Messages

961

General Discussion / Re: Poll - Male users: Do you ever wear pink

« on: August 23, 2011, 08:36:24 PM »

I don't see what the problem is with men wearing pink. It's a complimentary color with say, navy, black, gray, and khaki. Did I also mention that, at least with my experiences and observations, girls like guys wearing pink?

Oh, and the "Real Men Wear Pink" came from our all guys school, and it was part of a campaign for the Susan B. Koman Breast Cancer organization. But the slogan also suggests that men that wear pink are confident, but at the same time caring.

962

General Discussion / Re: Poll - Male users: Do you ever wear pink

« on: August 23, 2011, 07:32:30 PM »

Sure, I've worn pink before: a pink polo shirt. But it has nothing to do with sexual orientation. But wearing pink doesn't mean you're gay, not by a long shot. As my high school put it:

REAL MEN WEAR PINK.

963

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: August 23, 2011, 10:08:03 AM »

Got to this a little late. Whoops. Climate for August 22nd, 2011.

Current Conditions
The temperature is currently 71 degrees, with gusty winds out of the SSW. Cloud cover ranging from minimal to mixed. No shower activity noted, although last night there were severe thunderstorms in Southeast North Dakota. The lows last night were anticipated to be in the mid 50s.

Forecast

• Today, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows reaching the low 60s. No precipitation anticipated.
• Tomorrow, highs will be in the upper 70s, with lows in the low to mid 50s. Breezy conditions likely, with gusts up to 25 mph.
• Thursday, clear skies with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
• Friday will feature mixed cloud cover with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the low 50s. No precipitation is anticipated.
• The thunderstorms anticipated for Thursday should not be severe.

Climatology

• The high yesterday was 87, 8 above the usual average. The record for today is 99, reached in 1947.
  
• The low last night was 58, 5 degrees above average. The record for today is 40, set in 1967.
• No precipitation was recorded today, which is a tenth of an inch below average for today. Month to day, we have 3.04 inches, about 0.99 inches above average. For the year, we have had 15.57 inches, 1.17 inches above average.
• The highest wind speed recorded yesterday was out of the S at 28 mph. The gust today was 36 mph, out of the S.

964

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 23, 2011, 12:17:03 AM »

NHC mentioned in their advisory that the 00Z model guidance run would a lot of recon data imported into the models. Looking at the new runs, the models farther and farther north. If anything, the new threat has now shifted north again...with Wilmington possibly towards Virginia in the crossheirs. Savannah and Charleston may not see as drastic effects as previously thought.

965

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:01:19 PM »

Forecasting winds of 135 mph 72 hours out. Dang.

966

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 11:18:30 AM »

Looking at the models and NHC track, there are now two likely scenarios in my eyes:

1.) Irene curves northwest and then north earlier than the track predicts, and curves away from the United States, causing high surf and rip currents along the coastline. This option is possible, especially if the models keeping shifting east.

2.) It looks like, according to current models, the current risk zone is now more the Georgia coastline up to North Carolina. My guess is that landfall is a possibility anywhere from Charleston to the Outer Banks, with the highest risk existing around northeastern South Carolina (Myrtle Beach) to Wilmington. Highest winds forecasted sit at 115 mph, although looking at environmental conditions, I still think this is a tiny bit conservative.

967

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 10:15:50 AM »

Model guidance has shifted north and east, big time. All but about 4 models now take Irene straight in Myrtle Beach.

968

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 22, 2011, 09:14:01 AM »

I personally think that NHC is still being slightly conservative with their wind estimates with Irene. Seeing how much it has already development overnight, I would say that a moderate range Category 3 by Saturday morning is not completely out of the question. I'm thinking they may bump that final wind speed up to 120 mph in the next few days, depending on what Irene does.

She's a beautiful storm, though. Please, everyone in Georgia and Florida be careful. Southern South Carolina should probably pay attention to Irene as well.

969

Your Local Weather / Re: Grand Forks Weather

« on: August 22, 2011, 02:16:03 AM »

Current Conditions
The temperature is currently 60 degrees, with winds out of the SSE. Little to no cloud cover noted. Showers 60 miles to the southwest, moving east. Lows to reach the mid 50s.

Forecast

• Tomorrow, highs will be in the mid 80s, with lows reaching the mid 60s. Slight chance of thunderstorms; a few could be severe.
• Tuesday will feature the hottest day of the forecast period, with highs in the lower 90s. No rain is anticipated.
• Wednesday, temperatures drop. Highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the upper 50s. No rain expected.
• Thursday, similar conditions exist. Highs in the lower 80s, with lows in the lower 60s. Some rain is possible.
• Some severe weather is possible tomorrow evening.

Climatology

• The high today was 78, 2 below the usual average. The record for today is 99, reached in 1947.
  
• The low last night was 50, 3 degrees below average. The record for today is 38, set in 2004.
• No precipitation was recorded today, which is a tenth of an inch below average for today. Month to day, we have 3.04 inches, about 1.09 inches above average. For the year, we have had 15.57 inches, 1.27 inches above average.
• The highest wind speed recorded today was out of the NW at 13 mph. The gust today was 16 mph, out of the NW.

970

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 11:01:05 PM »

Am I the only one here who finds forecasting tropical tracks and intensities highly interesting? I'm really enjoying looking at everyone's tracks and predictions. 

971

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:31:03 PM »

That's a peak. Most likely, the sustained is just below that. I'm guessing 65 to 70 mph in the next advisory.

972

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 03:43:08 PM »

Since when did NHC forecast a tropical depression at the end of the period? I don't see that in the track cone or forecast discussion.

973

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 03:28:58 PM »

Interesting. Not a bad track forecast, except 75 mph is not a tropical storm.

The latest ADT run is 3.1, which signals a wind speed of just over 45 knots. So at the moment, looks like winds are holding just above 50.

974

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 21, 2011, 10:50:02 AM »

A hurricane warning, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season, is in effect for the south side of Hispaniola...and a hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

EDIT: Below is a document containing my thoughts and forecast for Irene.

975

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Irene

« on: August 20, 2011, 11:48:47 PM »

NHC is picking up on those intensity models. Here's their discussion.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

OF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.