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Messages - Mr. Rainman

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76
General Discussion / Re: Happy Birthday, phw115wvwx!
« on: February 12, 2013, 02:45:00 PM »
Happy Birthday, Patrick! Thanks for all your help and being a great friend.  B)

77
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« on: February 11, 2013, 04:28:28 PM »
Yet another severe weather outbreak I underestimated. It started out rather tame like January 30th, then suddenly it blossomed into this mess. I'm glad to hear there were no deaths and hopefully those injured will recover very soon.

Agreed. Preliminary rating is EF3 with winds of 145 mph.

EDIT: Now an EF4. Winds 170 mph.

78
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« on: February 11, 2013, 02:04:32 PM »
Hattiesburg, MS got hit hard by a pretty impressive wedge tornado yesterday. Preliminary reports put the injured near 80. Thankfully, no fatalities.


Video of the storm.
Hattiesburg Tornado RAW - John Sibley 2/10/13

79
General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove
« on: February 10, 2013, 11:59:53 PM »
Well, I never thought I'd see it, but apparently the weather got bad enough up here that we got...well, just a 2 hour delay. But that's better than nothing, I suppose.  :yes:

80
Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013
« on: February 09, 2013, 10:51:21 PM »
For a cold-core low, that is a very, very impressive image.

81
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 08, 2013, 01:18:04 PM »
19 Overcast.

Blizzard watches in effect for Sunday and Monday. Guidance suggests up to a foot of additional snow, but right now I'm only expecting 6 inches.

82
Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013
« on: February 07, 2013, 06:09:25 PM »
Totals for me

18z GFS: 10-18"
18z NAM: 24-30"
12z Euro: 20-28"
12z NNM: 24-30"
15z SREF Mean: 15-20"

And yet, I don't see how people are still forecasting less than 10" here considering the Euro, which has 2ft for me, has been the best with this storm.


Some people might be going off climatology or taking into account prior events when making their forecasts. I'm usually hesitant to go on models alone. I expect New York to see probably about a foot, maybe 15 inches.

I have put up a 24 hour radar stream that I will have up until the event is over, if anyone wants quick access to regional radar.
http://livestre.am/1bys2

EDIT:

Snowfall forecast for select cities. Part of a text forecast I did for my website before replacing it with something more user friendly.

BOSTON MA...20-26"
CONCORD NH...12-18"
HARTFORD CT...14-20"
NEWARK NJ...10-16"
NEW YORK NY...10-16"
PORTLAND ME...12-18"
PROVIDENCE RI...24-30"

83
Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013
« on: February 07, 2013, 05:29:27 PM »
Looks like NWS is expecting the heaviest snow from Connecticut northeastwards with totals up to 2 feet in those areas. Areas south look to get up to 15 with isolated higher totals.

Boston is gonna get slammed.

84
Winter Weather / Re: Blizzard for New England 2013
« on: February 06, 2013, 10:54:32 PM »
And this is why I avoid New England during this time of year. I like snow but not a lot of it. A foot at one time? No thanks.

85
General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?
« on: February 04, 2013, 04:56:02 PM »
11° Snow. Couple inches likely tonight.

86
General Discussion / Re: The Pot Belly Stove
« on: February 03, 2013, 01:58:24 AM »
North Dakota defines its winters by our temperatures (also known by the locals as the shortest amount of time between you stepping outside and getting frostbite on your nose). We don't really get much snow unless it's a clipper or a Colorado Low.

This year we hit -20 or lower quite a few times, so our winter has been considered average.

87
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« on: January 29, 2013, 01:12:21 AM »
Tornado probabilities for today. Should start by daybreak and really ramp up by the afternoon.


88
General Discussion / Re: Computer and Hardware Chat
« on: January 28, 2013, 03:42:09 AM »
I currently have 119 running with little to no issue...  :dunno:

89
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« on: January 27, 2013, 09:48:39 PM »
This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!
Do you think we'll see a setup that'll resemble the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?

Agree with Trevor. Both GFS and NAM are advertising a nasty squall line to rapidly move through Gulf Coast on Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, so damaging winds definitely look like a big threat. The question still remains over the tornado threat - I'm not sure enough to say whether we will have discrete cells ahead of the main line (that would suggest a more significant event in regards to tornadoes). Since it's high shear/low CAPE event, the most likely scenario is embedded tornadoes within the line.


90
Severe Weather / Re: Severe Weather Season 2013
« on: January 27, 2013, 08:53:39 PM »
This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!

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