Messages

766

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Emily

« on: August 01, 2011, 08:22:33 PM »

I don't think we really need to make predictions on the precise location of a United States landfall just yet. We still don't have enough data, and that event is still 5 days out, if not more.

Current forecasts are for Emily to remain weak as organization and interaction with land hinder with its development. The Dominican Republic will definitely see impacts from this storm. I'm waiting on the latest model runs to see what they say.

Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...

Rule #1. Don't hypecast or do any variation of it.

767

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 03:29:40 PM »

In other news.... It looks like some dry air and some shear has resulted in the wave being downgraded to 80%... Looking at models this morning I knew deep down that something was going to hinder the development today. Also, someone told me recon has found the pressure dropping and they haven't arrived at the wave yet.

768

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 03:27:11 PM »

Our director has an objective with his forecasts to beat the NHC in declaring a system a tropical depression or tropical storm or what not. As regular forecasters, we can express our opinions on this call, but rarely can we overturn it. He is the director, after all.

At the risk of insulting your employer, I am going to say that this is just plain stupid.  The NHC alone has the duty and the authority to declare a system tropical.

Does this director really believe that people are going to listen to USA Weather over the National Hurricane Center regarding a tropical system?  Does this director feel that, for the purposes of "beating" the NHC at declaring a system tropical, it is worthwhile to just disregard the established guidelines of what makes a system tropical in the first place?!

Stupid. 

Okay.... Well i'll set it straight.

769

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 02:30:11 PM »

Well.... I'm just gonna act like I didn't read all of that and forget it. Just know, I'm no fool, I know my weather basics... Now I forgive those who can't or didn't read those posts. 

770

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 12:02:35 PM »

I originally had my target point for landfall as Wilmington, NC; but I have widened it to include Miami, FL; Key West, FL; and all of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

If he has no qualifications, then he is technically providing false information. I would not listen to him...

I agree. This isn't exactly something I wanted to talk about here, but I guess oops? I'm taking this up with he/she later... I don't approve of undermining the authority of NHC/NWS

771

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 11:37:09 AM »

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

But that's just wrong.  A tropical depression requires certain accepted conditions, and this tropical wave doesn't yet meet all of these conditions.  If it did, then it would have been designated as a depression by the National Hurricane Center.

Who is the person giving the orders, and what kind of qualifications does he have?!

I agree with you completely. Recon did not find a closed circulation at the surface this AM... But, still he begs to differ. GO figure. Qualifications? Eh, No idea.

772

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 10:21:24 AM »

Tropical Depression 91L

But it's not yet a tropical depression.  It's a tropical wave.

Yeah I know. My Tropical Director said thats what he wants it to be in all of our text products today, and I have to answer to him... So, I have no choice. 

773

Everything Else TWC / Re: Storm Alert Mode 2011!

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:58:41 AM »

Did TWC send half their team out to cover this Tropical Storm, only for it to fall completely apart as it literally crashed into the dry air?

They sent out Paul Goodloe and Jim Cantore and a NBC reporter was out there but i forgot her name.

I believe Mike Sidel was out there too?

774

The Game Room / Re: Ban the Person above you

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:57:51 AM »

Banned for banning yourself! 

775

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2011

« on: August 01, 2011, 09:48:33 AM »

My Morning forecast outlook.
[TFDATD]
USA Weather - Tropical Forecast Division
Atlantic Tropical Discussion **Update**
9:03 AM EDT Monday, August 1, 2011


Tropical Depression 91L
Located: 14.1 N 53.6 W
Winds: 25 kts | 30 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb | 29.71 inches



...TD 91L EXPERECTED TO FURTHER DEVELOP...



A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS NOTED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO A LIGHT SHEAR ZONE, WHERE IT WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED THAT OUT TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SOME MARGINALLY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO TRACK WEST THROUGHT THE DAY TODAY, THEN SHIFT NORTH WEST TUESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF US IMPACTS MID/LATE WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.



ELSE WHERE, TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC WEST OF AFRICA. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE OF. MORE DETAILS WILL BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT UPDATE AT 11AM ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L.



 









 

GATLIN

776

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: July 31, 2011, 04:12:59 PM »

82° And Extremely Unstable. Below are two images....
1st Doppler, 2nd VIL

777

Programming and Graphics / Re: If Al Roker wasn't enough...

« on: July 31, 2011, 09:32:12 AM »

Holy cow, does it. I remember the episode where they were crab fishing out in a wicked storm, and a really strong wind gust dislodged a steel hook and slammed it right into a guy's nose. The weather is really brutal out there.

You can find weather In almost any show if you look for it... I don't think its a bad idea showing the brutal weather of the area, but making a mock and varied of Deadliest Catch is low...

778

General Discussion / Re: Weather Dreams

« on: July 30, 2011, 08:04:23 AM »

During a time a few months ago, I started getting mixed feelings about becoming a meteorologist. I had several dreams that week weather related, and there was one that stick out the most in my mind. Here's how it went.

It was a bright, warm and humid sunny spring day at the beach with the friends and some family. In the dream I decided to not become a meteorologist and left it in the dust. I never followed weather and always went with it not knowing. While at the beach one day, everyone was oblivious to the storm brewing. Just across the lake was a supercell thunderstorm gathering strength. It began to march across the lake and before anyone knew what was happening, we we're pelted with large hail, blown away with 70+MPH winds. Then, it hit. An EF5 Tornado reached the area and caused total distruction. I was the only to survive, and showed me what could really happen if I didn't persue weather. It was one of the worst dreams I've had in a while and really was the decision maker for me. This was around the days after the SE Tornado outbreak April 27th. Needless to say, I woke up extremely scared, but thank God it was just a dream right? 

779

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Don

« on: July 30, 2011, 05:07:44 AM »

Now downgraded to a remnant low. This morning starting to see some showers develop off shore and some around the Houston area.... Maybe enought moistrue left today for a few sprinkles, but I doubt that really. Sad for Texas, but the silver lineing is that the cotton crops we're destroyed with rain and wind.

780

OCMs & Personalities / Re: Alexandra Steele No Longer with TWC

« on: July 29, 2011, 05:08:07 AM »

Just saw Alex on CNN this morning, great thing. Makes me want to get up at 5AM much more