I never agree with Farmer's Almanac predictions. Last year, they predicted extremely cold and below average snowfall for the northeast. We had well above average snowfall and slightly below average temps. They can't even get their 3 month regional forecasts correct. That's just my opinion.
And as stated above, if La Niņa makes a return, this forecast will be thrown completely out the window (for the southern Plains, anyway).
Well that is only one piece of the puzzle, it can be overruled like it was last winter by the very strong -NAO contributing to the strong, persistent Greenland Blocking and the parade of storms coming up the east coast. Not saying this La Nina will behave the same as last winter's La Nina, but I remember many forecasted a blowtorch winter for 2010-2011 across the southern US and many of us saw record snowfall, white Christmases not seen in over a century, record lows, and some pretty nasty cold snaps. When that snowstorm came through the SE in January this year, we had snow on the ground for about 3 weeks and it was about a week before we saw above freezing daytime highs. It's reasons like that I take seasonal forecasts as entertainment and a grain of salt, too much FAIL potential. We can't accurately predict 12 hours out in advance in some circumstances, let alone 3 months.
Very true! This might be a dumb question, but I'm guessing these outlooks are supposed to be a general look at the overall winter? But how can you give a general outlook for a season? Because weather in the south, especially, can be very,
very inconsistent during the winter season. For example, Dallas saw a major ice storm and snow burst in February of this year, whereas at the same time it was also 82 degrees later that month. I'm pretty sure no Farmer's Alamanc could predict that. What would they say: warm and icy?
And yes, these are two specific examples, but many winters in Dallas are often all over the place: we'll have our unseasonably warm days, our average days, and our ridiculously cold days. So essentially, you can't put an "outlook" to that. As you said Tavores, it's sometimes very hard to predict weather hours or a few days in advance, so I don't really understand the purpose of the Farmer's Alamanc. I guess it's to provide
some outlook, just so people know what to expect. However, people need not rely on it too much because it has the potential of not being accurate.