was different in the placement of everything. It kept changing. But that's what happens in these very dynamical situations. Not being argumentative, but I still think the "high risk" is based on probability, not severity. They did forecast some significant severe wx. to occur, which didn't end of happening. It's easier for the SPC forecast the probability of a severe weather outbreak than it is the severity of it. We can't really predict exactly how strong the tornadoes, how the large the hail, or how strong the wind will be in a particular thunderstorm, but we better predict the probability of some type of severe weather to occur, whether significant or not.

[Metarvo]

Apparently, TWC isn't the only place weather sensationalism exists.  The SPC's following suit IMHO.  I remember a time when a high risk meant something out of the ordinary would happen.  Not your typical springtime storms, but generally a vicious tornado outbreak.  I'm not aware of such a risk level having been issued for straight-line winds very many times.

Of course, it's better safe than sorry.  Assuming people always obeyed the warnings, it would be better for more of them to be issued.  People would be safer because they would always prepare, and it's more desirable to prepare for a storm that doesn't pan out than it would be not to prepare due to lack of warning and get caught in a surprise tornado.

Unfortunately, the reality is that warnings are sometimes ignored, and the problem is exacerbated if too many warnings are issued for storms that don't materialize.  If "high risk" becomes commonplace, then it becomes the new normal.  It would be the equivalent of a tornado warning being used all the time for conditions which would normally warrant a tornado watch only.

[toxictwister00]

In my eyes, it should be both.  Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather.  For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk.  However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready. 

Agreed, I think to an extent having the risk areas works in the same mindset that the general public seems to have about low/high end tornadoes and hurricanes thinking that just because one is rated higher/lower than another one, that must automatically mean it's going to worse or not as bad.

I agree that the risk areas were misplaced, and a lot of the severe weather occurred outside the high risk area. I've been tracking this system from the start. I have to say, it was poorly modeled from the start. Every model run was different in the placement of everything. It kept changing. But that's what happens in these very dynamical situations. Not being argumentative, but I still think the "high risk" is based on probability, not severity. They did forecast some significant severe wx. to occur, which didn't end of happening. It's easier for the SPC forecast the probability of a severe weather outbreak than it is the severity of it. We can't really predict exactly how strong the tornadoes, how the large the hail, or how strong the wind will be in a particular thunderstorm, but we better predict the probability of some type of severe weather to occur, whether significant or not.

I think that's strictly the way it should be. Severe weather is severe weather, like you said it's not possible to accurately predict exactly how strong a tornado, hail or wind from thunderstorms will be.

Apparently, TWC isn't the only place weather sensationalism exists.  The SPC's following suit IMHO. I remember a time when a high risk meant something out of the ordinary would happen.  Not your typical springtime storms, but generally a vicious tornado outbreak.  I'm not aware of such a risk level having been issued for straight-line winds very many times.

I could use some clarification here. Maybe it's the way I'm reading it, but these parts of your post sounds a bit contradictory. At first you mentioned how you remember high risk being issued if something out of the ordinary would happen, yet at the end you said you aren't aware of many high risks being issued for damaging winds. Wouldn't that technically mean at the time issuing the high risk had a validation for being issued? I mean it would have to have been expected to be something out of the ordinary as you mentioned, not your typical line of damaging winds right?

[Metarvo]

I must not have been thinking there.    I meant to say "straight-line winds as opposed to tornadoes."  I realize tornadoes aren't the only kind of severe weather, but they're the first kind I think of.  There's a perception out there that straight-line winds are somehow "less severe" than tornadoes.

[toxictwister00]

Possible tornado is heading my way, unless it weakens or shifts left (west) or right (east) the rotation will be right over me in the next 30-45 mins.

Reports of green skies in Sandy Plains, GA, we all know what that usually means...