MDT Risk - April 17th

[Mr. Rainman]

A fairly rare Day 3 MDT risk has been issued for a good chunk of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri, including the city of Joplin. Right now it looks like the biggest threat prompting this is large hail, although the tornado potential is definitely there.

IF there are going to be any significant tornadoes, I would expect them to be near the southern end of the MDT risk - so the Red River Basin, OKC area, possibly Tulsa. SPC hasn't mentioned significant tornadoes so, along with them, my confidence in saying so is very, very low. We'll see what happens.

Hopefully this doesn't bust. 

[Metarvo]

There's trouble going on near Frederick, OK., which was in the red area on the map.  Storm chasers are on the ground beaming the footage to the viewers, and tornado warnings have gone up.  Hook echoes have been reported, and there's a clear triple point on the map where N, SW, and SE winds are converging.  Tor-Con is 6/10 for S.-Central Oklahoma and 5/10 for Dallas.

[Trevor]

[Mr. Rainman]

Not a single tornado reported. What a bust. 

[Trevor]

Aaaaaannnnndddddd yet again...

[TWCmatthew]

A PDS Tornado Watch was in effect in north/central IN and far SW Michigan earlier today...but it busted big time (in addition to the general moderate risk.) Too much convective debris limited CAPE to mainly under 500-1000 j/kg. That's why the low level winds weren't transported to the ground efficiently during the storms (or at least as widepsread as forecasted.) The atmosphere was well mixed, however, and we had gusts topping 40 mph throughout the day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures around 81, and dew points around 63 in the Monroe, MI area. Low level shear was decent, with 45 knots of 0-1 km shear, 200-300 or so m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm relative helicity, etc. A few places just to my northwest had 65 mph gusts with the squall line, though, and a decent shelf cloud was visible across the entire area. My county was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but the strongest winds didn't reach the ground (we had some 40-45 mph gusts, though.)

[WeatherWitness]

Not a single tornado reported. What a bust. 

Mac, I don't know if this is true.   According to these storm reports, five tornadoes were reported on Wednesday, but they were very short.  These occurred in Oklahoma/north Texas.  As reports still come in, it is possible that these are incorrect if you have heard or seen otherwise.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#OUN/201304171700/201304181200/0101

[Mr. Rainman]

Not a single tornado reported. What a bust. 

Mac, I don't know if this is true.   According to these storm reports, five tornadoes were reported on Wednesday, but they were very short.  These occurred in Oklahoma/north Texas.  As reports still come in, it is possible that these are incorrect if you have heard or seen otherwise.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#OUN/201304171700/201304181200/0101

I retract my statement. There were 10 tornado reports now on the report page. When I checked when I posted, there were 0. Thanks for the correction, Andy.