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Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Debby
« on: June 24, 2012, 05:23:16 PM »NHC didn't discourage the other ones because they weren't as accurate as the ECMWF. They discounted the other models initially because the scenario that the others played out seemed likely at the time - a ridge building over the central and eastern United States forcing a turn to the west.True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboyI'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months. It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information. I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now. It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.
. That would scare the living 
out of me.
