Messages

331

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 31, 2012, 02:46:55 PM »

Spokane had a big nasty windstorm in June of 2005, with a record sustained wind speed of 77 miles per hour. That knocked out power for a lot of residents at the time, including me and my folks, which lasted for about 6 or 7 hours.

According to the history data at KGEG, it was only a gust of 77mph, the sustained wind was only 62.1mph. 

Only 62.1 mph? That's still one heck of a windstorm. That's around the strongest I've been in - although we never lost power.

332

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 29, 2012, 06:59:37 PM »

When Mike Seidel was covering Isaac in Cuba he mentioned how in their government, if they told you to evacuate there was no ifs, ands, or buts about it. You were FORCED to leave on your own or they would bring a bus to pick you up and take you to safer ground because they want to limit the amount of deaths to near 0 as they can possibly do. Here, you either leave or the hell with you which is sad, it should be mandatory in a mandatory evacuation that people like the elderly for example should be provided transportation so they can leave.

As a guy who believes in natural selection, I am okay with this. Let the people who want to stay risk their lives while everyone else wisely gets out of town. Sorry if this sounds cruel.

333

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 26, 2012, 09:37:28 PM »

Latest Dvorak estimate is 3.6 with estimated pressure at 985 mb. VMax is now 57 knots.

334

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 26, 2012, 07:31:11 PM »

A few things I wanted to note about SPC:

1) Anyone else like their little tab strictly dedicated to products in relation to Tropical Storm Isaac?
2) Starting September 25, the Day 3 Convective Outlooks will contain general thunderstorm lines, just like Days 1 and 2.
3) Starting September 26, the Thunderstorm Outlooks, which have been experimental for the last year or so, become fully operational.

335

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 25, 2012, 10:52:10 PM »

The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.

Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?

336

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: August 25, 2012, 01:33:34 AM »

69 with a severe thunderstorm. Was caught out in the road with quarter-sized hail and very gusty winds. The entire city of Grand Forks was out of power until a few minutes ago. A severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 1:15 AM CDT.

337

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Central 2012

« on: August 24, 2012, 02:00:35 AM »

We should probably see it as a blessing, but just to note that the Atlantic has not seen a Category 5 hurricane since Felix, which was back in 2007. We'll have to keep watch on things for the rest of the year, but assuming nothing big really blows up, we could go 5 years without a Category 5 hurricane.

338

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 23, 2012, 10:58:23 PM »

Three changes in the new track:

1) Day 1-3 forecast track has been shifted eastward.
2) Track is assuming a faster forward speed and now points to landfall on Tuesday evening.
3) Forecast landfall point has been shifted west yet again to due south of Mobile, AL - a few more shifts and it could be headed towards Louisiana.

EDIT: Geez, seems like EVERYONE was waiting on this track to come out.

339

Hurricane Central / Re: Tropical Storm Joyce

« on: August 23, 2012, 04:54:41 PM »

THIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL
STORM OF A SEASON.  IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22
AUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.

This was from the 11 AM Forecast Discussion.

340

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 23, 2012, 04:53:31 PM »

Isaac weakened earlier today and winds are back to 40 mph as of 2 PM this afternoon. Assuming terrain doesn't get in the way, the conditions across Isaac's forecast path are ideal for rapid intensification and the storm could still become a hurricane within the next 2 days.

It is important to note that NHC's intensity forecast is very bullish, as their forecast is well above the majority of the intensity model spread.

Satellite presentation looks better and Dvorak numbers are at 3.0 which is indicative of winds to 45 knots. Combined with recon data which has max winds of 47 knots at the vortex, I will take a guess that Isaac's estimated winds will be back up to 40 knots - 45 mph at 5 PM. As on track, I suspect a continuation of the previous track with a slight adjustment to the west yet again.

341

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 22, 2012, 04:27:46 PM »

Good track, Tavores. I would put the landfall point just a tad bit more east (50-75 miles or so) at this point instead of at the GA/AL border, but again, it depends on how much more the tracks shift west.

Looks like it is gonna be windy and wet for the Republicans in Tampa, regardless.

342

Hurricane Central / Re: Hurricane Isaac

« on: August 21, 2012, 12:32:36 PM »

Hmm...well, it's still fair game for the East Coast, but looking at the 11 AM advisory forecast track it looks like Isaac would track into the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico along western Florida. Again, we'll see what happens, but right now the forecast turn for Isaac will not be soon enough to scrape the Eastern Seaboard.

343

General Weather Chat / Re: What's the weather in your area?

« on: August 20, 2012, 10:55:00 AM »

60 and clear. Last night's low was a brisk 41 degrees.

344

General Discussion / Re: The Front Porch

« on: August 20, 2012, 01:18:03 AM »

Classes start tomorrow at 4 PM. Guess who has a class right at 4 PM on Monday. 

345

General Discussion / Re: Your class schedule...

« on: August 19, 2012, 05:12:48 PM »

Monday
Calc 1: 10:00 - 10:50 AM
Computer Science: 4:00 - 6:00 PM

Tuesday
Calc 1: 10:00 - 10:50 AM
Synoptic Meteorology (210): 12:30 - 1:45 PM
Computer Science: 3:00 - 4:15 PM

Wednesday
Synoptic Meteorology Lab: 3:00 - 4:50 PM

Thursday
Same as Tuesday

Friday
Calc 1: 10:00 - 10:50 AM

Working on adding Aviation Meteorology or Meteorological Instrumentation into the mix - possibly both. Right now this is 12 credits. I would love to bump it up to 15 or even 18 if I can.